The Maryland Terrapins will face the Florida Gators in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. The tip-off is set at 7:39 PM ET on TBS.
Florida favors 6.5 points in the spread on the money line of -305. The total is set to 156.5 points.
Here is my Maryland vs Florida prediction and college basketball pick for March 27, 2025.
Maryland vs Florida predictions
My Pick: Maryland +6.5 (played to +5.5)
My best Maryland vs Florida bet is in the spread of Terps, with the best odds available at Draftkings now. For all college basketball bets, make sure to use the Live NCAAB odds page to find the best line.
Maryland vs Florida Ods
Thursday, March 27th
7:39pm
TBS
+6.5
-110
156.5
-110O / -110U
+245
Florida OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline
-6.5
-110
156.5
-110O / -110U
-305
Maryland vs Florida spread: Florida-6.5 Mariland vs Florida Over/Under: 156.5 Points Mariland vs Florida Money Line: Florida-305, Maryland +245 Mariland vs Florida Best: Maryland +6.5 (play +5.5)
My Maryland vs Florida Sweet 16 Bet Preview
Entering Big Dance, Florida was the trendiest title pick as the season finished hot. UConn wanted a 3-peat opportunity, so the Gators had to fight hard to reach Sweet 16.
On the contrary, Maryland is the luckyest member of the Sweet 16. Colorado was leading with 3.4 seconds left, but star freshman Derrick Queen saved the day.
Maryland and Florida have first been in two major categories in the past six weeks. Terrapin has been ranked number one in defensive efficiency since February 1st. Florida, meanwhile, is America’s best offensive team in the same range.
Can Maryland slow down Florida’s dominant crime? Terps need to slow down the game to make an actual shot. They rank 194th in the adjusted tempo compared to Florida’s 52nd ranking in the same category.
If Maryland can put the game in the half court – likely to result from gaining a defensive stop – that’s a big way to cover it.
The main source of Maryland’s defensive success is limiting the team from boundaries. The opponents have filmed just 28% from downtown in their last 13 games against Terps.
I don’t see many returns either. The Terps’ defense is truly elite, and Kevin Willard is one of the top defensive coaches in the sport.
But Coach Willard will have to fire from the guards on the other side of the floor. Terps plays two big systems with Queen and Julian Reese, only one of which is a somewhat capable shooter. This makes the “Crab Five” boundaries even more important.
Oddly, Maryland is a two-point shooting team (2-47%) despite having two post-studs. That’s why Ja’kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel need to hit shots to reach their full potential.
If Terps struggles to take advantage of one of the things that block Florida from the Elite (49.3% 2-PT), it could be a tough game unless it gets off from 3.
Gillespie is the key to Maryland. He averages 14.6 points and five assists per game, shooting 40% from downtown. He will have a tough matchup with Walter Clayton Jr. of the nation, so he needs to have a strong performance.
Terps are elites that include two main elements of Florida’s attack: transition scoring and shooting. The Gator will descend the spot-up jumper at 21% of his possessions (0.998 PPP) and will transition and play 19% of his time (1.203 PPP).
Conversely, Maryland ranks in the 90th percentile in spot-up defense and in the 96th percentile in transition defense. It would be quite difficult to see the attacks of Florida elites against first-class defenses.
Florida security guards could also be a bit striped. Clayton struggled against UCONN in the first half before erupting in the second half. Aliya Martin could be a bit unstable from downtown, and Will Richard is a strong third choice.
However, there remains room for variance for teams that shoot for 3 seconds with 43% of field goals.
The Gator as a 6.5-point favorite is a bit too rich for my blood. The Terps are legally good and should give Florida enough push to their defense.
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