WEdnes Day, November 9, 2016: A drizzly, drizzly day in Washington, D.C., traumatized by overwhelming Democratic voters after Donald Trump’s shock victory in the previous day’s election. Among the guests who had lunch at the residence that day was an avowed Trump supporter, a rarity in Washington. I took him aside and asked him whether Mr. Trump was going to be as radical and destructive as the giants of American political journalism predicted. “Not at all,” he said. “I know the guy. All that red meat was just for the campaign. I expect him to govern as a mainstream Republican.”
On Wednesday, November 6, 2024, the story moves to London. I’m at business dinners talking about election results and what happens next. I refer to President Trump’s pledge to impose a 20% tariff on all imports into the United States. One participant said he had just talked to a friend from Arizona who knows President Trump personally. This friend said: President Trump will use tariffs as a threat to persuade countries to act to balance trade flows. ” Another participant said: “Mr. Trump won a second term, so he doesn’t have to fight anymore. Surely he’ll settle down and focus on his legacy?”
There are 100 questions to ask about this election. Why were the polls so wrong? Why was Joe Biden allowed to run and farm fields for others when he was so clearly getting away with it? Why has Kamala Harris done such a devastating disservice among Hispanic and African American men, but is it really just because she’s a woman? And what does it say about Western democracies that the most important election of all was won by someone whose truth is far away and rarely visited? But the most pressing question for the UK is how the government should prepare for Trump 2.0.
Trump is truly unpredictable. He thrives on chaos and disorder, and actually creates it on purpose. It is impossible to be certain how he will behave or speak when he returns to the Oval Office. But at the dinner table in London, the prediction that a new, more moderate Trump would retreat from his campaign rhetoric strikes me as more of a triumph of hope than experience. The lesson of his first term is that he will pretty much do what he sets out to do.
The British government made a smart start, thanks in part to the excellent work of its Washington embassy, including the phone call and dinner at Trump Tower after the assassination attempt. But Trump expects people to sue him. Rewards usually don’t last. Therefore, although foundation work is necessary, it does not guarantee anything. Difficult times lie ahead, especially regarding climate change, tariffs, and Ukraine.
Inhaling is considered weakness. Speaking up may elicit some sharp reactions at first, but you can eventually win some respect.
On climate change, President Trump will pull the US out of the Paris Agreement and increase oil and gas exploitation. The world is already woefully behind on its goal of reaching net zero by 2050, and a US withdrawal from Paris will make this worse. Although not all the damage can be undone, a partial remedy is to work with the U.S. states, especially environmentally conscious California.
Regarding tariffs, I expect the opposite of mere threats. I think President Trump will immediately impose tariffs on all imports from the United States and say, “If you want us to eliminate tariffs, we want you to come up with something to balance trade.” The EU will almost certainly retaliate. And Britain will face difficult decisions. Are they comparable to the EU’s retaliatory tariffs? Or will they seek bilateral agreements such as free trade agreements? I think President Trump will propose an FTA like he did in 2017. But the biggest demand in the US, then as now, would be unrestricted access to the UK market for hormone-treated, low-cost products of the US agricultural sector. Contains beef and chlorine-washed chicken. The tough choice will therefore be between siding with the EU or sacrificing agriculture.
As for Ukraine, President Trump’s plans appear to include a ceasefire, the creation of a demilitarized zone between the two fronts, and the start of negotiations for a permanent peace agreement. However, J.D. Vance suggested that Russia may retain the captured territory and that Ukraine may have to promise never to join NATO. In short, it looks defeated. I don’t think President Zelensky will accept that, and I expect he will later appeal to Europe to backfill the rejected American weapons. Therefore, the prime minister is once again forced to make a difficult decision. Will we rally Europe to reject America’s ideas and increase support for Ukraine, or will we fold our tents, accept defeat and go home?
Three points emerge from this rigorous analysis. First, Democrats continue to misread the American electorate. After the devastation of inflation over the past four years, the biggest issue in this election will always be “the economy, stupid.” But they never had a coherent and convincing plan, and Harris could never escape the shadow of Biden’s record. Instead, they have taken the lead on issues such as reproductive rights, unaware of the damage this is doing to their standing in the once-Democrat-loyal but socially conservative Hispanic community. That ended up having a big impact on Trump, resulting in a 14 point increase over his 2020 result. There is a lesson here for centrist parties across Europe. Focus on broad voter concerns rather than issues that energize your own base, which means stop talking to yourself.
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Second, we will soon face a crucial decision about whether to side with Europe or with the isolationist and protectionist United States. And on these two issues, our beliefs and values are directed towards Europe. In this context, the government’s painfully slow and minimalist approach to the UK/EU reset is not enough. We need to conclude a UK/EU security agreement soon to put structures and processes in place to deal with future challenges. And despite the current political turmoil, we need a stronger bilateral partnership with France and Germany.
And third, governments need to prepare for the inevitable storm ahead. Back in November 2017, President Trump retweeted an Islamophobic video from the clear blue skies of Washington by a far-right group called Britain First ambushing Prime Minister Theresa May on a tour of Africa. Asked for comment by British media, she said the president “was wrong to do this.” Trump initially raged that Prime Minister Theresa May should focus on fighting “radical Islamic terrorism” in Britain, but later backtracked in an interview with Piers Morgan and offered a semi-apology. And although they were never soulmates, there was an undercurrent of respect from Trump in subsequent encounters. Lesson: Being vulnerable is seen as weakness, and speaking up may elicit a sharp reaction at first, but it can ultimately earn you some respect.
In that context, storm clouds are gathering over already existing headline issues. Since his election victory, Trump has reaffirmed his intention to deport 10 million illegal immigrants as a top priority. Imagine what this would look like. Knocks on the door in the middle of the night, children being taken away from school, concentration camps, legal problems, difficult negotiations with the country they are being sent to. In 2018, the story of “Children in Cages” went global. This will get even bigger. And imagine interference in the Prime Minister’s questions by Keir Starmer’s own aides rather than Kemi Badenoch. Will the Prime Minister condemn these inhumane policies? It’s not easy.
