Russia has said it agrees to a limited ceasefire that will halt attacks on energy infrastructure. Kiev is a proposal that shows that it is open but has not yet officially approved. The agreement is the first important step towards de-escalation since the start of a full-scale war more than three years ago.
On Wednesday, Ukraine and Russia exchanged accusations of attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure the day after the proposed agreement was reported, highlighting the lack of trust between the two countries and how tenuous the contract is.
The strike against energy facilities was an important part of both countries’ efforts to undermine other countries. Russia launches repeated attacks on Ukrainian power grids, undermining war efforts by making life difficult for civilians. The Ukrainian strike against Russian facilities aims to reduce revenues of Russia’s vast oil industry.
Strategies behind the attack
Russia began attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in October 2022 after it was revealed that its initial plan to achieve a rapid victory had failed. Moscow chose the war of attrition, where Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was a key target.
Ukraine repeatedly targeted Russia’s energy infrastructure in early 2024, insulting the Russian economy (the oil and gas industry) and attempted to limit the supply of fuel to its military. The purpose of Kyiv appears to be two purposes, and experts are to reduce Russian oil revenues and create psychological effects by causing large-scale fires in critical infrastructure facilities.
The Russian attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was a key part of Moscow’s efforts to bring the country to its knees. According to energy experts, the goal was to suffocate the Ukrainian economy and, ultimately, the energy resources that fostered war efforts. But it also appears to be intended to make life so unbearable for people – plunging them into the cold and darkness, which destroys their morale.
Voldymir Kudritzkiy, former head of Ukrainian national power operator Ukrainian, said Russia has constantly changed its targets and tactics to undermine Ukraine’s ability to defend its energy system.
Moscow overwhelmed Kiev’s air defense using complex waves of long-range drones and ballistic missiles. After Ukraine began to strengthen its main current with concrete bunkers, Russia moved to attack the thermal power plants directly and attack few protected substations connected to the nuclear power plants.
Impact on Russia
Over the past year, Ukrainian drones have flowed deep into Russian territory, raiding oil refineries, depots, storage units, pipelines and pumping stations. The attacks have destroyed oil flows through Russia’s Seaport oil terminal and the Durzva pipeline, with some crude things in European countries.
It threatens to steal Moscow’s revenue from overseas energy sales. It was impossible to independently determine how much of Russia’s oil revenue was affected by the attack.
Attacks on oil refineries reduced the country’s refinery capacity by about 10% at one point, according to Reuters.
However, the Russian oil giant was also able to quickly fix some damages. The damage caused to Russian oil refineries was “never significant,” according to Mikhail Kurtikin, an independent Russian energy analyst who lives in exile in Oslo.
In a telephone interview, Krutikhin said that Russia is always able to redirect crude oil from damaged refineries because Russia has always had many refineries. Sometimes refineries had to start producing jet fuels that contained more sulfur, he said.
“This is bad for the environment, but fighter jets can keep flying,” Krutikhin said. However, he added that attacks can cause long-term damage as some parts of the oil refinery can take years to produce and install.
Sergei Vakrenko, an energy expert at the Carnegie Fund for International Peace, a research group, said Russian oil companies must spend less than $1 billion to repair the damage caused by the Ukrainian attack.
Impact on Ukraine
Since the fall of 2022, Moscow has repeatedly used drones and missiles to attack power plants that generate them, and more recently substations that distribute gas facilities.
The Kyiv School of Economics estimates that damage to Ukraine’s energy sector has reached at least $14.6 billion. Some hydro and thermal power generation have been completely destroyed by attacks.
By the end of last year, Ukraine’s power generation capacity had dropped to around 22 gigawatts, according to Dixi Group, a Ukrainian energy research institute.
The power shortage forced Ukraine to impose a nationwide rolling blackout to ease the burden on the grid. One day, the capital Kiev neighbourhood had only four hours of electricity. Many civilians rely on candles to light houses, and sail through unlit streets, relying on cell phone flashlights.
Water pump systems sometimes fail, and the flow of water to the home has been cut off, making it difficult for citizens to live. A long line was formed in Wells, Kiev, as residents brought jugs back to unheated apartments during the first winter of the war.
Still, Russia has failed to attempt to completely collapse the Ukrainian energy system. Ukraine withstanded 24-hour work by engineers and attacks that allowed them to repair critical equipment and energy-saving ingenuity, thanks to Western-supported air defenses that allowed more Russian missiles to be gradually intercepted.
Ukraine also relies on three operational nuclear power plants that Russia avoided targeting to prevent nuclear disasters in order to meet up to half the country’s electricity needs during a given period.
Who needs to get more?
Experts say it’s difficult to determine which countries will win more countries in order to win more countries from ceasefires of attacks targeting energy infrastructure.
Kudrytskyi said the pause would give Ukraine important time to repair substations and power plants without the threat of a new strike.
Also, the ceasefire will give Ukraine time to replenish its inventory of critical spare equipment, including valuable transformers needed to transfer electricity from the power plant to people’s homes. Ukraine burned stocks to replace damaged equipment.
For the Kremlin, the halt of Ukraine’s attacks would mean that the war and its effects seem even further than the Russian people. Moscow also no longer needs to worry that such attacks could undermine critical oil infrastructure.
