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Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa, a surprising reversal for Democrats and Republicans who had assumed that Trump was certain to win the state’s presidential election.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears to be deadlocked in key battleground states. 47% to 44%.
The results show that a September Iowa poll showed Trump leading Harris by 4 points, and a June Iowa poll showed Trump leading President Joe Biden, then the presumptive Democratic nominee, by 18 points. This was in response to the fact that they were shown to be in the lead.
“No one can say they saw this coming. She has clearly risen to a leading position,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of the polling firm Selzer & Company.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. abandoned his independent presidential campaign in favor of Trump, but remains on the Iowa ballot with 3% of the vote. This was down from 6% in September and 9% in June.
Less than 1% said they would vote for Libertarian Party presidential candidate Chase Oliver, 1% said they would vote for someone else, they did not know which, and 2% said they had already voted for someone. He says he doesn’t want to.
The poll surveyed 808 likely voters in Iowa, including those who had already voted as well as those who said they definitely intended to vote, and was conducted by Selzer & Company on October 28. It was conducted from the 31st to the 31st. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The results come as Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris have focused almost exclusively on seven battleground states that are expected to determine the outcome of the election. Neither candidate has campaigned in Iowa since the end of the presidential primary, and neither candidate has established a foothold in the state.
Harris’ victory would be a surprising development, given that Iowa has moved aggressively to the right in recent elections, with Trump securing solid victories in 2016 and 2020.
More information: How do past Iowa poll results compare to Iowa presidential election results?
Polls show that women, especially older and politically independent women, are driving the late shift to Harris.
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors explaining these numbers,” Selzer said.
Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the run-up to this election, have now turned to Harris. This is driven by the strength of independent women, who support Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a small margin.
Similarly, older voters over 65 support Harris. But older women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while older men support her by just 2 points (47% to 45%). .
“I like her policies on reproductive health, I like the fact that women have the ability to make their own health care choices, and I like the fact that she believes in saving our democracy and following the rule of law,” says London Public Opinion. said Linda Marshall, 79, who responded to the survey. Cascade has already cast an absentee ballot for Harris.
The registered Democrat said he identifies as pro-life but doesn’t think anyone should make that choice for anyone else.
“If Republicans can decide what to do with their bodies, what else are they going to do to limit women’s choices?” she said.
More: Is Iowa returning to being a presidential battleground state? What a new Iowa poll shows
One advantage Trump has over Harris is that more Trump supporters say they are very or extremely enthusiastic about their election than Harris supporters. There are more.
Seventy-six percent of Trump supporters say they are very or extremely enthusiastic about their choice, while the remaining 23% say they are somewhat or not so enthusiastic.
As for Harris, 71% are very or very enthusiastic, down from 80% in September, while 29% are moderate or less enthusiastic.
Polls show that very few Iowa voters are still undecided, with 91% saying they are undecided, up from 80% in September.
This includes 96% of Harris supporters and 95% of Trump supporters who firmly believe in their choice.
More information: Des Moines Register/Mediacom How is the Iowa Poll conducted? Answers to frequently asked questions.
Independents support Kamala Harris, but there is a gender gap, Iowa poll reveals
In 2020, the Register’s Iowa poll found Biden and Trump tied among all likely voters in September. But in the final polls before Election Day that year, independents defeated Trump, ultimately giving him an 8-point victory over Biden.
This year, independents appear to be turning against Harris. The move is spurred by growing support among independent women.
Prospective independent voters, who have backed Trump in every Iowa poll this year, now support Harris, 46% to 39%.
Independent women now choose Harris over Trump, 57% to 29%. This is an increase from September, when Independent Women gave them just a 5-point lead, 40% to 35%.
Independent men still support Mr. Trump 47% to 37%, about the same as in September, when independent men supported Mr. Trump 46% to 33%.
Overall, Harris holds a 20-point lead over women, 56% to 36%, the same as in September.
But Trump’s lead with men has narrowed from 27 points (59% to 32%) in September to 14 points (52% to 38%) now.
Maia Williams, an 18-year-old college freshman and poll respondent, said she doesn’t identify with either Democrats or Republicans. But she’s excited to be part of the effort to elect the country’s first Black female president.
“I love what she represents and that she’s a woman and the opposite of what Trump represents,” Williams said. “She’s something new.”
She said she likes Harris’ stance on abortion rights and dislikes the changes Trump made to overtime rules while in office.
Harris holds a slim lead over Trump among likely Iowa voters under 35, 46% to 44%.
Harris’ support will grow among likely voters 65 and older, as older Iowans are more reliable voters and tend to turn out at a disproportionately high rate. could be a benefit.
The poll found 62% of Iowans under 35 are likely to vote, down from 73% in September.
But 93% of older adults say they are likely to vote, even higher than the 84% who said so in September.
“If you want a horse to ride, you want an older person because they vote,” Selzer said.
Donald Trump holds on to his base: Evangelicals, rural Iowans, men.
Trump continues to lead with his core base of voters: men, evangelicals, rural residents and people without college degrees.
His approval rating is 52% to 38% among Iowa men and 73% to 20% among evangelicals.
Poll respondent Joel Funk, 26, of Garden Grove, said he was excited to vote early for Trump. The registered Republican said the economy is the biggest issue facing the country right now.
“We lived through four years with him (Trump) as president, and I would say those four years were the best four years economically of my lifetime,” he said. Ta. “Then we had four years of insurrection, high inflation, and increased illegal immigration. A lot of things I don’t think are best for America.”
Mr. Trump leads those living in rural areas (55% to 35%) and those living in urban areas (49% to 40%). However, Harris deals with urban (61% to 33%) and suburban (59% to 36%) people.
Among those without a college degree, Trump leads 51% to 39%. And Harris wins college graduates 61% to 31%.
Funk, an automation engineer, doesn’t like that Harris was nominated without going through the normal primary process.
“After the actual primary polls, they kind of put her in Joe Biden’s place,” he said. “So I don’t think she was actually elected by the people. … And based on the interviews that both of them have done, she said she would maintain the same style of policy (as Biden). That’s not so much for us. I don’t think it was great.”
Various issues move Democrats and Republicans
The issues driving Trump supporters are very different from the issues driving Harris supporters, according to the Iowa poll.
Those who voted for President Trump say inflation and the economy were the most important consideration in their decision to support him. 49% of his supporters cite it as the most important issue.
A further 25% said immigration was a factor in their decision.
The biggest issue for Harris supporters is “the future of democracy,” with 51% citing it as the most important issue. Another 22% said it was an abortion.
“The voting issues are different for each group of supporters,” Selzer said.
Some former Donald Trump supporters will leave him in 2024
Harris maintains the support of nearly all Democrats, with 97% saying they support her and 0% saying they support Trump.
But 5% of Republicans say they would vote for her over Trump. Trump controls 89% of Republicans.
The poll found that a small number of people say they used to support Trump but have now switched their vote to someone else.
Among those who do not support Trump, 16% said they had supported him at some point, and 81% said they had never supported Trump. The remaining 3% are not sure.
Poll taker Ralph Newbanks, 63, of Solon, said he is a lifelong Republican and plans to vote for Harris this year.
“That’s not what I like about her, it’s what I don’t like about Trump,” he said. “After 2020 and the Capitol riot, I couldn’t vote for Mr. Trump, who gives me money, not love or money.”
He considered voting for a third-party candidate, but did not want to submit a protest vote. He wants to prevent President Trump from returning to the White House.
“To me, the biggest part of democracy is the ability to compromise,” he said. “And when it comes to Donald Trump and the MAGA movement, there will be no compromise, even within their own party.”
Among those who do not support Trump, 67% consider themselves “never a Trump supporter.” Another 26% say they are “definitely not a Trumper,” and 8% are not sure.
Of those who said they voted for Trump in 2020, 89% said they would vote again this year, and 4% said they would vote for Harris.
Of those who said they voted for Biden, 93% said they would vote for Harris in the future, and 4% said they would vote for Trump.
Among those who did not vote, Harris led 47% to 44%.
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief political reporter for the Des Moines Register. She is also covering the 2024 presidential election as USA TODAY’s national campaign correspondent. Contact us at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow @brianneDMR on Twitter.
About the Iowa Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 28-31, 2024, by Selzer & Company in Des Moines for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, shows Iowans 18 and older who say they definitely will vote or have already voted. Based on telephone interviews with 808 people. Voted in the 2024 general election for president and other offices.
Quantel Research interviewers contacted 1,038 adults in Iowa using randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers provided by Dynata. The interview was conducted in English. Based on recent census data, responses were adjusted by age, gender, and congressional district to reflect the general population.
The question, based on a sample of 808 likely Iowa voters, has a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated 19 out of 20 times with the same questions and the same methodology, the survey results would not differ by more than plus or minus 3.4 percentage points from the true population value. Masu. Results based on a small sample of respondents, such as by gender or age, have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyrighted Iowa Poll without credit or linking to the original content of The Des Moines Register and Mediacom on digital platforms is prohibited.
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