Moderna (MRNA) stock tumbled on Monday after the coronavirus vaccine maker cut its 2024 and 2025 revenue outlook and announced expanded cost-cutting plans.
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The company now expects sales of the two products to be between $3 billion and $3.1 billion, lower than its previous guidance of $3 billion to $3.5 billion. Moderna sells the new coronavirus vaccine Spikevax and a vaccine to prevent RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) for the elderly. That shot is called mResvia.
Moderna has also lowered its 2025 forecast and now expects sales to be between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, significantly lower than its previous forecast of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion.
Moderna shares plunged 16.8% to close at 35.15.
Additionally, an independent data and safety monitoring board said Moderna’s experimental CMV shot did not show initial efficacy in a Phase 3 trial. The decision means Moderna must continue testing its vaccine. If successful, the shot could protect against cytomegalovirus, which is related to the virus that causes chickenpox, herpes, and mononucleosis.
“While the third quarter was an encouraging start to the company’s redesigned path in terms of cost reductions, today’s update casts a cloud on its trajectory,” William Blair analyst Miles Minter said in a note. “It seems like it’s happening,” he said. “We continue to look at Moderna as a show-me story.”
Moderna’s ‘tough update’
RBC Capital Markets analyst Luca Issi said this is a “tough update” for Moderna.
However, Moderna’s remaining pipeline updates are on track, he said in the report. The company expects the Food and Drug Administration to issue a decision to approve its next-generation coronavirus vaccine in late May. Additionally, Moderna is working to expand its RSV vaccine to younger patients and expects important trial data from its norovirus vaccine later this year.
“Overall, we continue to believe in the long-term potential of our cancer vaccines and broader platform, but we face multiple short-term headwinds (such as COVID-19, which has not yet found a bottom and “We continue to see strong performance in this area, including as the pandemic continues to take hold,” he said.
Issi lowered his price target for Moderna stock from 50 to 40.
Leerink Partners analyst Mani Foruhar reiterated his underperform rating on Moderna stock. He wasn’t surprised to see the stock drop significantly, given the “headwinds to the 2025 growth outlook.” In short, “I can’t find any intonation.”
X/ Follow Alison Gatlin on Twitter (@IBD_AGatlin).
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