(The Center Square) – Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will face off at the polls Tuesday for majorities in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.
This election cycle has seen unusual coalitions and demographic shifts not seen in recent elections.
Billionaire Elon Musk joined former Democratic Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard and former Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in endorsing Trump this time.
Meanwhile, Harris is on the campaign trail with former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney, the daughter of former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney, marking another clash between the iconic Kennedy and Cheney brands. becomes a confrontation from the opposite side.
These changes have been accompanied by President Trump’s unusual demographic inroads, with men shifting toward Republicans and women favoring Democrats, and the gap between men and women clearly widening. .
Labor union members, Hispanic voters, and black voters have traditionally supported Democrats, and President Trump was able to rally their support in this election.
“He changed the composition of the Republican coalition, including former Democrats,” campaign veteran and former Mitt Romney press secretary Ryan Williams told Center Square. “And if you have a close race in a purple state, you’re going to have to try to appeal to those voters and try to split the ticket.”
According to polls, Harris enjoys about 80% support among black voters nationwide. Former President Barack Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and President Joe Biden were all able to win between 90% and 95% support among black voters.
Mr. Trump increased his support slightly among black voters and made even better progress among Hispanic voters.
As The Center Square previously reported, Noble Predictive Insights released a new poll on Tuesday showing Harris beating Trump 78% to 20% among Black voters and 50% to 45% among Hispanic voters. Reported to be in the lead.
“He’s reminiscent of President Bush’s numbers in 2004,” said Williams, now at Target Victory, adding that former President George W. He mentioned the time when he got 44%.
“Mr. Trump can reach out and connect with these voters in a way that my former boss, Mitt Romney, could not,” Williams continued. “I’m not saying Republicans will win in these groups, but the Republican lead will narrow. That’s why I think this race is so close right now.
“Trump’s success in cutting into traditional Democratic constituencies and closing the gap has effectively led to close races in so many states,” he added.
Demographic realignment will have a major impact on the opposition votes in the House and Senate elections, where 33 Senate seats will be contested. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election every two years.
In the Senate, Democrats hold about twice as many seats as Republicans, painting a difficult picture for the party. According to betting markets, the Republican Party is also considered the leading candidate for the US House of Representatives.
Democrats are working hard to reconnect with black voters, with Harris rolling out new policies and even Obama chiding black men who won’t vote for her.
Last month, President Obama urged a gathering of black men to vote for Harris, suggesting he would not support her because she is a woman, a comment that sparked backlash and criticism from Democrats.
“With all due respect, President Obama, what you said is unacceptable,” ESPN’s most famous host, Stephen A. Smith, who is black, said on one of his shows after the remarks. “Is it possible that the reason some black people were disinclined to vote, became a little disillusioned, even dared to vote for Trump, was policy rather than misogyny?
“Doesn’t inflation, the cost of living, gas prices, food prices matter?” he continued. “What about immigration and the border and the idea that there’s a heightened sensitivity to immigration and the border as opposed to Black people who are struggling, if not starving, in this country? Yes, that also plays a role. I am fulfilling it.”
