Welcome to an offseason installment of NFL Under Review, my column for sounding off on misguided narratives, inexplicable decisions, and other topics around the NFL with an eye on what’s to come. These are my takes on the big moves that have defined the offseason so far.
The Vikings are wise to pass on Aaron Rodgers.
I think that’s what’s happening here? On Wednesday, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported that the Vikings are moving forward with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback and not pursuing Aaron Rodgers “at this time.” It seems pretty clear that the Vikings at the very least discussed Rodgers as a possibility. And there’s nothing wrong with that. Minnesota went 14-3 last season and has spent big in free agency this offseason. It surely believes that its roster is ready to compete for a Super Bowl right now. McCarthy has never taken an NFL snap and is coming off of a knee injury that sidelined him for his entire rookie season. If you’re the Vikings, it’s OK to ask the question: Does Rodgers give us a better chance than McCarthy to win in 2025?
Ultimately, the Vikings decided not to go that route, and I think they’re making the right move. Let’s start with what any team is getting in Rodgers. Last season, he finished 25th in dropback success rate and 24th in expected points added per pass play. In other words, statistically, he was firmly in the “below average” group of starting quarterbacks. If you’re the Vikings, you sign Rodgers only if you think he’s capable of playing significantly better than that on your team. He’d probably have a better offensive line in Minnesota than he had with the Jets. Justin Jefferson is better than any receiver the Jets had, although it’s not like Rodgers was without talent (Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams) last season. And Rodgers would have Kevin O’Connell as his play caller instead of Nathaniel Hackett/Todd Downing. That’s probably the most intriguing aspect of this—O’Connell has shown he can put quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold in positions to succeed and get the best out of them, so maybe he could make it work with Rodgers. However …
THIS IS AARON RODGERS WE’RE TALKING ABOUT! Do you really think he would have gone to Minnesota and been like, “Hey, Kev, this playbook looks great. No notes. When’s our first practice? Can’t wait!” Of course not. He probably would have been begging for Hackett and Allen Lazard to join him within three days of being there. Typically, people don’t get more open to new ideas as they get older. Trust me—I am a reliable source on this topic! With Rodgers, the Vikings would have very much been betting on an exception to that rule. He turns 42 years old in December. In the Super Bowl era, we have seen two—two!—quarterbacks at that age start at least 10 games in a season: Tom Brady and Warren Moon. Maybe Rodgers still has a magical season in him, but it appears the Vikings are smartly letting someone else find out whether that’s true.
So what are reasonable expectations for McCarthy this season? Darnold exceeded expectations in his lone season in Minnesota, but he was not one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He finished 18th in EPA per pass play and 16th in dropback success rate. He was solid and competent but not spectacular. I know McCarthy’s not technically a rookie, but for our purposes, we’ll treat him like one. I looked at all of the rookie quarterbacks who started at least 10 games over the past 10 seasons. If we take the average rookie performance from that sample and drop it into last season, we get a quarterback who would have ranked 24th in EPA per pass play and 22nd in dropback success rate. In other words, a quarterback who performed statistically similar to Rodgers last season. So what do the Vikings need from McCarthy? They need him to perform slightly better than an average rookie, and if he does, they can probably be a playoff team. Is that guaranteed? Of course not. But given that the Vikings took McCarthy with the 10th pick in the 2024 draft, it’s reasonable to assume they have a plan for him and believe in his talent. Seeing that vision through makes more sense than gambling on Rodgers.
The Bengals have figured out the hard part.
With a few exceptions, the truth in the modern NFL is that if you build an efficient offense, you have a chance to win—and win big—over the course of several seasons. Of course it isn’t the only thing that matters, but it’s a great place to start. And that’s why Bengals fans should be ecstatic this week. This offseason could have gotten out of hand in a hurry for this organization. They could have lost Tee Higgins in free agency, and Ja’Marr Chase could have staged a hold-in (where he shows up for training camp but doesn’t practice) while awaiting a new contract. It could have been awkward and risky, especially since Joe Burrow stumped for both of his top pass catchers to return.
Instead, the Bengals signed both receivers to long-term contracts, the vibes are immaculate, and the Bengals are going to have a chance to get back to the Super Bowl.
The NFL is about making choices. Teams can’t have everything they want all the time. The transparency associated with those choices can be cutthroat and brutal. Organizations let players know exactly what they think of them by how much they’re willing to pay. For the Bengals, paying Chase seemed like an obvious move. But the Higgins situation was tricky. Do you really want to tie up big money into two wide receivers when the rest of the roster has holes? Especially when you consider that Higgins has missed 10 games in the past two seasons? The Bengals—after some not-so-gentle nudging from their QB1—decided that they wanted to pay Higgins. And that choice makes sense to me.
If we isolate the Bengals’ offensive performance last season to just the snaps when they had Burrow, Chase, and Higgins on the field together, it would have ranked first (!) in the NFL in EPA per snap and success rate. I understand that’s not a completely fair exercise because other teams had important players suffer injuries too, but you get the point. This has the clear potential to be an elite, high-ceiling offense when those three guys are healthy. And this isn’t a small sample. This version of the Bengals offense has worked for years. Last season, they finished fifth in offensive DVOA. Burrow was injured in 2023, but in 2022, they finished fourth. They’ve figured out the hard part.
So now what? Unfortunately for Cincinnati, playoff seeds are not determined by offensive DVOA rankings. Last season, the Bengals ranked 27th in defensive DVOA. If the defense was just slightly below average, Cincinnati would have been a playoff team. But it wasn’t. The defense was terrible. It’s replaced defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo with Al Golden, but the truth is that Cincinnati needs better players. After spending big on Chase and Higgins, the Bengals are now positioned to throw draft resources at the defense (and at the offensive line). If they don’t hit with their picks, the overall plan’s not going to work, and they’ll be right back where they started. But by securing both Chase and Higgins, they at least have a chance to be an elite (and efficient) offense. And that’s all you can really ask for.
I can’t get on board with the Seahawks’ plan.
Let me be clear: I understand their plan. At quarterback, they couldn’t come to a contract agreement with Geno Smith, who was heading into the final year of his deal, so they moved him for a third-round pick and pivoted to Sam Darnold. Darnold is much younger than Smith, so if he plays well, Seattle is getting more long-term upside. And if he doesn’t, Seattle can move on quickly. The Seahawks essentially made a one-year commitment to Darnold so they could move on and try again with a new quarterback in 2026. At wide receiver, DK Metcalf didn’t want to be there, so they got a second-round pick for him and pivoted to Cooper Kupp. This is not a “WHAT ARE THEY DOING?!” situation. There is logic to the Seahawks’ moves. I am just skeptical that their plan will work out and that, by the end of the 2025 season, they’ll be any closer to being a real contender.
Let’s start with Darnold. The Seahawks are making a bet that last year was the start of something and that Darnold can be as good (or better?) in Seattle as he was in Minnesota. It’s possible that Darnold is an ascending player. As I mentioned earlier, he was 16th in dropback success rate and 18th in EPA per pass play last season. Darnold turns 28 in June. Maybe he really did start to figure things out, his arrow’s pointing up, and he wasn’t close to his ceiling last season. Maybe. But it’s also possible that last season was an outlier and that Darnold will never play that well again. Previously, he had statistically been one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Among 45 starters with at least 1,000 dropbacks from 2018 to 2023, Darnold ranked 43rd in EPA per pass play—ahead of only Davis Mills and Zach Wilson. The floor here is low. If the Seahawks’ Darnold experiment fails, it could fail pretty spectacularly.
What’s clear here is that Seattle has more faith in the pieces around Darnold than I do. I see Klint Kubiak as an unproven offensive coordinator. Mike Macdonald seems to see someone who can develop Darnold and position him for success. I see Kupp as a declining wide receiver who missed 10 games in the past two seasons (and whom Sean McVay decided he could live without). In the last three years, the NFL has had just four wide receivers age 32 or older have at least 500 yards in a season. But the Seahawks don’t seem as concerned about that; they seem to see Kupp as someone who can be a legit WR2 to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I see an offensive line that has been an issue for over a decade now. They seem to see one with unrealized potential—or at least one that can be good enough to be schemed around.
The bottom line is that general manager John Schneider has made a series of bets. There’s a scenario where nine months from now, he’s getting praised for being bold and having a vision. But to me, this feels like too many bets on exceptions. And I think the most likely outcome is that the Seahawks offense takes a step back in 2025 and they have to go back to the drawing board next offseason.
This is sad, sad stuff from the Giants.
Let’s go on a little imaginary ride for a second. Imagine you are the general manager of the New York Giants. Your team has gone 9-25 over the past two seasons. A couple years ago, you decided to pay big money for quarterback Daniel Jones after his one good season. That move turned out to be a (predictable) disaster. The next offseason, you let Hard Knocks in to document your negotiations with Saquon Barkley. The owner told you he would have trouble sleeping if Barkley landed with the rival Philadelphia Eagles. Not only did Barkley land with your rival, but he turned in one of the greatest running back seasons in NFL history en route to a Super Bowl championship.
The truth is, you probably didn’t think there was any way you were going to survive this. Given how bad last year was, it just felt like a natural breaking point. But by some miracle, the owner decided to give you one more chance. Think of how exhilarating that would be! Surely you’d be filled with a sense of urgency. You’d spend day and night coming up with a plan. Contingencies for every scenario. Real outside-the-box thinking. Anything to give the Giants an edge. You’d find some way to take big swings and restore some respectability to this once-proud franchise, right?
RIGHT?!
The point of that little exercise was to outline just how pathetic things are right now for this franchise. There is currently an article on The Athletic with a headline that reads: Russell Wilson? Jameis Winston? Who will Giants turn to if they miss out on Aaron Rodgers? I should mention that the article also mentions Joe Flacco as an option. This, somehow, was the Giants’ plan after they couldn’t pull off a trade for Matthew Stafford. With their backs against the wall and jobs on the line, these are the quarterbacks they are considering. Bleak stuff. It’s not supposed to feel this hopeless in mid-March.
But the Giants’ problems don’t stop at quarterback. Last offseason, the Giants let safety Xavier McKinney—a player they had drafted and developed—walk in free agency. This offseason, they decided to spend nearly the same amount of money on free agent safety Jevon Holland. The Holland contract is perfectly reasonable, but is there an actual sound process here? The same question can be asked about the decision to re-sign receiver Darius Slayton. It seemed like the Giants had been trying to replace Slayton for years. Yet this offseason? They decided to keep him on a three-year, $36 million deal. Again: WHAT IS THE PLAN HERE??
It’s worth noting that over the last 10 years, the only teams that have produced fewer wins than the Giants (57) are the Jets (56) and the Jaguars (55). This team isn’t in the midst of a short-term dip. This is a decade of futility. Maybe the Giants will draft a quarterback, and that player will turn out to be great, and their franchise will be back on track. But the most likely scenario is that they’re about to waste away in irrelevancy for yet another year. So much for second (or third or fourth) chances.
Sheil Kapadia
Sheil Kapadia writes about the NFL and hosts two podcasts: ‘The Ringer NFL Show’ and ‘The Ringer’s Philly Special.’ Prior to joining The Ringer in 2022, you could find his work at The Athletic, ESPN, and Philadelphia Magazine.
