Speaker Mike Johnson will face a major challenge in the new Congress with the narrowest House majority in nearly 100 years.
It’s whether he can hold the gavel.
Republicans will soon control the House, Senate, and White House. However, a narrow margin could jeopardize President-elect Donald Trump’s policies. And there will be little room for error for Johnson when the House of Commons votes on Friday to choose the speaker of the new parliament.
Republicans won 220 seats in the November election, compared to Democrats’ 215, giving them the narrowest House majority since the onset of the Great Depression nearly a century ago.
And those margins will rapidly shrink further.
The partisan split is expected to be 219-215 when the House convenes, as former Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida has announced he will not return to Congress.
From there, the majority is expected to fall to 217-215, with two Republicans expected to join the Trump administration.
At that point, House Republicans won’t be able to let a single defector leave to pass legislation along party lines until the vacancy is filled.
With Republicans in control of Washington, there will be intense pressure on Republican leaders to quickly enact President Trump’s policies.
However, because profit margins are extremely narrow, ordinary members can exert tremendous influence by pressing demands on the chair.
Johnson already had to deal with it often in the form of pressure from the right, but that dynamic is only going to get stronger going forward.
A majority of all members present and voting are required to pass a bill in the House of Representatives. The magic number is 218 if all members are present to vote and all 435 seats are filled, but that can change if there are vacancies or absences. A tie vote in the House of Representatives results in a failure.
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