University enrollments are falling at a “worrying” rate, new data shows.
Data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center shows enrollment among 18-year-old freshmen this fall semester declined by 5%. This data reflects reported enrollment for 1.4 million new 18-year-old students as of October 31, 2024.
The decline was most pronounced at public and private nonprofit four-year colleges, where enrollment declined by more than 6 percent. According to Inside Higher Ed, the average decline across 46 states was nearly 7%.
At prestigious universities with low acceptance rates, the largest drop in enrollment was among new students of color. For example, the number of black freshmen enrolled in public and private nonprofit four-year schools declined by 16.9 percent.
Experts say the main reason for the decline is more complex.
Julie J. Park, an education professor at the University of Maryland, cited a “national debate that has been going on for some time” about a “potential ‘enrollment cliff.'”
The concept of the enrollment cliff arose in higher education following years of decline in the U.S. birth rate in the wake of the Great Recession. Earlier this year, the CDC released data showing annual births in the United States hit a historic low, declining 2% from 2022 to 2023 and 3% in 2023.
According to August 2024 data, “the number of births has fallen by 17% since its most recent high in 2007, and the general fertility rate has fallen by 21%.”
Park said that while the enrollment cliff has not yet occurred, there are other factors contributing to declining enrollment rates, especially when it comes to the cost of higher education.
“There could be any number of problems. There are problems related to fafsa,” Park explained.
The U.S. Department of Education, which administers federal student aid, made changes last year to simplify the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (Fafsa), but the effort backfired. Technical issues and glitches have caused significant delays in the rollout of applications, leaving many people with no idea what type of financial aid package they will receive or how much it will cost them to attend college. There wasn’t.
And Fafsa is not the only problem.
Park also cited the nation’s highest court ruling against Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan, citing last year’s Supreme Court ruling as a potential roadblock.
Under this loan forgiveness plan, up to $20,000 of individual federal student debt could be forgiven for borrowers who were also Pell Grant recipients. Other borrowers could have had up to $10,000 in debt forgiven. More recently, Republicans have been pushing another of Biden’s debt relief plans, the “Precious Education Savings” repayment plan. The plan would have cut undergraduate loan payments in half and ensured that borrowers would not have to rack up outstanding balances with unpaid interest.
Millions of people took part in the scheme, which ended up being challenged in court. The move created yet another hurdle for debt-laden graduates and ambitious college students hoping to pay for a more affordable education.
Park pointed out that test takers also have to contend with “conflicting pressures in the labor market.”
“As work becomes more attractive for some students and individuals, it can be difficult to give up not working to support a family, and that may also be playing a role,” she said. Said.
According to a 2024 report from Gallup and the Lumina Foundation, the cost of college is the number one barrier to enrolling in higher education for adults who are not enrolled in such programs. The report also found that cost and work requirements are preventing more than three-quarters of the more than 3,000 unregistered adults surveyed from pursuing further education.
Most notably, nearly all non-degree adults surveyed said they felt at least one type of credential was “very” or “extremely” valuable.
Jenny Rickard, CEO of Common App, one of the most widely used websites by students to apply to university each year, echoed this sentiment.
“While this new data showing enrollment of new 18-year-olds is down 5% year-on-year is alarming, it is not due to a decline in student interest in higher education.” Rickard said. Registration and Communications Officer, Bryn Mawr College, Pennsylvania;
Rickard noted that the “continued increase in the number of applicants” is “confirmation that students remain motivated to pursue a four-year degree.” She also pointed to “an uncertain admissions year” and the aforementioned fafsa and other affordability concerns as reasons for declining enrollment.
Tuition at public four-year colleges in the state averages $11,610, an increase of $300 from last year, the College Board found. Out-of-state tuition for the same school averages $30,780, an increase of $940 in just one year.
Ricardo pointed to a 7% increase in students applying to four-year colleges in Common App’s end-of-season report for the 2023-24 application cycle. This includes a 12% increase in applicants from low- and moderate-income households.
“It is critical that we, as a higher education community, redouble our efforts to support our students,” she said. “This means not only making sure they feel welcome on campus, but also addressing the affordability and accessibility barriers that stand in their way.”
