Undefeated JMU (4-0) heads out for its first conference game of the season, and the Dukes will face a ULM team that has exceeded expectations through four games. The Warhawks boast a decent defense and are 3-1, 1-0 in Sun Belt play.
Still, JMU is expected to win the road game, which kicks off at 7 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPNU. The betting odds favor the Dukes by a large margin in the game, mainly due to ULM’s below-average offense.
betting odds
ULM’s offense ranks 116th in ESPN’s offensive efficiency rankings, which is a legitimate concern. However, the Warhawks’ defense ranks 46th. They can defend pretty well, so it doesn’t seem very likely that JMU will drop more than 60 points. This week’s total will not exceed 50.
Spread: JMU -15.5 at DraftKings
Total: 48 points
Moneyline: JMU -650, ULM +470
JMU is 3-1 against the spread this fall and has covered every FBS game. The Dukes are a perfect 2-0 against the spread on the road, defeating seven-point favorite Charlotte 30-7 and 10-point underdog UNC 70-50.
Selection and prediction
I am taking JMU to cover 15.5 points. ULM should be proud of its 3-1 start, and while the Warhawks look decent on defense, they’ve had a terrible offense outside of Texas. And the Longhorns had just under 500 yards of offense and scored over 50 points.
ULM had strong performances against Jackson State, UAB, and Troy. UAB and Trojans rank 94th and 92nd, respectively, in ESPN’s Offensive Efficiency Index. JMU checks in at 64th place. Dukes is reasonably efficient, but also explosive.
The Dukes are averaging 15.34 yards per game, ninth-best in the nation. They also averaged 5.25 yards per rush, fourth-best in the Sun Belt. JMU’s ability to generate chunk plays could make this game hard to come by quickly.
Troy and UAB rank 111th and 99th nationally in points per game. JMU?The Dukes are 12th in scoring with 44 points per game. ULM’s defense looked strong against subpar competition, but can it withstand JMU’s explosive offense? UNC’s defense has been strong outside of the JMU loss, and against four other opponents. has been kept below 21 points. The Tar Heels simply didn’t have an answer for Alonza Barnett and the Dukes.
On the other side of the ball, ULM is averaging less than 250 yards per game. The Warhawks’ offense ranks in the bottom 10 in college football, with below-average blocking, inconsistent QB play and a lack of skill players that stand out compared to their Sun Belt peers.
JMU’s defense held its two Group 5 opponents to a combined 14 points. The Warhawks have struggled to move the ball consistently, which could lead to a lot of punts in this game. ULM ranks 112th nationally in third-down conversions, moving the chains just 32% of the time.
While ULM’s 3-1 record looks good on paper, there is a huge gap between these two programs. JMU looks like a complete G5 team on both sides of the ball, but ULM is rebuilding and still needs to grow offensively before being considered a threat in the Sun Belt West.
Even if this game ended in a lower total, a 31-10 victory for JMU would still cover a nearly six-point deficit.
Pick: JMU -15.5
Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications
