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Fair warning: This is one of those “things to watch in 2025” that everyone does this time of year. And you probably don’t want to see anything. Maybe you’ve already seen too much.
Understood. AdImpact, which tracks political spending on the airwaves, says Pittsburgh’s media market ranks fifth in the nation for election ad buys in 2024. But hey, vacation is over and things are about to start. We might even get used to it.
So here are five things we may all need to pay attention to this year.
1. How will senators adjust to life in President Donald Trump’s Washington?
After last year’s defeat of Sen. Bob Casey, Pennsylvania’s two senators are unexpired. And both will have to negotiate the challenges of Trump’s return to the White House.
First-term Democratic Sen. John Fetterman has already shown signs of being interested in MAGA. He criticizes Trump’s successful prosecution (as well as posts on Trump’s social media site TruthSocial!) and is a rare look at a softer side of Trump’s nominee, FBI Director Kash Patel. He is also a Democrat. He has publicly voiced Trump’s willingness to carry water, among other things, sounding the alarm.
Despite this apostasy, Mr. Fetterman has been a solid Democratic vote-getter. But from now on, the Republican majority will decide what to vote on. And his moves will be seen through the lens of the 2028 presidential election — help me say this –. A potential bid by Mr. Fetterman, which was only whispered about and predicted in the field a year ago, is now being openly discussed.
Meanwhile, newly elected Sen. Dave McCormick won the seat by a narrow margin, arguing that Mr. Casey voted too much in lockstep with President Joe Biden…Mr. McCormick has frequently sided with Mr. Trump. Despite appearing in Since his election, he has championed causes such as more energy-friendly policies and voter ID, policies that are popular with Republicans without antagonizing moderates. But how much independence will Mr. McCormick show when President Trump pushes the envelope?
2. How ugly will the Pittsburgh mayoral race get?
The new showdown between Mayor Ed Gainey and challenger Corey O’Connor isn’t the only race this year. There will be races to choose between open City Council seats and about 473 judicial candidates. County council elections? But this is going to be the biggest game in town.
Mr. O’Connor’s campaign campaign last month was surprisingly combative, peppered with sharp criticism of Mr. Gainey’s record. And even though, as we’ve noted many times in this magazine, some of the most controversial issues, such as the rise in homelessness and the difficulty of hiring police officers, are national issues, Gainey has withstood such attacks for a long time.
Mr. Gainey reacted harshly to Mr. O’Connor’s entry, but those in the mayor’s camp have quietly maintained that the mild-mannered Mr. O’Connor had never run in a tough, high-profile race, and that he I have doubts about how well it can withstand punches. . In any case, look for groups to do their part by spending outside money, as they did in the last mayoral election. Pittsburgh’s strict campaign finance rules prevent large sums of money from being donated directly to campaigns. But groups that spend their own money on behalf of candidates have no limits on the donations they can accept, and there are few political constraints on the attacks they can wage.
3. Can Harrisburg accomplish something big?
My prediction last year, which didn’t come true, was that Pennsylvania would finally join neighboring states in raising its minimum wage. It didn’t happen. In fact, last year was the least productive year in Congress in recent memory.
To be fair, the recent state budget passed without much drama, but that’s a big win in Harrisburg. And last year’s budget provided at least a down payment on expanding education funding. Among other efforts, a bipartisan effort to curb the power of drug industry middlemen moved from Pittsburgh’s backyard to the governor’s desk.
But they are not the result of big-ticket signatures like, say, the full legalization of marijuana. This is also an area where Pennsylvania tried and failed last year to catch up with its neighbors. Many of Gov. Josh Shapiro’s hat-in-cheek accomplishments, such as streamlining regulatory processes and quickly rebuilding Philadelphia’s crumbling roads, were achieved without legislative support.
Perhaps this year will be different, but the state Senate is once again in Republican hands, while Democrats have a one-vote majority in the House. At least until a special election is held, we can already predict that a single withdrawal could lead to a deadlock in the chamber.
4. Do voters care about preserving the judiciary?
Three justices on the state’s seven-member Supreme Court face an up-or-down Remain vote on a vote choice voters rarely think about. But the three judges appointed next year are all Democrats, marking this year’s Remain vote as a new front in the eternal war of modern American politics. Weird memes are already starting to land among conservatives.
The issues they are raising may seem fairly niche, relying on long-standing issues such as court rulings on the 2020 vote-by-mail issue and support for COVID-19 shutdowns. Most people might have let that go, but then… most people don’t think about judicial retention at all. This is the type of low-interest content that rewards the motivated demographic, even though the long-term effects can be significant for everyone.
Democratic leaders say they are extremely wary of the fight, even at the national level. Will their voters do that?
5. When will older white men start sharing the spotlight?
Here I can provide a partial answer. Going forward, this newsletter will have fewer signatures from me and more signatures from my colleagues covering the local, state, and federal levels of government. Doing so should open up space for new voices and hopefully yield a better outcome for Democrats than the departure of Joe Biden. May the same be true of all your endeavors in 2025.
