Bangalore:
Experts and industry officials say the rapid increase in satellites and space debris will leave low-Earth orbit unsustainable unless companies and nations work together and share the data needed to manage the most accessible space. will no longer be usable.
In late October, the United Nations Panel on Space Traffic Coordination determined that urgent action was needed to create a comprehensive, shared database of objects in orbit and an international framework to track and manage them. I asked for it.
Data from US-based Slingshot Aerospace showed that more than 14,000 satellites surround the Earth, including about 3,500 inactive ones in low Earth orbit. In addition to these, there are approximately 120 million pieces of debris from launches, impacts, and wear, of which only a few thousand are large enough to be tracked.
“We don’t have time to waste coordinating space traffic. With so many objects being launched into space, we must do everything we can to ensure space safety. “This means facilitating information sharing between operators, both public and private, to avoid conflicts,” said Aarti Hola-Maini, co-chair of the panel and head of the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs.
Low Earth orbit must be kept safe to prevent costly disruptions to the technologies behind global communications, navigation and scientific exploration, she said.
However, there is no centralized system available to all spacefaring nations, and there are many obstacles to even persuading them to use such a system. While some countries are willing to share data, others are concerned about compromising security, especially since satellites are dual-purpose and often include defense purposes. Additionally, companies are keen to protect commercial secrets.
Meanwhile, the chaos continues to grow.
In August, a Chinese rocket stage exploded, sending thousands of pieces of debris into low Earth orbit. In June, a decommissioned Russian satellite exploded, scattering thousands of pieces of debris and forcing the International Space Station’s astronauts to evacuate for an hour.
Low Earth orbit is the region with the highest concentration of man-made objects due to its balance between cost and proximity, making it a prime target for the rapidly growing commercial space sector. Slingshot data also shows a 17% increase in the number of close encounters per satellite over the past year.
According to predictions, tens of thousands more satellites are expected to enter orbit in the coming years. Montreal-based Northstar Earth and Space Inc. estimates that the potential economic risk from a collision is expected to increase over five years, based on a model scenario with a 3.13% annual collision probability and $111 million in annual damages. It said it was likely to be worth $556 million.
“We are at a critical point in terms of putting regulation and structure in space to monitor and manage growing congestion. As we prepare to follow suit, we will soon increase our primary orbital support capacity,” said Northstar CEO Stewart Bain.
risky business
Low-Earth orbit, at an altitude of 540 to 570 km (336 to 354 miles), is dense with bands such as that of commercial space company SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet service. As of November 27, Starlink had 6,764 satellites in orbit, according to Jonathan’s Space Report.
Starlink satellites conducted nearly 50,000 collision avoidance maneuvers in the first half of 2024, about twice as many as in the previous six months, according to SpaceX data.
SpaceX did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment.
The European Space Agency, which has fewer spacecraft than SpaceX, said its spacecraft will perform three to four maneuvers per spacecraft in 2021, compared to an average of one in the past.
Although there are fewer satellites in the 800-900 km band, there are 3,114 objects, including operational and non-operational payloads, rocket bodies and debris, which accounts for 20% of the total mass of objects in low Earth orbit. of vehicles, posing a significant crash risk, LeoLabs data shows. showed.
Expiring satellites will remain in orbit until they fall into the Earth’s atmosphere and burn up after a few years, or be flown into a “graveyard orbit” some 36,000 km away, adding to the chaos.
In November 2021, Russia test-fired a missile at a defunct satellite in orbit, creating thousands of pieces of debris and sparking global criticism. Russia invaded Ukraine three months after the test.
Anirudh Sharma, CEO of the Bangalore-based company, said: “The potential for conflict between nations has increased rapidly in recent times.If this extends to space, the space environment could become “It could get complicated. Universal rules for coordination are urgently needed.” Digantara specializes in space situational awareness.
the last front line
Hola Maini, the United Nations’ secretary for the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, said the October committee will bring together experts from the public and private sectors to outline the steps needed to begin coordination work. He said there was. It plans to present its findings at next year’s committee meeting.
Industry experts told Reuters that global cooperation is essential to develop legally enforceable rules similar to those used by the International Civil Aviation Organization for air traffic.
Such efforts include using existing tools such as databases, telescopes, radar, and other sensors to track objects while improving coverage, early detection, and data accuracy.
However, geopolitical tensions and reluctance to share data with countries deemed unfriendly, as well as commercial concerns about protecting sensitive information and competitive advantage, remain major barriers.
As a result, orbiting equipment operators will rely on unofficial or semi-official methods to avoid collisions, such as using data from groups such as the U.S. Space Force and the Space Data Institute. However, this can come with issues such as accountability and inconsistent data standards.
“The biggest challenges are speed and trust because building consensus takes time,” Hora Maini said. “Some countries simply cannot communicate with others, but the United Nations can facilitate this process. Speed is our greatest enemy, but there is no alternative. It must be done.”
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
