Nvidia stock has done this following its past four quarterly results. Here’s what can happen after November 20th

Nvidia (NVDA -1.29%) Semiconductor giant announces fiscal 2025 third-quarter financial results (three months ending October 27) on November 20 as investors and analysts expect chip makers to continue with artificial intelligence The incredible rise in stock prices will then be put to the test (AI) surge.

After all, as of this writing, NVIDIA stock is up an impressive 196% through 2024, making its valuation extremely expensive. In this article, we’ll take a look at how Nvidia stock has fared after the past four quarterly earnings releases, before taking a look at what’s in store for investors during the next set of earnings releases. .

Investors have had mixed reactions to Nvidia’s financial results over the past four quarters

The following chart summarizes the market’s immediate reaction to Nvidia’s last four quarterly reports.

Source: Nvidia’s quarterly earnings release and Yahoo! Financial’s historical price data.

When Nvidia announced its fiscal 2024 third-quarter results a year ago, its stock price fell on concerns about the company’s China operations due to the U.S. government’s export restrictions to China. At the time, the market ignored the company’s better-than-expected results and impressive guidance.

However, the next two quarterly reports provided a big boost to NVIDIA stock as the company continued its healthy series of sales and earnings growth thanks to solid demand for its AI graphics processing units (GPUs) . However, when NVIDIA released its last quarterly results in August of this year, investors likely questioned the relatively slow growth pace the company reported.

It’s worth noting that Nvidia’s revenue growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 slowed compared to the growth it achieved in the previous three quarters. Of course, the company had more than doubled its revenue on a year-over-year basis and had strong earnings growth, but by then Wall Street was used to big sales and bottom-line growth.

On top of that, Nvidia expects third-quarter revenue of $32.5 billion, which would be an increase of almost 80% year-over-year. That means, according to the chipmaker’s guidance, sales will not double from the same period last year when the company reports its results on Nov. 20. But the big picture is considering that NVIDIA stock has tripled in the past year. Instant price changes after quarterly closing.

That’s not surprising. Recent market trends show that the company remains a dominant player in the AI ​​chip market with no signs of slowing down. So investors would do well to focus on the bigger picture when NVIDIA releases its quarterly report.

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Considering Nvidia now has a much higher revenue base, it’s no surprise that Nvidia’s growth has slowed relatively compared to last quarter. Still, an 80% quarterly revenue increase is no mean feat, especially given that rivals like AMD have had a hard time making a noticeable impact on the AI ​​chip market and are struggling to take share from Nvidia. is no great feat.

For example, AMD’s revenue for Q3 2024 was $6.8 billion, up 18% year over year. The company’s data center business posted revenue of $3.5 billion, an increase of 122% year over year. This pales in comparison to the 154% year-over-year increase in Nvidia’s data center revenue to a whopping $26.3 billion in the fiscal second quarter.

In other words, Nvidia is growing faster than AMD despite having a larger revenue base. The company is the largest supplier of AI chips, with a market share of 95%. More importantly, that dominance is likely to continue, as demand for Nvidia’s new generation of Blackwell AI processors is expected to outstrip supply in 2025. This is not surprising as these chips are expected to maintain a technological edge over AMD’s offerings.

Analysts are optimistic about sales of Nvidia’s Blackwell processors, with a report from Morgan Stanley (via Tom’s Hardware) suggesting the company could sell $200 billion worth of these chips next year. Masu. If this actually happens, Nvidia’s earnings next year could significantly exceed expectations.

NVDA earnings forecast data for this year by YCharts

According to the chart above, NVIDIA’s revenue is expected to more than double in fiscal 2025 from last year’s $60.9 billion. Analysts expect sales to rise another 43% next year, but strong demand for Blackwell could push it well above that level.

So if NVIDIA shows better-than-expected prospects this quarter thanks to the successful launch of its Blackwell processors, it could set the stage for further gains for this AI stock even after the impressive gains it recorded this year.