washington
CNN
—
House Speaker Mike Johnson said the government shutdown could hurt the party on Election Day, even as Republican presidential candidates want to fight Democrats over their crackdown on non-referendum voting. He had to convince former President Donald Trump of one thing.
According to two people close to Johnson, during a recent sit-in at Mar-a-Lago, Johnson warned that Trump’s poll numbers could cost him the Republican House majority due to the government shutdown. I showed that I was doing it. Then, to drive home the point, Johnson pulled out photos of Republican incumbents who could be defeated, many of whom Trump liked.
This shows just how hard Mr Johnson had to try to avoid a huge political firestorm on the eve of an election that would decide not only who controls the House of Commons but also his own leadership position. This is proof.
“It was the right thing to do to get out of town as soon as possible. I very much support the speaker’s actions,” said Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, the House Republican spending chief, who said he was He was one of several Republicans who privately appealed to Prime Minister Johnson to ignore President Trump and avoid a government shutdown at all costs just weeks from Election Day.
But behind the scenes, Johnson was working with conservatives on a Trump-approved fundraising strategy. Even though it was clear that the speaker needed to pass the bill with Democrats, Mr. Johnson privately tried to add partisan language on immigration — something centrist Republicans ultimately opposed. That’s according to two Republicans familiar with the discussions. He had been calling lawmakers about the plan hours before the bipartisan vote.
Johnson was saved from the gavel by successfully defusing President Trump’s threat of a government shutdown while protecting dozens of vulnerable Republicans, but only for now. The next three months could open up Johnson’s future as speaker for a second term, or end his short tenure as head of the Republican conference.
And with his future on the line, Mr Johnson will spend every day until November 5 trying to protect and perhaps grow his party’s majority. He and other Republican leaders have raided battlegrounds across the country, from the New York suburbs to California’s central coast, to unseat endangered incumbents and raise money to counter Vice President Kamala Harris’ big-fund-raising machine. are planning to collect. Mr. Johnson will begin the month with a fundraiser in Manhattan on Monday, followed by a national campaign, spending about a third of his time in New York or California, according to his political team. That’s what it means.
The next time House Republicans meet, the election will be over and it will be time for their own internal leadership battles. If Republicans retain control of the House, especially if they expand their majority, Mr. Johnson will have a strong case to keep his job. But regardless of the election, Johnson is staring down a number of political landmines in the immediate aftermath of the election that could make it impossible for him to actually win the presidency in January.
“We’re going to be in the same situation again. Depending on how the election goes, the next one could be even worse,” said one Republican lawmaker, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the speaker’s future freely. . “A lot of things start to pile up.”
Mr Johnson and his leadership team need to keep government functions open and address the debt ceiling deadline of early 2025. Congress also has deadlines for the Farm Bill, a massive five-year funding package for agriculture and nutrition programs, and the National Defense Authorization Act, a landmark defense policy bill, with additional funding for natural disasters. It is likely that additional funding will be required.
Mr. Johnson was little known to many in the conference before his rise to leadership, but he built a strong relationship of trust with rank-and-file members and weathered battle after battle, making him one of the early leaders. He earned respect even from skeptics.
“I think he did a good job of basically not raising his hand and not running anyone over,” Rep. Mark Amodei, a Nevada Republican, told CNN.
But many lawmakers acknowledge that if Republicans lose the House, it will be difficult for Mr. Johnson to win a party-wide fight to remain the party’s leader. Instead, many Republicans have focused on Johnson’s surrogates, including House Minority Leader Steve Scalise and House Majority Leader Tom Emmer, as well as Trump ally Jim Jordan of Ohio. are. Then there’s another wild card candidate: Elise Stefanik, Speaker of the House of Representatives. She is a New York Republican whose name is frequently discussed for a potential Trump Cabinet post, but is likely to remain in the House unless Trump wins.
“Then you look around, and if it’s not him, then who is it? That makes it even more confusing and difficult,” said Rep. Chuck Fleischman, Republican of Tennessee. “If we can maintain and even increase our margins in the House, I think he will be in a very optimal position.”
As lawmakers head home to campaign, many Republicans are privately frustrated that they have little to promote from the Republican majority. Passing legislation that addresses party priorities as far-right members set their sights on ousting House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and then Johnson, who worked with Democrats to pass legislation months later. Instead, the House has weathered one funding crisis after another. Billions of dollars in aid to besieged Ukraine.
After months of investigations and hearings, key committees were unable to make a strong enough case for members to move forward with impeachment of President Joe Biden, but it is clear that Biden was elected president in July. After announcing its withdrawal from the US, that impeachment lost its validity.
“Mike’s speaking engagements over the past year have seemed to be about buying time until the next milestone, whatever that is,” one Republican lawmaker told CNN. “There’s a sigh of relief. We can go home and campaign. We don’t have to defend the shutdown. We can resume campaigning and get through it, but the final They become a little calmer and start thinking that they have to do something after the election.”
Many Republicans have already begun planning ways to avoid a repeat of the dysfunction and drama of the past two years. House Republicans have begun privately debating major changes to the internal rules to make it easier for future Republican leaders to participate. A major goal for many members is to break the rule that only allows one member to ban a speaker.
“We need strong leaders, and unless they commit a crime or become mentally incapacitated, we will not comply with this motion to withdraw as political theater,” said Rep. David Joyce, R-Ohio. We have to put people in place.” .
Republicans also want to prevent a repeat of last year’s dramatic 15 speakership fights on the House floor, which caused significant delays in committee creation and Congress operations. Several members are talking about how to corral the chair by forcing candidates to prove they can get not just a simple majority of their own chambers, but the 218 votes needed to win on the floor in January. We are discussing.
Some are seriously discussing how to get revenge on members of the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus, who have blocked Republican policy on the floor and on the rules committees controlled by the speaker. They argue that members who vote against party priorities should be disqualified from the Ume committee.
But for Mr. Johnson, pushing through changes to Republican rules could jeopardize his ability to win votes in the convention — especially when the majority is as small as those he’s currently running against. –.
