The US election results are extremely important for the Middle East, first and foremost a victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Prime Minister Netanyahu has made no secret of his desire for Trump to win.
The Biden administration has waited until after the election to apply meaningful pressure on the Israeli prime minister, despite growing dissatisfaction with him over multiple issues, including blocking aid to Gaza, campaigning against the United Nations, and interfering with the hostage crisis. I had put off putting it on. -Peace agreements and government support for violent settlers in the West Bank.
This capitalizes on what progressive Democrats have been pleading with Joe Biden throughout the 13 months of the Gaza conflict. Anger over the use of American bombs to destroy Gaza played a role in Kamala Harris’ defeat in Michigan and other areas with the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the United States. Now, even if America’s overwhelming influence in the region were finally unleashed, it would be too late to have any meaningful impact.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin sent a letter to the Israeli government last month detailing obstruction of humanitarian aid to Gaza and objecting to Israeli efforts to shut down U.N. relief agency Unrwa. . The letter gave Israel 30 days, until after the U.S. presidential election, to change course or face restrictions under U.S. law on U.S. arms supplies.
The deadline expires on Nov. 12, at which point the U.S. could restrict the flow of weapons if the electoral risk has passed. However, the outcome of the US election will have little or no impact on Netanyahu’s government. Just wait for President Trump’s inauguration on January 20th.
The next government will almost certainly not defend Umruwa. President Trump cut U.S. funding to the agency in 2018, but Biden finally reinstated it three years later. There is a good chance that the United Nations and its entire relief efforts in the region will face a funding crisis.
The return of the Trump administration also removes substantial barriers to Israel’s full control and possible annexation of at least parts of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. The president-elect has shown that he is not burdened by international law and UN Security Council resolutions when it comes to territory. The government recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights in 2019.
It is not entirely clear who will lead Middle East policy in the new Trump administration, but the president-elect is surrounded by prominent supporters of the settler movement. That includes his son-in-law Jared Kushner (who is speaking the truth). Gaza’s “Waterfront Real Estate” Real Estate Potential) and former Ambassador to Israel David Friedman have proposed Israel’s divinely inspired right to occupy the West Bank as part of his new job application to the incoming administration. It took the form of a book that praised it.
The boost given to Israel’s far-right annexationist forces could be the most immediate and significant ramifications of Trump’s victory for the Middle East, as it could redraw the map.
President Trump’s return will likely strengthen Prime Minister Netanyahu in domestic politics as well, accelerating efforts to transform Israel into a more illiberal state. For example, he won’t hear complaints from fellow populists in Washington about his campaign to weaken the strength and independence of the judiciary.
But the return of a close ally to the Oval Office does not give Netanyahu complete freedom. Unlike Biden, Trump does not have to fear that the Israeli prime minister might hurt him politically at home. The new power relationship between the United States and Israel will be more unilateral, and the new president’s influence will be many times greater than his predecessor.
In a letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the height of his election campaign, President Trump said he would most likely accept an outcome favorable to Israel, such as military control of the Gaza Strip, but that he would not be able to complete the Gaza operation in the Gaza Strip before taking office. He has made it clear that he wants to end it. strip.
The returning president also made clear that he wants a quick deal in Lebanon if one is not reached during the final lame-duck months of the Biden administration. Most importantly, Prime Minister Netanyahu is unsure whether President Trump would support a war to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, a strategic priority.
Any such conflict would likely involve the United States, and an aversion to wars abroad has been a consistent element of President Trump’s often volatile foreign policy. On the one hand, it goes beyond Prime Minister Netanyahu’s considerable powers of persuasion to convince former and future presidents that bombing Iran will provide a quick and easy victory over a regime that U.S. intelligence believes plotted to assassinate Netanyahu. It’s probably not impossible.
The other big winner in the Middle East on Tuesday night was the Saudi monarchy, which is deeply invested in the Trump family. He now has close allies in the White House who will push for a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel to add to the Abraham Accords with other Gulf states. Biden officials have invested vast amounts of time and energy trying to get the Saudi-Israeli deal done, and have long suspected that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was waiting for a Trump presidency. .
But with Gaza flattened and more than 43,000 Palestinians killed, it will not be easy for the prince to strike a deal with Netanyahu.
However, hesitation may be temporary. The forces of convergence between the Gulf monarchies and the increasingly illiberal United States and Israel are likely to be more powerful over the next four years than concerns about the plight of the Palestinians.
