In the final stages of this year’s election, Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris is “growing strong” on gambling platform Polymarket, according to an update on Friday.
As of Friday afternoon, Harris still held a 59.5% to 40.6% lead over Republican candidate former President Donald Trump in the polls. However, this gap has narrowed over the past week. On October 25, it was announced that the vice president’s chance of winning next week was 36.1 percent, and Mr. Trump’s chance of victory was 63.8 percent.
Polymarket describes itself as the world’s largest prediction market where investors can bet on the outcome of various events using cryptocurrencies. The platform is based on what it describes as “collective intelligence” rather than external factors such as polling data.
On Friday, Harris’ biggest gain in recent days was in Michigan, which flipped in her favor for the first time since Oct. 10. At the time of publication, Harris had a 58% chance of securing Michigan and its 16 electors, and had a 58% chance of winning the vote while President Trump was winning. The probability of being in a critical swing state was 42%.
The vice president also holds a lead in Wisconsin, another key battleground state that could determine the outcome of the presidential election. As of Friday, Harris had a 53% chance of winning, while Trump had a 48% chance of winning.
However, Trump maintains a lead in the remaining battleground states. In Pennsylvania, Trump has a 56% chance of winning and Harris has a 44% chance of winning in the polls. The former president also has a better chance of winning in Arizona (75% to 26%), North Carolina (68% to 32%), Georgia (73% to 29%) and Nevada (64% to 37%).
Newsweek reached out to Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump’s campaign for comment via email on Friday.
National polls show the race for the White House is even closer. According to 538, Ms. Harris leads Mr. Trump by 1.3 percentage points nationally. Statewide polls also show Harris narrowly gaining in Wisconsin (0.9 points) and Michigan (1.1 points).
Trump has a slight average lead in Arizona (2.1 points), Georgia (1.6 points) and North Carolina (1.3 points), according to 538 tracking polls. As of Friday, statewide polls showed Pennsylvania and Nevada with an even number of candidates.
An election model conducted by 538 predicts that although Harris is not far behind, Trump has a slightly higher chance of securing the 270 electoral votes needed for a second term. As of Friday, Trump had a 52% chance of winning, while Harris had a 48% chance.
According to pollster Nate Silver’s latest election forecast, Trump has a 53.8% chance of winning next week and Harris has a 45.8% chance of winning. Silver also predicts that Trump will lead in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Nevada, while Harris will have a slight lead in Michigan and Wisconsin.