The issue of Iran’s response to Israel’s October 26 counterattack may have faded somewhat from the headlines these days. However, Israeli defense officials believe that despite the passage of time, Iranian leadership remains in a dilemma over whether and how to respond. Although Israel’s actions did not create a harsh image within Iran, they dealt a precise and significant blow to Iran’s strategic infrastructure.
According to previous reports, Israel is targeting Iran’s air defense systems (primarily the Russian-made S-300) and surface-to-surface missile manufacturing capabilities. According to Israeli assessments, the Israeli attack damaged solid explosives used in Iranian surface-to-surface missiles and reduced Iran’s missile production capacity to about 10% of pre-attack levels.
As a result, Iran is expected to adopt a more conservative policy regarding long-range missile launches until it regains missile production capabilities. Estimates suggest that Iran still has hundreds of long-range missiles it can fire toward Israel, but they are unlikely to do so all at once, as the rate of fire also depends on the number of launchers at its disposal. .
Additionally, Iranian decision-making factors must take into account the fact that Israel’s attacks on Iran’s advanced air defense systems have nearly exposed the country to the possibility of a new Israeli attack. Presumably, the Iranian regime understands that Israel still has a wide range of target banks within Iran, including oil reserves and, of course, nuclear facilities.
According to Israel’s assessment, Iran could technically reach nuclear breakthrough capability within weeks, but it has not yet made a final decision and is proceeding cautiously. As is known, the Iranian government measures its deterrence against Israel primarily in English, and not only in Hebrew. If Trump lives up to the Israeli government’s expectations, his term in office will be spent confronting Iran’s nuclear threat, either through military action or through credible military threats from Israel and the United States to pressure the Tehran regime to change course. It could be an opportunity.
