Several down-ballot elections early in the new year will be the first test of the political environment following Donald Trump and the Republican Party’s victory in November.
The first months of 2025 will see a special legislative election in Virginia, an election in battleground Wisconsin that will once again determine the ideological balance of the state Supreme Court, and a special election targeting Trump’s current (and former) Cabinet nominees. Elections will be held.
While these races aren’t as flashy as the presidential politics that has captivated Americans for much of the past two years, they will still attract a lot of money and attention at the end of the year, when the Republican Party looks to build on its momentum. . The Democratic Party is trying to regain its footing.
Here are the key state and local races to watch in the first half of 2025.
Virginia special election
Two special elections will be held in Loudoun County, Virginia, on January 7th to determine control of the state Legislature, with voters returning to the polls just weeks after the presidential election.
Voters will elect a new lawmaker to fill the seat vacated by state senator Suhas Subrahmanyam, who was elected to Congress in November. They will also fill the state Lok Sabha seat vacated by a candidate who resigned to run for Mr. Subrahmanyam’s seat.
Democrat Kanan Srinivasan is running against Republican Twomey Harding in the state Senate race. In the state House race, Democrat JJ Singh will face off against Republican Ram Venkachalam.
According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Democrats are favored to win both elections because the district has firmly supported Kamala Harris in the presidential election. But the difference in a race where turnout is expected to be low could provide a clue as to which direction the political winds are blowing in states where Republicans have managed to gain ground in recent years. do not have.
Republican Glenn Youngkin won the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial race, just one year after Joe Biden carried the state by 10 points in 2020. Virginia is set to host another high-profile election campaign to succeed Youngkin in November 2025, following a presidential election in which Trump narrowed the Democratic lead to less than a sliver. 6 points.
“Virginia is like the first election after a major national election,” said Tim Storey, CEO of the National Conference of State Legislatures.
“There is a pattern of Virginia going against the grain of previous national political cycles,” he added. “So if you’re a Virginia Democrat, you probably have a little bit of an edge going into the election.”
The two contests will also determine the partisan balance in each legislative chamber.
Following Subrahmanyam’s resignation, Democrats now have a 20-19 majority in the Virginia Senate. If Democrats lose the special election, control of the Legislature would shift to Republicans, as Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears has the power to break ties.
Srinivasan’s resignation does not take effect until January 7, giving Democrats a 51-49 majority in the House of Representatives. If the Republicans win, it will be a 50-50 tie. If there is an equal number of votes in the chamber, it will be a defeat. Similar situations have occurred in the past, when the two parties have struck power-sharing agreements in state legislatures.
Republicans gaining control of one or both chambers could be especially meaningful for Youngkin, who is in the final year of his term, as it could lay the groundwork for a run for high office. There is.
Wisconsin Supreme Court Election
In less than two years, liberals won control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court for the first time in 15 years.
In April, ideological control of the bench in the heart of the battleground state is once again at stake.
As in 2023, the April 1 election to replace 73-year-old Liberal Justice Anne Walsh Bradley is likely to be an expensive and tight race. And it promises to feature many of the same hot-button issues that defined the race two years ago, including abortion rights and redistricting.
Dane County Judge Susan Crawford is running as a liberal, and Brad Schimel, a former Republican state attorney general and Waukesha County judge, is running as a conservative. Although the court is technically nonpartisan, candidates can take public positions on political issues and receive support from state political parties during campaigns.
Such was the case in 2023, when liberal Janet Protasiewicz made support for abortion rights and opposition to the state’s gerrymandered maps the centerpiece of her successful campaign. The two issues were scheduled to be raised in court after her inauguration.
Republicans have said they are prepared to wage a battle for the entire court and the powers that come with it.
“It’s not just one seat on the court. It’s three or four years of court control,” said Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Brian Simming. He cited a recent ruling by a state judge overturning a landmark anti-union law enacted by then-Gov. Scott Walker added in 2011 that “reform goes back decades and is on the brink.” The case is almost certain to be heard in the state Supreme Court next year and is likely to feature prominently in the election campaign.
Since neither side has multiple candidates running, Crawford and Schimel could quickly zero in on each other heading into the general election. (In 2023, multiple candidates ran on both sides, resulting in a collapse of the conservative base).
Another key difference from the last Supreme Court election is that Republicans are much bolder this time around, following Trump’s victory over Harris in Wisconsin. In 2023, Democrats were coming off a string of successes across the state in the years since Trump won the state in 2016.
Nevertheless, Democrats have signaled they will try to tie Schimmel to the broader Trump-centered brand of the Republican Party, hoping that progressives will be energized in the year-end elections.
“This is going to be a different district than a presidential year,” said Joe Oslund, a spokesman for the Wisconsin Democratic Party, adding that in a race where turnout could be low, “we’re going after President Trump.” He added that it means that.
Asked if he thought Democrats could make Trump vulnerable to Schimmel, Schimming dismissed the idea.
“Frankly, they just made that mistake,” he said.
special house election
Meanwhile, several special elections are expected to be held next year in safe Republican seats in the U.S. House of Representatives to replace Trump’s Cabinet nominees.
These include Congressman Mike Walz (R-Fla.), whom President Trump nominated to be National Security Advisor, and Congresswoman Elise Stafanik (R-N.Y.), whom President Trump nominated to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Includes seats currently held.
There will also be a special election for the seat held by former Congressman Matt Gaetz. The Florida Republican resigned following President Trump’s pick for attorney general. Gates ultimately withdrew from consideration following allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denied.
Florida Secretary of State Cord Byrd announced that special primary elections for the Walz and Gates seats will be held on January 28th, and special general elections for both seats will be held on April 1st.
Walz is scheduled to resign from the House of Representatives on January 20, after Trump is officially sworn in. His nomination does not require Senate confirmation.
Stefanik, whose position requires Senate confirmation, has not said when he will step down. Under state law, New York Governor Kathy Hochul must set a date for a special election within 90 days of leaving office.
All three districts are solidly Republican, but the differences may shed some light on how voters are feeling about the early weeks of President Trump’s second term.
