The second release of the YouGov model, which estimates the 2024 U.S. Senate and House elections by district, shows that Republicans will maintain a slight majority in the Senate and Democrats will have a narrow lead in the House. It was shown that Each outcome would reverse the current Congress.
In YouGov’s Senate model, Republicans hold an advantage in 13 seats on the ballot and hold 38 seats on the non-ballot, giving them 51 seats. Democrats or independents who caucus with Democrats have an advantage in 20 seats on the ballot and hold 28 seats not on the ballot, for a total of 48 seats. One seat in Ohio is graded as a toss-up.
Outside of the toss-up races, seven seats remain close, with four leaning Democratic and three leaning Republican.
This is little changed from the Sept. 23 announcement, which showed Republicans expected to win 51 seats and Democrats 47.
YouGov simulated each of the 435 House of Commons elections 3,000 times. In 62% of these simulations, Democrats won a majority of seats (at least 218 seats). In the median simulation, Democrats won 220 seats.
The Senate and House models are based on nearly 100,000 interviews from the YouGov U.S. Committee conducted through Oct. 15 as part of the SAY24 project, a collaboration between Stanford University, Arizona State University and Yale University. .
Take a closer look at each Senate race in the table below.
