I almost did it. It’s now in almost perfect condition.
Of course, not in a good way. I almost didn’t get a win, but that seems unlikely until you consider the type of season I’ve had picking games here. Only the Los Angeles Rams saved me by beating the Vikings for my ATS pick. So that week it was 1-5. It’s terrible, but it’s better than O-fer. I also went 3-3 straight up.
As a result, my season record was 181-97-0, and my ATS was a disappointing 129-143-6.
So much for a .500 ATS for the year. With seven games remaining, that ship has sailed.
But let’s see if we can close out the season with a bit of a bang. I have three favorite dogs this week, which goes against the NFL trend of favorites covering all season, but that’s how I feel about the divisional round of the playoffs.
It can’t get any worse than last week. right?
Saturday, 4:30pm ET (ABC/ESPN, Fubo is free to try)
The Chiefs needed three weeks of rest. But will the rest cause rust? I don’t think that’s a problem for this veteran group.
The Texans defeated the Chargers at home last week and were impressed with how the offense showed some vitality, but the defense also had a huge production. A similar defensive effort is required here as well. These teams met in Kansas City in December, with the Chiefs winning 27-19. In last week’s win over the Chargers, the Texans pressured Justin Herbert into four turnovers. But being under that kind of pressure is always a challenge for Patrick Mahomes. Can they put enough pressure on him to slow him down and force it?
The Chiefs have had issues with their offensive line this season, but they have improved over the past month. That leads to a more comfortable Mahomes. Look for the Chiefs to start their offense with Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy on the field together. Their defense will get the most out of the Texans offensive line. That led to a turnover by C.J. Stroud, and the Chiefs were back in the AFC Championship Game.
Designated players: Chiefs 30, Texans 21
Bonus: SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein, who has a 30-14 bet on the Chiefs, agrees with me that these teams will be over. But which club has the edge when it comes to the spread? Visit SportsLine to find out.
Saturday, 8pm ET (Try Fox, Fubo for free)
This should be a high score. The Lions are dynamic offensively, but have issues defensively. The Commanders, with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, should also be able to score.
Daniels will be more exciting on the inside on high-speed courses. But the Lions will get similar results. The managers may not be ready to win games like this, especially in this environment, but they will persevere. Daniels is good.
Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will give Daniels a lot of looks, but he’ll hold on and make some big plays with his feet against blitzes. However, in the end, the Lions will emerge victorious due to their strong offensive line led by Jared Goff. He’s going to take some big shots all over the field against the Commanders secondary to get the win.
Picks: Lions 34, Commanders 31
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model enters the NFL Divisional Round with a 31-15 record among the NFL’s top picks and is confident one team will cover the spread on Saturday night. Check out SportsLine to see which clubs the models are rooting for.
Sunday, 3pm ET (NBC, Fubo is free to try)
The Rams are breaking away from the physical domination of the Vikings, who have impressed on both sides of the ball. The Eagles defeated the Packers and won with an overwhelming defense.
The Eagles’ plan here is simple, and it’s the one they used when they beat the Rams earlier this year: Get rid of Saquon Barkley once and for all. In late November, he gained 255 yards and two scores as the Eagles defeated the Rams 35-20. But this Rams team is better than that one. The defense has grown. It won’t be so easy this time. The Eagles will have to throw better than Jalen Hurts did last week.
When it comes to the Rams offense, Matthew Stafford is one of the best postseason quarterbacks of all time. That’s important to Vic Fangio’s plans. In the end, the Eagles will win. But it will be much closer than the first meeting.
Pick: Eagles 23, Rams 20
Bonus: The SportsLine projection model has an A-rated bet for this NFC battle, hitting in over 58% of simulations. Check it out on Sportsline.
Sunday, 6:30pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is the game of the week for many, with two top MVP candidates in Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson and Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Both players have been outstanding this season and have led the team to this point.
The Ravens defeated the Bills in Week 4 of this season with a dominant 35-10 performance. That game was a Sunday night home game for the Ravens, and the Ravens used that to their advantage. This is a road game with difficult locations to play, making it more challenging.
I expect both defenses to be better than the last time they met. The Ravens changed things up by moving Kyle Hamilton to full-time safety, and he helped turn around the defense. The Bills were without starting linebackers Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard, as well as nickel corner Taron Johnson, for that game, and Derrick Henry was outstanding that night.
This game will be determined by whether the defense plays its best and gets turnovers. I think it will be the Bills. I think Allen will continue to take care of the football and make big plays in the passing game and that’s how we beat the Ravens. The Bills would forever win on a late field goal by Tyler Bass.
Pick: Bills 31, Ravens 30
Bonus: SportsLine expert Mike Tierney has a 53-27-2 record when betting on the Baltimore Ravens, calling it one of the most anticipated divisional round games in recent memory. We are putting effort towards. Visit SportsLine to see which teams AFC powerhouse Tierney is up against.
