A top political handicapper changed his assessment of the pivotal Pennsylvania Senate race Monday, suggesting Democratic Sen. Bob Casey’s chances of re-election are diminishing.
The Cook Political Report reveals two rating changes about two weeks after Election Day, indicating increased competition in both Pennsylvania and Nebraska, where independent candidates could unseat incumbent Republicans. suggested.
The race between incumbent Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick is currently considered a “toss-up” in Pennsylvania, according to handicappers. The fight was previously described as “lean Democratic.”
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Bob Casey (left) and Dave McCormick (AP | Reuters)
Part of Cook’s justification was that McCormick was “strengthening the Republican base and making gains in the western part of the state.” The paper also noted that while polls show Casey with a several-point advantage over his opponent, internal Democratic and Republican polls say the race is within the margin of error.
Casey’s race is currently in the same category as Senate races in Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.
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Casey leads McCormick by just a single digit. (Bastian Slavbars/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The change in ratings comes as the presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually neck-and-neck in battleground states. Split votes are becoming increasingly rare, and the party that wins the White House is very likely to win the Senate race as well.
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McCormick has been endorsed by President Trump. (Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)
A recent New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll found Mr. Casey beating Mr. McCormick among likely voters, 48% to 44%. The survey was conducted from October 7th to October 10th among 857 Pennsylvania voters. The margin of error was +/- 3.8 percentage points.
Republicans have also been hit by ratings fluctuations, with Sen. Deb Fischer’s race in Nebraska on the move again, showing a rapidly developing close race. The matchup has changed from “Republican-like” to “Republican-like.”
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Mr. Osborne (left) is running as an independent and is challenging Mr. Fisher’s re-election. (Reuters)
Independent candidate Dan Osborne, a trade union leader and mechanic, appears to have surprised Fisher’s re-election campaign with his popularity just weeks after the election. No Democratic candidate was nominated in this election.
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Despite the notable challenges, “we still think the state’s deep red will prevail, Republicans will attack Democratic efforts to quietly boost Osborne’s rise, and Mr. Fisher will cross the finish line.” wrote Mr. Cook.
Mr. Fisher’s re-election bid is currently in the same category as Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).
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