Packers Analysis: How to attack the Eagles on 4th down

We all know by now that Matt LaFleur has had a pretty dangerous year when it comes to fourth-down aggression. It was a strange development for a man who was one of the league leaders in fourth-down decision making for most of his career.

But we’re not here to talk about that. Mainly because it’s already featured so well in our Tex Western. Instead, in this space, I want to talk about how LaFleur will attack the Eagles on fourth down in this game. Because the regular season is over. The Packers are a No. 7 seed and will need to take a more aggressive approach on fourth down if they want to continue playing this season.

It won’t be easy against the Eagles. They have a good defense overall, ranking first in the league according to FTN’s DVOA, and it shows at No. 4 and shortstop. According to NFL Pros, the Eagles are third in the league in defensive EPA per play at 4th and short (“short” is defined as 1-2 yards), with -0.69 per play in those situations. EPA. He ranks 4th in rushing attempts (-0.46 EPA/play) and 8th in passing attempts (-0.97 EPA/play).

The Packers aren’t a great fourth down team, ranking 14th in the league in fourth and short (+0.50 EPA/Play). They are 24th in rushing attempts (-0.28 EPA/play) and 9th in passing attempts (+1.85 EPA/play).

Today, we’re helping them step up their attacks. I know they have some killer plays, but it couldn’t have hurt to throw in a few more. I went through all of the fourth down attempts against the Eagles this year and found a few that I think would work well for the Packers, and one that they probably won’t run, but was fun to draw.

Play 1: PA insert drive

Looking at the EPA numbers above, we see that the Eagles are weaker against 4th down passes, while the Packers are stronger. So let’s start there. The Jaguars got a first down with this nifty little concept.

They are made up of 11 players (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR), with the WRs split on both sides. Before the snap, the left WR drops to the insert position below the line and looks heavy to the left. If that happens, there will be too much burden on the left side defense.

At the snap, Trevor Lawrence sells a play fake and the receiver is released. From the left, the insert receiver releases on the middle crossing route and the outside receiver releases below it.

Between the overloaded defense and the linebackers pulling up for Gatt’s run-up threat, there was space for two receivers to release on the right side, and Lawrence hit one for a first down.

I’d adjust it a bit for the Packers and add another option if the crosser isn’t open. Considering the formation and receiver release, I thought it made sense to add an Arches route to Tucker Craft. Once the middle of the field is cleared by the defense running across the route, simply release Craft into that space. This gives the love the option to fall back if the crosser is locked up. I’ve seen the Packers run Arches on third down, so I feel like adding Arches here would make it easier.

Play 2: Zone Read

I know the Packers have this in their strategy, but I haven’t seen them do it this year. At least, I don’t see Love pulling the ball (or the plays they call aren’t true zone reads).

A zone read puts the QB in shotgun and splits the RB to this side. In this rep for the Bucs, the running back is set to the right of Baker Mayfield. Mayfield puts the ball in the RB’s stomach and reads the defensive end. Once the ends stay in place on the line, Mayfield runs up the middle and passes the ball to the RB. If the end crashes and takes a run, as he does here, the QB pulls the ball and scoots around the edge, past the spot vacated by the defensive end.

Nothing too crazy here. This is where we call Zone Read. This version I saw on Willis has a triple option, but I’ll leave it as is for now.

Play 3: Sneak Variation

No 4-and-shortstop package is complete without a QB sneak. A simple sneaky move is enough, but there are many other variations.

For me, if I’m running in sneaks, I want to get to the line quickly. That means having a clear “go” plan on third down. Once you get within a yard of 1st down on that 3rd down play, everyone runs up to the line, ready to sneak quickly and catch your opponent by surprise. That would also keep the defensive personnel on the field, meaning the Eagles could potentially use a LB in the middle instead of the two big men on the line.

Of course, there are other ways to throw the defense off balance when closing in on the front line. I enjoyed what the Ravens did on this front. They quickly broke the huddle and rushed to the front. So the defense scrambled to get into position, only to find that the tight end (Mark Andrews) was under center.

We know the Packers are using the move of moving Tucker Craft under center and then taking a quick snap as a way to do surprise sneaks, but the above approach is another way they can add to their approach. is.

This leads to the final sneak variation of the day, the TE pop pass. This may be difficult to implement against the Eagles, but the Eagles have yet to see an example like this on fourth down and the Packers certainly haven’t done it either, so now’s the time to unleash it. It might be time.

There have been various versions of this over the years, but the most recent example occurred at the end of the Duke-Mayo Bowl, when the Minnesota Golden Gophers sealed the victory with this play, forcing their coach to shower him with mayonnaise. I showered it with It’s very simple. Line up in a line, close to the line, then raise your body and throw to the TE who releases vertically.

In the clip above, the Virginia Tech Hokies have a completely packed line with no one deep. This is where things get a little tricky. That’s because the Eagles typically keep single-high safeties and play very deep as the last line of defense. Even if you’ve fooled yourself up front, that safety is lurking and ready to drive if someone leaks.

That doesn’t mean they always do that. I’ve seen a few times this year where the defense closes the line and no one goes back deep.

Despite this appearance, getting a clean release from receivers on the edge can prove difficult, as they are very physical up front. But there are three ways the Packers could potentially do this. I will also say that there are ways to make this work against single-high safeties by releasing and angled the two receivers.

The first method is the standard one. Love is a QB who fakes sneaks and throws pop passes. This is the least complicated because the starting QB is under center. If you have tight spacing in coverage, you have the best players to throw the ball to.

The next idea takes that idea, but works in a slightly trickier way while staying within the bounds of what the Packers have shown this season. Get Tucker Craft under center and then make a quick pop pass.

The downside is that the QB doesn’t handle the ball and it takes the healthiest receivers off the line. However, this reflects an established trend for the Packers this season, and means that once Craft starts moving and approaches the center position, we can expect the Eagles to try to pack inside the line. .

Finally, stay within the same formation, but step out of the frame a bit. We’re running Malik Willis and doing this with 2QB looks.

What’s interesting about this is the options you get from it. There are a variety of options here depending on the Eagles’ adjustments and how the Packers’ practice week went.

If the middle of the line is soft, do a quick snap and let Love sneak it Snap and have Love hit the TE pop pass Pitch to Willis on the right and hit Jacobs in the flat Willis aiming downfield for the TE Pitch to Snap between Love’s legs and rush the line Willis throws a jump pass to the TE (this feels particularly unlikely, but it’s good to have options)

Are these realistic? Not really, but it sure is fun to dream.

Albums I listened to: Wisp – Pandora; Phoebe Bridgers – Copycat. Japandroids – Fate and Alcohol