CNN
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There is no political playbook on how to respond if another assassination attempt against a major party presidential candidate occurs just weeks after the election.
But the race, seen as a second attempt to destroy Republican candidate Donald Trump, is bucking precedent and marking the latest development in a political season that has highlighted the country’s deep divisions, with rival campaigns now finding themselves in the thick of it.
For the second time in less than two months, the United States narrowly avoided the tragedy of a major political assassination during an election cycle — and the poisonous power such an outrage can have in a country plagued by bitter partisan divisions.
Such incidents speak to the undercurrent of violence that perpetually hangs over American politics, exacerbated by the ready availability of firearms. With both candidates now addressing crowds outdoors from behind bulletproof screens, there are now new fears that the tumultuous period leading up to Election Day could lead the country down an even darker path.
After decades without an assassination attempt on a senior executive branch official, this year has brought to light once again the frightening reality that anyone who puts themselves forward for the highest office could be putting their own life at risk.
Rapid response from Trump’s friends and foes
Vice President Kamala Harris, her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, and President Joe Biden were quick to express relief that the former president was safe, saying a man suspected of trying to shoot him on Trump’s Florida golf course was found before Trump opened fire. Harris said she had been briefed on the incident and posted on social media, “We are glad he is safe. Violence has no place in America.”
It may be rude to consider the political fallout in the aftermath of an assassination attempt, but everything in America can become politicized within minutes, especially with just 50 days until a close election.
Seconds after surviving the first, rather close, assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13, Trump rose to his feet and shouted “Fight, fight, fight,” and on Sunday afternoon he quickly issued a fundraising email that read, “I’m safe and well!”
“Nothing will stop me. I will never surrender!” Trump wrote in the email, which included a link to a site where his supporters could donate.
And Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, one of the former president’s biggest allies, issued a statement reiterating her belief that God’s providence had spared Trump’s death, a theme that was repeated at the Republican National Convention. The House Republican Conference chair suggested the country had an obligation to elect Trump in light of what had happened. “Thankfully, God continues to watch over President Trump, and as Americans, we must unite behind him in November to defend our republic and restore peace to the world,” she said.
House Speaker Mike Johnson also suggested Trump had benefited from divine intervention after visiting the former president’s Mar-a-Lago resort on Sunday, reinforcing the narrative that Trump is invincible. “No leader in the history of America has been so strong and so tenacious, withstood so many attacks. No one can stop him,” he said.
Trump’s sense of divine protection fueled feelings among his supporters that he was destined to win the Milwaukee convention, but that belief faded after Biden shelved his reelection bid and Harris entered the race, changing the course of the race.
The man arrested in connection with the assassination attempt was spotted by Secret Service agents a few holes away from the former president at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida.
“Why was an assassin once again allowed to get so close to President Trump?” Stefanik wrote, “While we still do not have an explanation for the horrific assassination attempt in Pennsylvania, I hope there will be a clear explanation for what happened today in Florida.” The New York Republican’s questioning of the Secret Service, given what happened in Butler, is likely to foreshadow a debate in the coming days about the level of security for the former president.
Trump has already suggested, without evidence, that the Biden administration and Harris were complicit in the Pennsylvania assassination attempt because he claims they used the Justice Department as a tool in his attacks against Trump, but all of Trump’s criminal matters have proceeded through the normal court process and there is no evidence that the White House is involved in any way.
The second assassination attempt came against the backdrop of a tumultuous election campaign that defied convention and expectations. It was the first time since 1968 that a sitting president had called off his reelection campaign within months of the election, reluctantly giving way to his vice president, who has the chance to become the first black, female and South Asian commander in chief. The Republican nominee is a convicted felon who faces multiple criminal charges in an unprecedented attempt to stay in power after losing the last election. If he returns to the White House, Trump would become the second president to win consecutive terms despite losing reelection.
What the former president does next will be closely watched. After the first assassination attempt, he called for the nation to come together, but his pledge of unity lasted only the first third of his speech at the Republican National Convention, before degenerating into the signature divisiveness on which he built his political career.
Trump has also ignored repeated advice from Republican officials and his campaign to stick to sharp, concise rebuttals to Harris. They want him to focus on Harris’ role in Biden’s economic policy, with many voters still struggling with high prices despite falling inflation. So even if aides advise him to return to a national unity theme, there’s no guarantee he’ll listen or take it into account for political gain.
The new attempt on Trump’s life could have some personal repercussions for the former president. Days after a bullet grazed his ear in Pennsylvania, escaping death or serious injury, Trump appeared remorseful. But since then, he has reverted to his former, boisterous self, and if anything, his rhetoric has become more extreme. He recently warned his political opponents that he would use the law to jail them if he believes the election was rigged, and he has doubled down on his baseless claims that the last election was stolen.
In the immediate aftermath of Sunday’s attack, most Trump opponents were focused on maintaining calm in a volatile situation. In a democracy, there is no justification for using violence to silence politicians. But at the same time, the coming days will likely provoke debate about the extent to which the former president, as a uniquely demagogue, stoked divisions in the country.
For example, political tensions were heightened last weekend when the former president and his running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, both Republicans, highlighted unfounded allegations that Haitian refugees in Springfield, Ohio, were stealing and eating their pets. Trump’s opponents have warned that his continued racist tirades are putting lives at risk.
In a contentious interview on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday, Vance maintained that the allegations about Haitian immigrants in the U.S. legally were backed up by complaints from some of his constituents. And rather than backing away from the story despite multiple local officials saying the rumors were untrue, Vance blasted the suggestion that recent bomb threats against the city had anything to do with him and Trump escalating the allegations. “This city has suffered terribly on this issue under Kamala Harris’ policies,” he told Dana Bash.
But Republican Gov. Mike DeWine said “No, absolutely not” when asked by ABC on Sunday if he had seen any evidence of the pet-eating rumors. The governor added that the Haitian migrants that President Trump threatened to deport to Venezuela on Friday were in the US legally.
Normally, a perceived assassination attempt on a presidential candidate would be expected to spark a surge in sympathy that translates into a political boost. But Trump’s latest close call came in the middle of a close race with Harris. Both candidates are vying for potentially hundreds of thousands of mobile voters in battleground states, but it’s unclear how much room there is to change perceptions of Trump, who has polarized since launching his first national campaign in 2015.
The former president will almost certainly use recent events to bolster his unfounded claims that he is the victim of persecution designed to keep him out of power, but it is too early to say whether the second assassination attempt will have a greater political impact than the first.
Ultimately, it will be up to voters to navigate this unpredictable and dangerous election season.