CNN
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The last Iowa poll conducted by the Des Moines Register and Mediacom before Election Day found Vice President Kamala Harris with 47% of likely voters, to former President Donald Trump’s 44%. The difference is within the poll’s 3.4 percentage points of sampling error and suggests there is no clear leader in a state widely rated as solid in the Republican column this election cycle.
This poll suggests a shift toward Harris compared to the previous Iowa poll in September, which showed Trump with a narrow lead. The poll found that 47% of likely voters supported Trump, while 43% supported Harris.
So far, there are few other high-quality polls in Iowa that can be compared to these findings. Iowa has had mixed results in the past four presidential elections, with Barack Obama winning both 2008 and 2012, but Trump also winning in 2016 and 2020.
A new poll shows women in the state support Harris over Trump, 56% to 36%, while men favor Trump by a narrower margin, 52% to 38%. And independents in the state turned to Harris, 46% to 39%. An Iowa poll released earlier this year showed they supported Trump.
The poll also found that older voters firmly support Harris’ campaign, with 55% of likely voters over 65 supporting Harris, compared to 36% for Trump. The survey also suggests that likely under-age voters are split almost evenly, with 46% for Harris and 44% for Trump.
More than 9 in 10 Iowa voters (91%) say the polls have made their minds up, 7% say they can be persuaded, and 2% say they haven’t chosen a candidate yet.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll was conducted by Selzer & Company among 808 Iowa voters between October 28 and 31. The interview was conducted by telephone. The results for likely voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
