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Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot raised a lot of eyebrows when he selected Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth pick in last spring’s draft. This seemed like an odd choice considering that just a few weeks earlier, Atlanta had signed free agent Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract.
On Sunday, the Falcons, who are 7-7 and still in contention for the NFC South title, will begin to learn whether there was a method to this madness by replacing the ineffective Cousins with Penix in their home game against the Giants. It will be.
Cousins, 36, has struggled through a repaired Achilles tendon, but he has become slow and indecisive. He’s probably the main reason the Falcons have lost four of their last five games, recording one touchdown pass, nine interceptions and 11 sacks in that span.
No one knows if Penix will be great or terrible. He’s probably somewhere in between. I’m going to bet 8.5 against the long-gone Giants to find out.
Penix has only thrown five passes in the NFL, but he threw 1,685 of those passes for 13,741 yards in six college seasons at Indiana and Washington State. He knows what he’s doing and should be able to unleash Atlanta’s offensive weapons Bijan Robinson, Drake Rondon, Kyle Pitts and Tyler Allgaier better than Cousins.
Contender: Falcons -8.5.
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) vs. New York Jets
My first desire was to ride with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams the week after their first breakout performance as Jets. After all, it will be a very Lambeau-esque 24 degrees at MetLife on Sunday, and the Rams have been practicing in temperatures in the 70s and 80s.
Consider the Jets’ other top players braving the cold in places like Ames, Iowa, and Madison, Wisconsin. And Columbus, Ohio, and you start thinking they might thrive.
But on the other side, the Rams are in first place in the NFC West and desperately trying to hold on to that spot, or a playoff spot. They have a QB/coach tandem in Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay who have won a Super Bowl together. And they have a fierce running attack combined with a short and accurate passing game that shouldn’t be affected too much by conditions.
Saturday
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Houston Texans
To be honest, when it looked like Carson Wentz was going to replace Patrick Mahomes, I was more interested in making the Chiefs a +3 underdog at home. But with Mahomes’ ankle checking out, we’re back in the familiar position of hoping Kansas City has enough coverage. I think they will this time around, as defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will be targeting a pedestrian Houston offense that is a little lighter on numbers than usual and has questions about Joe Mixon’s availability.
Baltimore Ravens (-6) vs. Steelers
The spread may look huge in this AFC North matchup, and even after last week’s 27-13 loss to Philadelphia, Mike Tomlin still likes to side as the underdog with 65.5 percent coverage. It will be. However, injuries are slowly starting to decline for the Steelers. Without George Pickens, the offense has disappeared, averaging just 215 yards per game over the past two weeks. TJ Watt has an ankle issue but was not listed as injured for this game.
Sunday
Detroit Lions (-6.5) vs. Chicago Bears
Don’t worry too much about Chicago’s chilly, rainy weather, the absence of David Montgomery, and the rash of injuries to Detroit’s defense. The Lions are 12-2 in the NFC against the Eagles and Vikings and have more than enough firepower to take away a Bears team that averaged 14.75 ppg in eight games.
Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
Over the past six games, the Bengals are averaging 34 points. They are just 3-3 in that span, but will return home to face Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who will be making his third attempt as the Browns’ starting quarterback. Let’s just hope Myles Garrett doesn’t get a clean shot from a battered Joe Burrow.
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee, which has an NFL-worst 2-12 ATS, switched from Will Revis to Mason Rudolph. That could be an upgrade, but the Titans have injury concerns with Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd, and Nick Westbrook. This feels like a reasonable number to support Shane Steichen, who is 8-4 ATS, as the Colts’ favorite to win the championship.
Washington Commanders (+3.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Commanders had a 10-3 lead in the third quarter of a game against Philadelphia on November 14th, but Saquon Barkley made a big mistake and the Eagles won 26-18. Don’t mind rooting for Jaden Daniels and the home dogs in the division spot for Revenge.
Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
Carolina had a good run with five consecutive underdog coverages, but was dragged into the championship category by Dallas last week, allowing 149 rushing yards to Rico Doodle and three touchdown passes to Cooper Rush. The Cowboys are looking to pick up where they left off with James Conner and Kyler Murray.
Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle had won four straight games before losing 30-13 at home to the Packers on Sunday night. Geno Smith, who is out with a knee injury, will also play, but that could prevent him from playing. Injuries have plagued running backs Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, with Walker missing the last two games and Charbonnet suffering an oblique injury. Tough spot for Brian Flores’ defense and Justin Jefferson’s offense.
Buffalo Bills (-14) vs. New England Patriots
After posting -16.5 against the Ravens last week, I feel a little more courageous to put up such a big number. The expected temperature in Orchard Park is 17 degrees with a chance of snow. Josh Allen and the Bills laugh off such situations. For an opponent with 3 wins and 11 losses, I don’t think this is a place you want to spend three hours on.
San Francisco 49ers (+1) vs. Miami Dolphins
Miami’s midweek injured list included Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Terron Armstead, with Waddle listed as questionable. The Niners have had similar concerns all season, but expect to hear from Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel and Co. again before it’s all over.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Jaguars are still competing and look like a somewhat capable team offensively, led by WR Brian Thomas Jr. They should jump at this chance to get a rare win against the Raiders. The Raiders are already stocking food and provisions in the recruiting room. drink.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys
There are two things that stood out to me about last week’s Bucks-Chargers win. First, Baker Mayfield really knows how to use Mike Evans and Bucky Irving. And two, their offense was stronger than any defense I’ve seen this season. I don’t think the Cowboys will survive three hours of corporal punishment.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
Monday
New Orleans Saints (+14.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
The Saints have covered three of their past five spreads and haven’t lost by more than a touchdown since losing by four straight double digits from Weeks 5 to 8. I don’t see them as a bottom team in the class of the Giants, Titans, and Raiders. And while the Packers need a game, there’s no urgency to beat the Saints by this much.
Best bets: Jaguars, Falcons, Cardinals.
Lock of the Week: Jaguars (2024 Lock 8-7).
Last week: 8-8 overall, best bet 1-2.
Thursday: Broncos (left).
