Kamala Harris faces historic challenge as incumbent vice presidential candidate: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk. This evening newsletter brings you the latest reporting and analysis from campaigns, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News politics team.

In today’s edition, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki unpacks the historic challenges facing Kamala Harris as she runs for president as the sitting vice president. Plus, we explore why Michelle Obama hasn’t participated in Harris’ campaign since the summer convention, and Hakeem Jeffries’ vision for Democrats taking back the House majority.

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Harris faces the historic challenge of running as a sitting vice president.

Written by Steve Kornacki

Kamala Harris is the third presidential candidate in the past half century to run as the incumbent vice president. And, as our latest NBC News poll highlights, the unpopularity of the administration she serves creates unique challenges for her.

Joe Biden’s approval rating for the presidency is 43%, which has remained about the same throughout his term. That was low enough this year for Biden to trail Donald Trump, prompting Democratic leaders to push him aside in favor of Harris.

Negative attitudes toward Biden go far beyond questions about his age or acumen. In our poll, only 25% of voters said the administration’s policies were helping families, compared to 45% who said they were hurting families. (By contrast, 44% of voters said that Trump’s policies as president helped their families in retrospect.)

The NBC News poll also shows that public dissatisfaction with President Biden is shaping views of Harris. In our poll, more respondents expressed concern that she would maintain Biden’s policies than that Trump would re-implement his own previous ones.

Because of the headwinds, Ms. Harris’ task is very different from that of the past two sitting vice presidents who ran alone. According to an NBC News poll at the time, Al Gore in 2000 and George H.W. 60% and Ronald Reagan 59%.

Continuity was a central theme of President Bush’s 1988 bid. “After two great terms, there will be a switch,” he said in his acceptance speech at that year’s party convention. “But if you have to change horses mid-way, wouldn’t it make sense to change to a horse that’s going the same way?”Reagan himself was active in the campaign, and Bush had a strong influence on Michael Dukakis. It broke easily.

Mr. Gore faced a dilemma with Mr. Clinton, whose second term was dominated in large part by the revelation of his alleged affair with a White House intern and the impeachment scandal that ensued. It severely damaged Clinton’s personal image. An ABC News poll conducted a few weeks before the 2000 election found that only 33% of people viewed Clinton favorably. But the economy was strong, there was widespread satisfaction with the state of the country, and Clinton’s policies were popular.

Whether Mr. Gore would put Mr. Clinton in a key campaign role became its own mini-drama that fall. Ultimately, Mr. Gore chose to distance himself publicly from Ms. Clinton herself, hoping that voters would associate Ms. Clinton with policies they favored rather than someone they were wary of. did. Whether Mr. Gore’s calculations were wrong remains a matter of debate.

If we look a little further back in history, we can better understand Harris’ predicament. In 1968, after Johnson withdrew from the presidential race due to his unpopularity due to the Vietnam War, Vice President Hubert Humphrey took his place. Mr. Humphrey had fallen far behind Republican Richard Nixon after securing the nomination of a divided Democratic Party, but he bitterly broke with Mr. Johnson over the war in early October. Humphrey quickly gained momentum and closed the gap, but he was still just a hair short on Election Day.

But no issue is more central to this campaign than Vietnam in 1968. So even if Ms. Harris and her team have an instinct to break away from Mr. Biden in the final weeks, it’s less clear where they’ll do it or whether they’ll get any meaningful pushback. And looking at her responses to recent questions, it’s not clear whether Harris even wants to try.

Michelle Obama has yet to participate in the campaign despite calling for ‘something to be done’ for Harris

Written by Monica Alba, Carol E. Lee, Kristen Welker

Barack Obama started supporting Kamala Harris. Bill Clinton is holding a series of campaign events for her in battleground states.

But the Democratic superstar, many of whom are hoping to support Harris, has so far not participated in the campaign.

With 21 days left until the election, Michelle Obama is working behind the scenes to boost turnout in key battleground states, but no formal appearances have been scheduled for Harris since the Democratic National Convention. . The former first lady has expressed new concerns about national security following two assassination attempts by former President Donald Trump, two people familiar with the matter said.

Both Harris and Trump have faced unprecedented levels of security following two apparent attempts on Trump’s life this year. Measures such as extra Secret Service personnel and bulletproof glass are now commonplace in election campaigns.

“Following two assassination attempts on former President Trump, all of the staffs of past presidents and first ladies have come to grips with a new reality, and so has the Secret Service,” a person familiar with the matter said. “This is a wake-up call for everyone.” Strengthen security efforts “in light of new realities.”

Her low profile is accentuated after her fiery speech at the Democratic National Convention in August. So she implored party members not to be complacent with the election, and instead repeatedly urged voters to “do something!”

Michelle Obama plans to add more Harris campaign events to her schedule as Election Day approaches, but nothing has been finalized yet, according to five people familiar with the plans. She is expected to play a role in the Democratic campaign’s “closing argument,” according to three of the people.

“She will make her voice heard” before the Nov. 5 voting deadline, another source said.

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Hakeem Jeffries appeals for calm amid chaos in House race

Written by Ali Vitali and Kyle Stewart

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — The view of Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York is that House Democrats don’t have a majority in this Congress, but they’ve been governing as if they do.

“We’ve always been called upon to address this situation,” Jeffries said of his recent campaign, from averting a government shutdown to raising the nation’s debt ceiling to passing the annual National Defense Authorization Act. He spoke to NBC News in an exclusive interview while visiting the city. “Democrats have almost always provided the necessary support to get things done.”

Now, he hopes to put the gavel into government.

Mr. Jeffries hopes to regain the House majority with a twin message of “people over politics” and a promise to rein in House Republican chaos. If she succeeds, it would mark a new milestone for the party: electing the first Black speaker of the House, ending Nancy Pelosi’s historic speakership (she was the first woman elected to the top job) It turns out. But that would require Democrats to flip at least four House seats from red to blue while helping some of their most vulnerable districts.

Mr. Jeffries, along with other House Democratic leaders, is racking up the miles by crisscrossing the nation’s most battleground states, from New York to California.

Opinion polls show that the race for a majority in the House of Representatives remains a tight contest, as befits a Congress that has operated with slim (and sometimes barely) majorities for the past two years.

Mr. Jeffries has learned from the chaotic nature of this Congress. Seventeen votes over several days elected California Republican Kevin McCarthy as speaker, then removed him less than a year later as punishment for collaborating with Democrats to increase the national debt. I learned from what happened. limit.

Asked how he has guided his caucus through the turmoil, Jeffries said: “Calm was a deliberate decision.” “While we cannot control the nature of the extraordinary events we are forced to respond to time and time again, we can control how we respond.”

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ICYMI: Watch our exclusive interview with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana). In it, he details a path for House Republicans to protect and expand their majority.

That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.

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