Minnesota on Tuesday did not see the political shake-up that some on both sides of the aisle had predicted before the election. Instead, it seemed like voters would send a subdued rebuke to Democrats and end the DFL’s overall control over state government.
Before the election, Democrats and Republicans expressed optimism for very similar reasons. Governor Tim Walz was listed on the ballot as Vice President Harris’ running mate.
Democrats saw this as an opportunity to energize their base and independent voters who might be excited to bring Minnesota closer to the White House. Republicans saw Walz’s selection as a galvanizing event for conservatives and independents who have been put off by the state’s far-left shift over the past two years.
Minnesota’s electoral turmoil is not completely resolved, but neither side appears to have been proven right.
For now, this is good news for small business owners in the state. The NFIB-endorsed candidates have performed well, and this tie will force more moderate solutions to the challenges facing Minnesota.
minnesota state legislature
Minnesota Senate: Democrat Ann Johnson Stewart defeats Republican Kathleen Faulk by 5 points in a winner-take-all special election for Minnesota Senate District 45, putting Faulk 7 points from losing in 2022. Improved.
This seat was vacated by U.S. Rep.-elect Kelly Morrison (MN-03).
Johnson Stewart’s victory restored the DFL’s majority, 34-33, but the theft charges against Nicole Mitchell (D-Woodbury) remain unresolved.
Minnesota House: As for the main event…The Minnesota House is currently tied with 67 Democrats and 67 Republicans. At least two seats will be automatically recounted because the margin is less than 0.5%. In both cases, incumbent Democrats won.
– St. Cloud (14B): Walgamott (D) +28 votes
– Shakopee (54A): Tabke +13 votes
It is possible that other races will undergo recounts, but the cost is on the competitors, conducting a recount is expensive, and there is a high chance that the outcome will change, so it is unlikely. It’s probably low.
Republicans gained three seats, resulting in a tie.
– Iron Range (7B): Cal War was the default. Rory Giannatopoulos, 56% vs. 44%
Walwas’ victory is another sign of a major shift in political allegiances in northern Minnesota. This district was one of the last DFL holdouts in the range.
– St. Peter/North Mankato (18A): Erica Schwartz def. Rep. Jeff Bland, 52% to 48%
The seat, which has bounced back and forth between political parties in the past two elections, is becoming a beacon for the state. If Republicans win here, they can pick up seats statewide. If Democrats win here, they could maintain control in St. Paul.
– Winona (26A): Aaron Lepinski def. Sarah Krueger, 53% vs. 47%
The district has been held by moderate DFL Gene Perowski for 38 years, even as the rest of southeastern Minnesota has moved to the right. Lepinski’s victory completes a realignment of the Republican Party in this part of the state.
Democrats were able to avoid becoming a minority by holding on to the suburban constituencies they have held primarily since 2018. In addition to Shakopee, Democrats narrowly won in Anoka, Blaine, Chaska and Coon Rapids.
what’s happening? There are three trends worth noting that could be important in future parliamentary elections.
1) Republicans made gains in less competitive Minnesota metropolitan areas and Twin Cities suburbs. The large margins in some of these seats are beginning to rival the margins in DFL strongholds like Minneapolis, St. Paul, and the First Ring suburbs (30-50% margins of victory in contested seats).
2) Republicans also increased their margins and flipped seats in competitive races in regional centers across Minnesota. History suggests that Republicans will continue to increase their margins in some of these areas, at least for the foreseeable future. But outside of the metropolitan areas, chances are shrinking for Republicans, with only a handful of truly competitive seats remaining, and only one of them is held by a DFLer.
3) Democrats have held on to seats in the Twin Cities suburbs, but their margin of victory has not widened. In other words, Democrats haven’t sealed off suburban swing seats the way Republicans have sealed off many of the former swing seats in metropolitan Minnesota. As a result, Democrats’ path to control of the Minnesota House of Representatives increasingly passes through up to 10 narrowly divided suburbs.
Taken together, these trends could have a major impact on the 2026 gubernatorial and state Senate elections. Large-scale MOVs in suburban and rural areas present an opportunity for qualified Republicans to end the party’s 20-year losing streak in statewide elections.
The entire Minnesota Senate will be up for election in 2026, but things have changed for DFL members since last night, as Republicans were able to make significant gains on the more conservative side of the Senate districts currently held by Democrats. It looks like things will get even tougher.
What’s next? The two parties need to negotiate how to share power in the chamber.
Only once in the state’s nearly 170 years has there been a tie in the 134 House seats. In 1978, Republicans won an unexpected victory after a backlash against Governor Wendell Anderson’s resignation and Vice President Mondale’s appointment to a U.S. Senate seat.
In subsequent negotiations, Democrats negotiated for the chair of the Rules, Taxes, and Appropriations Committee and a majority of votes on the Rules and Taxes Committee. Republicans received a one-vote majority in the speaker’s gavel, most other committee chairs, and the tax subcommittee.
You can read more about that episode here: The year the House was tied, and how the two parties made peace…until there was no peace – Session Daily – Minnesota House of Representatives.
Spoiler: I messed up. We expect the same in 2025.
federal race
Sen. Amy Klobuchar defeated Republican Royce White to win a fourth term. However, Klobuchar received the lowest percentage of votes ever (approximately 56%).
In Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District, Congresswoman Angie Craig won a surprising and decisive victory over first-time candidate Joe Teilove, 55% to 42%.
In the 3rd Congressional District, former state Sen. Kelly Morrison won by 17 points in the race to replace retiring Rep. Dean Phillips. Morrison defeated former state court judge and county commissioner Tad Jude.
All other incumbent members of the U.S. House of Representatives (Rep. Emmer, Rep. Stover, Rep. Fischbach, Rep. Finstad, Rep. McCollum, and Rep. Omar) all easily won reelection to the House.
