SAN ANTONIO — Aki Sasaki is such a talent that teams need to prepare for the possibility that the Japanese pitcher will become an international free agent, but club officials say that doesn’t really happen this winter. I don’t know yet if it will happen. Complex negotiations between the Chiba Lotte Marines, Japan Baseball Organization and Major League Baseball could determine the future of the sport’s next potential superstar.
Amid uncertainty, Sasaki was popular this week at the MLB General Managers Conference, which gathered agents, executives and reporters at the JW Marriott San Antonio Hill Country Resort & Spa. Of course, the early buzz centered on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Because these days they always seem to get what they want. But if Sasaki were to enter the posting system at age 23, there would be a frenzy.
Here’s what you need to know, based on information from league sources.
Why Mr. Sasaki has to wait
NPB regulations and the collective bargaining agreement with MLB do not guarantee that Sasaki will become a free agent this offseason. All NPB players must serve nine years in Japan before becoming eligible for international free agency. Sasaki only has four jumps so he will need the cooperation of his team to make the jump.
Due to financial incentives, the Chiba Lotte Marines may be forced to keep Sasaki for the time being. Through the posting system, Japanese teams receive fees that are calculated based on different percentages depending on the player’s release fee, contract bonus and certain annual salary criteria.
Considering Sasaki’s age, he is only eligible for a minor league contract under MLB’s posting rules. This potential deal would be funded by international bonus pool money. Each club’s current allocation is less than $8 million.
Therefore, there is a huge gap between the salary Sasaki would receive now, and as a by-product of that, the Chiba Lotte Marines would receive now, and if he had waited until he was 25 years old.
Roki Sasaki had 9 strikeouts in 8 scoreless innings in Game 1 against the Fighters. pic.twitter.com/O5IsZYR5sB
— Jason Coskrey (@JCoskrey) October 12, 2024
follow the money
If Sasaki takes the post this offseason, he would expect a bonus similar to what Shohei Ohtani received when he faced the same restrictions. In 2017, Ohtani chose the Los Angeles Angels after a fierce recruiting battle and signed for $2.3 million, a portion of his final award and the value he created for the West Coast team.
The difference between a major league contract and a minor league contract, and in this case whether you’re 23 or 25, is huge.
Last winter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto waited until after his 25th birthday to go through the posting process before signing a record $325 million contract with the Dodgers. Yamamoto’s posting fee to his former team, the Orix Buffaloes, cost the Dodgers an additional $50.6 million.
Executives said Sasaki cannot be expected to remain in the pitching market like Yamamoto did a year ago because of the limited bonus pool.
Teams to participate
In theory, all clubs should participate as the investment is relatively small. The difference between one club’s international bonus pool and another club’s pool is small. It won’t be as much an escalating bidding war as a hiring war.
Still, the general consensus in the industry is that the Dodgers are close to being the favorites. However, Mr. Sasaki’s exact preferences are still unknown. The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs are among the teams actively scouting him. On Wednesday, Mets director of baseball operations David Stearns said he traveled to Japan in September to watch Sasaki pitch as a way to show some interest and respect. And Mr. Stearns is not the only powerful executive to take such action.
The New York Yankees and San Diego Padres are among the groups that have extensively scouted and signed players from Asia in recent years. The team will likely then have the opportunity to make a presentation to try to sell Sasaki on their vision.
NPB has set December 15th as the last publication date for the cycle. There is a 45-day negotiation period from the date a player is posted until a contract is signed. The deadline and duration are the same whether a player signs a major league contract or a minor league contract.
scouting report
With a 160 mph fastball and a devastating splitter, Sasaki is being looked at as a top starter in the rotation. “He reminds me of Jacob deGrom,” one industry insider said. “He’s going to grow into No. 1.”
“If he was an amateur draft pick, he would easily be in the top five of the draft, probably higher,” one executive said.
even deeper
Roki Sasaki has the best. What if we translated that to Major League Baseball?
Sasaki is younger than Yamamoto and doesn’t have a track record of honing his game or logging innings. Partly due to injuries, Sasaki’s workload (less than 400 innings) in NPB thus far has been less than half of what Yamamoto has produced. That experience helped Yamamoto adapt quickly to Dodger Stadium, where he defeated the Padres in the playoff elimination game and won the World Series against the Yankees.
Sasaki’s learning curve could be even steeper. There’s also a sense that there’s still plenty of room for growth and that the challenge of pitching on the sport’s biggest stage will accelerate that growth.
A club official said, “He’s not as complete as Yamamoto.” “But there aren’t many people in the world who are as talented.”
(Top photo of Aki Sasaki pitching for Japan in 2023: Eric Espada / Getty Images)
