The Detroit Lions look to strengthen their conference and division lead and defeat the Green Bay Packers for the fifth time in the last six contests dating back to Week 18 of Dan Campbell’s first season.
All statistics were available through NFL Pro unless otherwise noted. Now, let’s take a look at what the Lions are up against against these cheeseheads in my three biggest matchups.
Love is Blind.. Against Blitzkrieg
The biggest key to the Lions’ defensive effort will be limiting quarterback Jordan Love from using his rare arm talent and complementary deep receiving corps to take over. Even with a groin injury, Love has the ability to be one of the few quarterbacks on a heater, as evidenced by his league-leading 7.5% touchdown rate.
Fortunately for the Lions, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn may be up to the task in this matchup.
The Lions defense’s blitz rate of 32.2% is the sixth highest in the NFL. Their defense blitzed even without Aidan Hutchinson, as they blitzed on 47% of their dropbacks over the past two weeks. Like last year, Glenn will have an extra defender on the pass rush. Meanwhile, the Packers offense is actually the most blitzed team in the league with a dropback rate of 35.7%.
We feel it necessary to provide a red flag on some of Jordan Love’s stats against the blitz. Against blitzes, Love averaged just 4.6 yards per pass (26th in the NFL), -0.43 EPA per dropback (31st – behind Will Revis), and -6.0% better than expected completion rate (27th) ). Green Bay’s offense, including Malik Willis, has blitzed more catches than expected, ranking 30th in catches for -15 yards.
For comparison, when Love isn’t blitzed, he leads the NFL with 9.3 yards per attempt, ranks second in +0.28 EPA/dropback, and ranks second with 12 passing touchdowns, a completely different quarter. It’s back.
Blitz love wasn’t his forte in 2023, and he was below average in most metrics, but by no means was he a pumpkin like he was this year. Basically, when Love is blitzed, his attempted yards are cut in half. He throws more checkdowns, is much less likely to put points on the board, is more inaccurate, and the offense loses potential yards after the catch.
The Lions can’t take him all down and will have to survive when rushing just four defenders. When the pocket is clean, Love is more comfortable stepping up to make big plays. He had a number of off-script successes during the Jaguars game, even when he was visibly limping. The Lions’ goal will be to use their extra bodies to crush the pocket. If they are successful, this should be a great matchup for second- and third-level defenders to wreak havoc in the backfield and potentially through the air. They need to physically tax Love, test his groin problem and add to Love’s league-leading nine interceptions against a defense that is tied for second-most interceptions in the league. Probably. I hear Brian Branch loves eating cheese curds.
General Goff stops the blitzkrieg
Jared Goff’s performance when his opponent blitzes is a reflection of Jordan Love’s struggles. Goff leads the NFL with +0.42 EPA/dropback and 10.2 passing yards/play against the blitz. Additionally, when Goff was blitzed, the Lions’ offense led the league in averaging +134 yards after the catch and was fourth in pass catchers averaging 4.0 yards on target.
However, the Packers defense blitzes on only 17.5% of dropbacks, which ranks 31st in the NFL. When their defense isn’t blitzing, results are mixed, ranking fourth in -0.20 EPA/dropback but allowing the fourth-most YACOE at +165.
The Lions’ offense needs to make the most of its opportunities when it’s blitzed, but it also needs to maintain a relatively strong attack when it’s not blitzed. No matter what Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley does, they should dine in the YAC department.
One thing in the Lions’ favor is that Green Bay may not have much control over not blitzing in this matchup. The Lions’ offensive juggernaut may call for another onslaught to keep the Packers from rolling into the ground. That’s when Ben Johnson and Goff struck lightning in a bottle.
On dropbacks where opponents blitz the Lions, the Lions lead the league by a wide margin with a play-action pass usage rate of 57.3.%. If the Lions spam the run game and play an action offense, it will pick poison for the defense. That’s the beauty of the Lions’ offensive system, their physical run game requires the defense to make an extra effort to contain it, and the Lions have one of the best play-action passing attacks in the NFL. Complement it.
Continuity on the offensive line is lacking.
I wanted to get through the Packers’ big heavies up front, emphasizing how important it is for the Lions to keep Love from getting too hot and heavy.
For the first eight games of the season, the Packers had the same starting lineup from left: Rasheed Walker, Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, Sean Ryan and Zach Tom. First-round rookie Jordan Morgan was rotated in several series and also played 24% of the snaps at right guard.
Tom is by far PFF’s eighth-highest rated offensive tackle, but the rest of the unit’s individual performance is less than impressive. Myers ranks next highest at his position, but only 39th out of 40 centers, and neither of the other three starters have a top-40 rating at their position.
But this aggressive policy is a case of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. Unfortunately for the Lions, the Packers have been churning out reliable offensive lines for over two decades.
The Packers’ pass protection metrics help show why Love can be successful (especially if he’s not successful blitzing). They are 4th in sack percentage (just 4.8% of dropbacks), 5th in total sacks allowed (12) and 12th in quarterback pressure rate (30.8% of dropbacks). Led by highly regarded offensive line coach (and offensive coordinator) Adam Stenavich, this group provides a safe pocket for the Packers’ passers, aided by creative and friendly play-calling as well.
One weakness the Lions could expose that threatens the continuity of the offensive line is starting center Myers’ ongoing wrist injury. Myers injured his wrist in Week 7 against the Texans, missed a few snaps in that game, and played the entirety of last week’s game against the Jaguars. He has not participated in any practice this week and is currently listed as questionable.
“(He) was a huge piece of continuity up front for us,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “He’s the kind of guy who drives the ship up front and makes the calls. (…) He’s one of those players who is like the heart and soul of the team.”
It seems like the captain’s heart and soul are important too.
The Packers expect a game of musical chairs up front, with Myers out, sending Jenkins from left guard to center, Ryan from right guard to left guard, and Morgan making his first NFL career start at right guard. It will be fulfilled. Alim McNeil and DJ Reeder should absolutely take advantage of the uncertain shuffling of the Packers’ interior offensive line. More importantly, the blitzes and defensive front stunts designed by the Lions should lead to missed blocking assignments due to a lack of chemistry, resulting in shocking plays on the defensive end. It will be.
