JMU football could make it to the College Football Playoff this season. As of mid-October, my money remains with Boise State, but negotiations with the Dukes are still ongoing.
While that’s great for the JMU program and its fans, it’s not the reason JMU joined the Sun Belt. JMU did not participate in the Sun Belt because of the 12-team College Football Playoff or bowl game.
The Dukes were in the Sun Belt for games like Saturday’s game against Georgia Southern. They joined for the regular season.
A fascinating regular season in the Sunbelt
In 2021, JMU’s final season at the FCS level, the Dukes played conference games against Maine, New Hampshire, Villanova, Richmond, Delaware, Elon, William & Mary and Towson. Compare that to this year’s schedule:
ULM Coastal Carolina Southern Georgia Southern Miss Georgia ODU App State Marshall
This is why JMU left CAA. JMU wanted meaningful regular season games against other schools with passionate fan bases and proud football programs.
The Dukes had a sold-out home game against Coastal Carolina Thursday night on ESPN2. Do you think JMU will sell out its Thursday conference games in 2021? The Dukes couldn’t even fill all of their Saturday home games in 2021. Approximately 21,000 fans attended the Dukes’ game against Elon on Oct. 30, 2021, and fewer than 17,000 attended the regular-season finale against Towson on Nov. 20. JMU went 10-1 that regular season.
But this season, the Dukes are poised to sell out every home game. Going to JMU home games is becoming less of a “do” and more of a “to do,” and student attendance and interest are skyrocketing.
It helps that JMU is 5-1 and on the fringe of the CFP conversation, but regional matchups against good opponents make the Sun Belt ideal for the Dukes and their fans. Instead of playing Stony Brook or Maine State (schools with an obscure football history) in October, the Dukes will visit Statesboro on Saturday, a program with six FCS national titles and six bowl appearances at the FBS level. I’m planning to play. Eagles head coach Clay Helton won the Rose Bowl with USC.
Saturday’s contest is an important conference game against a program where results also matter. The Eagles scheduled this season like a team that wants to make a national splash, playing both Boise State and Ole Miss in non-conference games. Georgia Southern lost both games but held a fourth-quarter lead against the Broncos, who are ranked No. 15 in the latest AP Top 25. The Eagles have a perfect 4-0 record in all other games, including wins over Nevada (fresh off wins over Nevada) and Marshall.
Georgia Southern is a full-fledged Group of Five program, along with App State, Coastal Carolina and Marshall. Playing them in October for position in the Sun Belt East was exactly the type of game JMU administrators wanted the Dukes to play when they moved to the FBS.
Sunbelt East title game?
Saturday’s game will be streamed on ESPN+ rather than nationally, but that doesn’t really matter. Even with minimal national attention, this matchup is significant for the teams and fans involved. JMU and Georgia Southern are both looking to win what ESPN’s SP+ considers the best conference in the Group of Five.
The winner of Saturday’s game will be the favorite to win the East Division. This matchup has a Sun Belt East Championship feel to it.
For JMU, the win moves the Dukes to 2-1 in the conference with wins in head-to-head games against Georgia Southern and Coastal Carolina. The Dukes’ three weeks after the game against Georgia Southern include a home game against Southern Miss, a bye week and a home game against Georgia State. If JMU wins Saturday, the Dukes could easily fall to 4-1 in the conference entering mid-November. Especially if they can win the head-to-head games against Coastal and Georgia Southern, and finish with 6 wins and 2 losses with 2 wins and 1 loss in the last 3 league games, that will be enough to win the division.
But a loss to Georgia Southern would spell disaster for the Dukes’ dreams of clinching the East. Not only will JMU fall to 1-2 in league play, but Georgia Southern will also win a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Dukes at 3-0. For JMU to finish ahead of the Eagles in the league standings, Georgia Southern would need to win and lose three of their last five games. That’s unlikely.
Saturday’s winner is in prime position to represent the East in the Sun Belt title game on Dec. 7.
Dreams of the College Football Playoff are fun, but that’s not why JMU moved from the FCS to the FBS. The Dukes moved up in the standings to have a better regular season against a serious football program with a similarly passionate fan base. The Dukes moved up in the standings with games like Saturday’s.
Don’t get caught up in the playoff scenario and forget to enjoy competing for the Sun Belt title.
Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications
