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Presidential election prediction markets continue to tilt in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris, with opinion polls showing the two candidates as close to evenly matched, and for the first time in nearly a month, odds on one betting site are lower than Donald Trump. That’s more than former President Trump.
Election prediction markets have recently been leaning toward Harris as Election Day approaches.
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PredictIt on Tuesday gave Harris a 51% chance of victory, marking the first time on the site since Oct. 9 that the vice president has a lead over Trump, who is trailing Harris at 49% odds.
Other betting markets still support Trump in the presidential election. Trump leads Harris 59.5% to 40.6% in polymarkets, 56% to 44% in calci (Harris rose 1 point on Saturday) and 58.2% to 40.9% in market.
Harris in recent days as Trump’s odds fell 4.1% to a seven-day low of 56.3%, according to Election Betting Odds, which tracks four market movements, and Betfair, which supports Trump. He has regained some ground in the implicit odds of the election. Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris have a nearly 60% chance of winning.
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49%. That’s the odds a model based on FiveThirtyEight polls gives Harris, suggesting she would win 49 out of 100 election simulations, below Trump’s 50%. . The Economist puts Harris with a 52-48% lead over Trump, with 52 out of 100 simulations suggesting she would win.
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Amid the close race between Harris and Trump, election gambling has soared in popularity as the odds shift in Trump’s favor. Some experts argue that betting markets are an indicator of election results, while others believe that bettors are incentivized to make their predictions come true. Nate Silver, an analyst at Polymarket, a polling firm whose latest predictions favor Harris, said retail traders are likely to lean politically to the right, which tilts the odds toward Trump. He points out that this could bias the situation in one’s favor. Recently, some markets, such as Robinhood and Interactive Brokers, have launched their own election betting platforms, while sites like Calci are using the federal government’s pre-emptive system to allow users to bet on US elections. rights are recognized.
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