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Week 10 offers some exciting primetime games, including a fun matchup between the Detroit Lions and Texans on “Sunday Night Football.”
While I don’t have an overwhelming stance on the spread or totals for this game, I have identified two players’ prop angles that I like in this matchup.
Odds can change significantly by game time, so feel free to contact X at @Wayne_Bets to see if the numbers are still playable.
Jahmil Gibbs’ longest rush over 15.5 yards (-120 Bet365)
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans has had a great defensive season, with Houston ranking second in defensive DVOA.
Still, if there is a weakness, it is that they allow explosive runs.
According to Fantasy Points data, the Texans have the third-highest explosive run rate and the most yards after contact in the NFL at 2.77 yards per attempt.
The Texans also rank 21st in open field yards allowed, which FTN defines as yards a running back can gain 10 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
That’s music to the ears of a home run-hitting running back like Gibbs. Gibbs leads all eligible running backs with a rushing rate of 9.7 percent.
He also ranks fifth in breakaway run percentage, according to Pro Football Focus.
He is blessed with elite talent and benefits from running behind the league’s best offensive line in adjusted line yards.
Gibbs has hit that mark in 18 of 26 games (69%) in his career and six of eight games (75%) this season.
Meanwhile, the Texans have allowed their running backs to clear that mark in six of their past seven games.
This is the perfect storm for Gibbs to end his long rush at some point.
CJ Stroud Over 12.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
The Texans will likely miss another game with Nico Collins, but the absence of Stefon Diggs has made Stroud’s life even more difficult.
Last week, Stroud completed just 11 of 30 passes against the Jets.
It didn’t help that he was constantly under pressure either. According to PFF, he was pressured on 55.6% of his dropbacks.
The Lions’ pass rush hasn’t been as strong since Aidan Hutchinson’s season-ending injury, but we know defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn isn’t afraid to speed up the onslaught.
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Detroit ranks sixth in blitz rate this year. Stroud has received the third-highest pressures of any quarterback this year.
Stroud isn’t necessarily known as a two-way quarterback, but he has recorded 17 or more rushing yards in four of the past six games.
This matchup also favors his running. The Lions lead the league in man coverage (43.7 percent), which correlates strongly with quarterback rushing yards.
They have allowed 29 or more rushing yards to quarterbacks in five of the past seven games.
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He gained 84.5 units across two sports for an ROI of 6.27%.
