Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) rise to the top has been built on some unusual earnings releases, but investors are looking forward to seeing the semiconductor giant soon report its third-quarter results (Nov. 20). should keep short-term expectations in check.
At least, that’s the view of Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore. Moore isn’t bearish on NVDA, but he does suggest there’s good reason to believe the upside is capped at this point.
“We are back to full supply due to new product constraints, which could limit upside for this quarter and the outlook,” the five-star analyst said. “The current environment is fully supply constrained in Blackwell and partially constrained in H200. We continue to expect a very good quarter going forward, but the bigger upside will be in the second half of the year. I think it will happen.”
In its last earnings call, the company said it expected revenue from Blackwell in the “billions” in the January quarter, and Moore now expects that figure to be around $5 billion to $6 billion. I am doing it. This is above the “implicit number” but slightly below expectations from a few weeks ago, which Moore said is difficult to accurately measure at this time. The analyst also expects demand for Hopper GPUs to increase slightly, and observes that demand for H100 is softer, while interest in H200 appears to be more robust.
Overall, Moore expects the pattern seen in recent quarters to repeat itself. The company has exceeded guidance by about $2 billion in recent quarters and is targeting $2 billion in quarter-over-quarter growth (up from $2.5 billion in the most recent quarter). However, the January consensus is already at $36.5 billion. The company may push prices a little higher this time, but supply constraints will likely limit the upside.
Despite this, Blackwell is currently effectively sold “well deep into” the October quarter, although Moore says he maintains a conservative approach in his forecasts “beyond the outlook period.” I believe that As a result, Moore raised his growth forecast for FY26 revenue of $176.78 billion, non-GAAP gross margin of 73.8%, and non-GAAP EPS of $4.03, compared with the previous forecast of $166.9 billion, 73.7%, and 3.78%. We expect it to increase from $. each.
“While we view this as something of a transitional quarter and therefore not a major catalyst for stocks, we remain overweight given our expectations that the Blackwell cycle will continue to deliver meaningful gains through the two-hour period. / Remain a top pick,” Moore summed up.
In addition to giving the stock an overweight (or buy) rating, Moore also raised his price target from $150 to $160, suggesting the stock could rise 10% in the coming months. (Click here to see Moore’s track record)
Overall, Nvidia has a consensus rating of Strong Buy from 37 analysts, with 3 Holds. The average price target of $157.27 suggests an 8% premium to the current price next year.
Overall, NVIDIA has most Wall Street analysts on its side. Of the 41 recent analyst reviews, 3 recommend Hold and all others say Buy, unsurprisingly reaching a consensus rating of Strong Buy. Based on the average price target of $157.27, the stock would trade at a 6% premium a year from now. (See NVIDIA stock price forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. Content is for informational purposes only. It is very important to perform your own analysis before making any investment.
