The Juan Soto free agent frenzy is underway, with the 26-year-old outfielder being the focus of several conversations at the team’s general manager meeting in San Antonio.
The buzz is understandable, considering he’s the consensus No. 1 free agent and is already on track to become a Hall of Famer with one World Series ring and two appearances. Soto is the first star position player to become a free agent heading into his age-26 season since Bryce Harper and Manny Machado six years ago. And because of that, he thinks he will have a big impact on the team that signs him.
Soto batted .288 with 41 home runs (4th in MLB) for the Yankees last season, with an on-base percentage of .419 (2nd) and a slugging percentage of .569 (4th). He also ranked fourth in wins-by-replacement (WAR) with 8.1. The latter number is also important for bookmakers, given that Soto’s win total will fluctuate no matter which team he signs with.
“He’s the third most valuable position player in baseball behind Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge,” BetMGM trader Halvar Egeland told The Athletic. “He protects the rest of the lineup, throws a ton of pitches, and is always on base. He’s one of the few guys that sounds the alarm when he’s out of the lineup.”
Soto is one of the few players who can single-handedly change a team’s season win total and World Series odds. The amount will vary depending on the bookmaker, but Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, says Soto has “at most seven to eight wins over the season.” He said he believed it was worth it. Other oddsmakers thought his future team’s season win total would likely be capped at two or three games.
Sportsbooks have already released odds on Soto’s next destination, with DraftKings Sportsbook listing the Yankees as the current favorites at -145. The New York Mets (+180) and Los Angeles Dodgers (+1200) follow. DraftKings has 11 teams listed, but bettors can also bet on The Field at odds of 12-1. For comparison, BetMGM (only available in Ontario, Canada) has odds on the Yankees at -120, followed by the Mets at +150 and the Dodgers at +850.
“We opened the Yankees a little higher, about -220 favorites,” said Johnny Abello, DraftKings sportsbook director. “The Mets were at +380 and have gone down. Those are the two teams that are seeing the most action. They’re the team with the most bets and the most money, but right now. The biggest danger is The Field.”
Abello said he understands the logic of promoting field betting that includes both World Series teams starting in 2023. “Houston could be on the list,” he said. “Arizona could also be a candidate because a player like (Soto) could put Arizona over the top. The Texas Rangers are also a team we don’t have on our list.”
So how much can Soto help potential suitors? Oddsmakers have listed the young superstar in The Athletic’s Juan Soto free agent tier for World Series odds. Here’s how he sees him potentially impacting some of the top teams in the league and how much he’s worth in terms of win totals.
real candidate
Odds as of November 8th.
New York Yankees (-145)
The Yankees fell just short of making it to the World Series with the Dodgers this season, and it’s clear there’s still a gap between the two teams, meaning the Yankees can’t afford to lose Soto.
“He was happy there and probably very happy with the way he played there,” Abello said. “I think he wants to go back because he thinks they’re a contender. He won the World Series with Washington, but he’s still young and wants to win it every year. The question is, how much will they pay?
Egeland also mentioned how important he feels the Yanks keep Soto after losing in the World Series.
“There’s quite a visual gap between them and the Dodgers,” Egeland said. “If they lose him, looking forward, they’re probably still the best team in the AL, but they could go down to +800 to +950. If he gets back there, little by little, It will go up.”
New York Mets (+180)
After an unexpected run to the National League CS, the Mets decided to acquire free agent first baseman Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea, and several other pitchers. The deep-pocketed Mets are expected to spend this offseason, but could they lure Soto from the Bronx to Queens? That effort has already begun, as The Athletic reported Thursday that Mets owner Steve Cohen will fly to California to visit Soto.
“The Mets are an interesting team because even without Soto, they’re going to spend money this offseason,” Egeland said. “You’re +1,400 to win the World Series, maybe down to +1,200 if you get Soto, but that’s probably the limit. Even if they don’t get him, they’re already factoring in free agent signings. “I’m there”
Other oddsmakers thought the Mets’ move could be even more significant.
“I think that’s going to change things in the National League East,” Gable said. “If the Mets were to acquire a player like Soto, they would probably look at it as a favorite to win the National League East. I think that could change the balance of power within the division.”
Los Angeles Dodgers (+1200)
The Dodgers, the 2024 World Series winners, will be even better next season. That’s because Shohei Ohtani should be able to pitch again, not to mention several other starting pitchers who missed the postseason with injuries. They have some free agent decisions to make, but they have plenty of money to spend and probably have a lot of players who want to play there.
“The Dodgers don’t necessarily need him,” Gable noted. “But I think they’re going to be in the hunt. Will he add that many wins to the Dodgers’ season win total? Probably not.
“If they do that, I’ll just raise my hand. (They’re) currently +400, but they can’t get any shorter than +300. Superteams are often fired, but They’re the best possible super team. Their total win total with Soto would be around 99-100, but Soto would already be a better team (even if they didn’t get Soto).
MLB front office executives have already begun planning just one week into November.
What are each team’s brain trust goals? Which players are they interested in? @JimBowdenGM has the info ⤵️ https://t.co/n9f9YoxBTn pic.twitter.com/LlE3vooCEu
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) November 7, 2024
the others
Chicago Cubs (+1800)
Avello: “The Cubs certainly have a lot of money and had a successful year, but they can’t be in contention for a championship with one or two more players. It could be a mix of them. Soto I’m not sure if I’ll ever see him in a Cubs uniform.”
Gable noted that the addition of Soto will have a positive impact, increasing Chicago’s win total by 5.5 to 6 wins.
Toronto Blue Jays (+2000)
Gable: “I’m not going to rule out the Blue Jays either. They were aggressive with Ohtani, so I expect them to be aggressive with Soto. Adding him to Toronto. That could add 5.5 to 6 games to the Blue Jays’ total win total.
San Francisco Giants (+2000)
Gable: “Teams like the Giants, who were candidates for Judge and Harper, really want to be able to compete with the Padres and Dodgers. I expect them to be aggressive. ”
Gable went on to point out that Soto is worth 5.5 to 6 wins to San Francisco’s total wins.
(Juan Soto photo: Harry Howe/Getty Images)
