sThe political crisis in Korea continues. After President Yoon Sook-Yeol was arrested and fired after the suspension of martial law last December, the Constitutional Court decides his future. Legal experts say Yoon will soon be in office and will be sent to prison.
To make things even more complicated, the same court would rule that could disqualify opposition leader Ye Mun from an election he currently prefers to win. Lee is suing a conviction for violating the election law in 2022, and if two appeals courts affirm it, he will be banned from office for 10 years. The final verdict is expected next month. Yes, that’s confusion.
And the soap opera aspect of crisis obscures important reality. South Korea’s foreign policy is about to have a major impact on the US, China, North Korea and Japan, and dramatically change. Lee was runner-up in the final election of 2022 and is a talented politician who has integrated support within the Democratic Party (DP) in central South Korea. The ruling conservative power parties (PPPs) are confused and it appears they cannot send heavyweight candidates quickly enough to win.
Yoon’s government has significantly improved its long-standing major ties with former colonial master Japan and has worked closely with Washington on East Asia’s security strategy. For now, Lee, who is running as a centreist, argues that the US-Korea alliance must remain the “bedrock foundation” of South Korea’s diplomacy, national security and economic development. However, Lee’s persistent criticism of Yoon’s parental emphasis suggests friction with the Trump administration over trade, security cooperation and involvement with North Korea. Lee has already proposed to establish a bipartisan committee focused on preparing for a “very likely trade war” with the United States, demonstrating a more confrontational approach to Washington.
Lee also calls for new diplomatic talks with North Korea to ensure South Korea is not pushed to the side if President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong are set in new talks. Former centre left South Korean President Moon Jane was ruled out at the first Trump Kim meetings in 2018 and 2019.
In his recent foreign policy speech, Lee spoke little about Japan’s relationship with China, but once again, his intense criticism of Yoon’s involvement with Tokyo shows a different approach. Lee ignored the crimes Japan committed against South Korea in the 1930s and 1940s, and condemned the refractions and scuffs in front of Japan’s current government. Also, Lee should expect to support deeper economic and diplomatic engagement with China. Leeds’ ally and best friend Woo Won-Shik visited China in February to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. Woo used the trip to reassure Xi that the South Korean DP government would privilege a better relationship with his country, and XI’s decision to meet with WOO personally signaled how happy he would be to hear this. In an unlikely event, if the court blocks Lee’s candidacy, Wu will be a scary alternative.
Meanwhile, Yoon is facing another criminal trial on charges of rebellion. He could face death penalty if convicted, but even a prison sentence would be sufficient to further anger the pro-yoon protesters who rioted when he was first arrested in January. From a bystander’s perspective, policymakers in Washington, Beijing, Tokyo and Pyongyang focus on both the dangers and opportunities created by South Korea’s political turmoil.
