Existential and all about how European leaders will affect an unresolved US president to prepare answers to the obvious exclusion from consultations on the future of Ukraine to meet in Paris It occupy all European leaders that envelop them.
Finland President Alexander Stubb spoke at a security conference in Munich and provided Scandinavian advice. “We’re the first thing we do is have an ice bath because in these situations the Finns are cool, calm and collected. Then we go to the sauna and then we reflect. “Faced with what he described as a “dissonance” of head-ups and shocked diplomacy, he suggested, “We need to talk less and do more.”
Meanwhile, his Latvian counterpart, Edgars Rinkivicho, has acknowledged such a debate about European relations with the United States. He said he was worried that some of European culture might not be attractive to modern America. We are very process oriented and not results oriented. ”
Iceland’s new prime minister, Christol Frostadotil, urged Europe to try and calm things down. “There’s a lot of excitement and it’s not very clear what the US is saying and what it expects. Let’s make sure we’re not responding to the wrong thing,” she said. I said that. “We can’t do it without the Americans. They throw things a bit into the air, but it’s our responsibility to not catch them, defeat them, keep them in the air.”
It’s easier than I say. When US vice president JD Vance visits the Dachau concentration camp and conveys the message that Germany approves alternative Fool Germanland before going to the poll, most Germans say America is really listening mode It’s difficult to think that is, and the authorities personally feel at ease.
The European Breitbart style portraits with the presence of Kommissars, dissidents, election equipment and censorship seemed to be misled by the audience’s security facilities. It was that you were you to be that German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius ripped his response – well, it was unacceptable.
In fact, the consensus that emerged from Munich and the days before it was a much more destructive and chaotic force that Trump 2.0 had to do with the worst fears of British, European and Middle Eastern diplomats. Sudden decisions on content in foreign policy follow executive orders one after another. Former M16 head Sir Alex Young claimed that Trump had guided the amoral world order without rules, where the only important commodity is raw power. “We have moved from the world of rules and multilateral institutions to strong people who trade over the heads of weaker countries,” he said. “This is our new world. This is the world of Donald Trump. The important psychological pivot we have to do is for that world. We are no longer operating in the world of systems. But it’s a world of incentives.”
However, Munich showed that there are two fundamental points of European discrepancy – whether the rupture with the US is reversible, and ultimately Vladimir Putin, who was hoping to have been his own 24 Apart from providing time rolling news, it’s just as enthralling Europe as it identifies what Trump wants. service. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was not so wrong, saying that Putin’s shadow was in every conversation in Munich. “Now seems like Vladimir Putin is Vladimir Putin,” he joked.
One idea in the US, clarified by Stubb, argues that Trump will notice if the EU ultimately does what it had promised for a long time and boosts defense spending. “We need to take more responsibility, hike defence spending and think about ways Europe adds value to the US,” he said.
Meanwhile, Natalie Tocco, head of Italian think tank IAI, questioned whether something deeper is ongoing between Europe and the US. “One interpretation of what’s happened in the last few days is that this US administration may not like us very much, and if we act by spending more on defense, then I would say. somehow we can rekindle US interest and perhaps even our love for Europe, including Ukraine. That’s the best case scenario,” she said.
“But we shouldn’t think of a scenario there. There’s absolutely nothing we can do to rekindle that love, affection and interest.”
Although Germany’s next prime minister after this month’s election, Friedrich Merz, did not go all the way to TOCCI, Vance’s speech spread the point of questioning between Europe and the US. “The differences between the US and Europe take on a whole new level of quality,” he told supporters each week.
“Now it’s about the fundamental understanding of democracy and an open society. Now it’s about the fundamental consensus so far regarding the separation of court independence and power and the actual threat to our freedom. ”
German Deputy Prime Minister Greene, Robert Habeck, also felt that something fundamental had changed. The US government “had a dictatorial side, rhetorically and politically,” he said. During the weekend in Munich, “Western values ended here.” He added: This is an authoritarian revolution. ”
But for most Europeans it is best to see if a loveless marriage can be saved. The alternative to court separation, let alone a complete divorce, is too scary to ponder. Europe is not ready to be alone without the US nuclear umbrella. Thus, the lost focus of anxiety is to instead significantly boost European defence spending. This is because it could ultimately make Europe more independent from the US, but it could convince Trump not to leave Europe and Ukraine safe. At lurch.
In a speech to the Munich Conference, current German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz predicted that future prime ministers would exempt defense and security spending from the debt brakes set out in the German constitution. “What if the war in the middle of Europe wasn’t an emergency,” he wondered what would happen.
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Similarly, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has promised that President Trump will offer a bold new approach to defence spending “compared to mountain movement.” The rise in EU defence spending, which increased from 20 billion euros (£167 billion) before the start of the Ukrainian War to 320 billion euros last year, needs to be accelerated, not only continues. When EU spending increases from 2% to 3% of GDP, hundreds of billions of investments will be unlocked. Transformation can be achieved by activating escape clauses for investments, a way to rule out most defensive spending from EU debt regulations.
But the promise to increase defense spending within a year does not address the demands of US authorities who say they are working on Trump’s time here and now. Trump is trying to push Ukraine into Europe whether it has the resources to provide reliable security assurances. “It’s difficult to find a European SUI Generis model, as what Europeans can offer ad hoc doesn’t provide reliable protection.” This type of EU deployment can only be achieved by relying on the powers already included in the NATO Defense Program and NATO’s “strategic enablers.”
The EU has yet to perform such robust operations on this scale. Without US participation, such a mission cannot be trusted. What is needed to stop the country would be “the ideal accidental strength of the west of about 150,000 soldiers.” The Major concludes: “A “bluffing and prayer” approach that uses a small number of troops and is essentially negligent by Russia, and is based on the hope that it will increase the likelihood of war in Europe. ”
It makes you more calm. She continues: “Based on the strength of the Russian troops deployed in Ukraine (approximately 600,000-700,000), taking into account the Ukrainian army (over 100 brigades), additional western accidental strength required. The forces will be about 150,000 soldiers. These forces are on permanent standby, so they must be rotated. This effectively triples the requirements for force.” In the context, anything Kiel Starmer does from a British military perspective must be enormous.
It may still require US cooperation, unresolved questions. The Major wrote: “Because of the combined functions required for such efforts, there is no possibility of missions that do not have complete support from the US. The capabilities of the US in areas of air patrol, aviation and missile defense, and in general (commands) and control remains an important capability and essential prerequisite for the deployment of alliance forces. In most cases, if not all, US operations have a large Ukraine footprint. It could have been carried out remotely without needing it, but the presence of the US military will significantly strengthen the deterrent message.”
The assumed mission is not a frontline ceasefire enforcement role, but a French counter that is one of the security against the battlefield horizon. However, the Major warns: “Providing a tripwire unit with too few troops, or without reinforcement, would be a bluff that could be invited to Russia to test the water. There’s little that NATO could do about it.”
But that leads to the second of European concerns – the true intentions of President Putin. Many Europeans viewed Russia’s attacks on Ukraine as a war of colonial attacks, and are clearly part of a revived Russian imperialism. After he swallows the four perseverants of Ukraine, he may take two years off, but he will come back for more.
Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorsky argues that US credibility is at the boundaries of how this war will end. The Ministry of Rebellion and it will have direct consequences for the US’s grand strategy, the US alliance system, and perhaps Taiwan’s future. ”
So what should we do? Sikorksi had an ingenious solution. “We Europeans control the Nobel Peace Prize. If you want to win it, peace must be fair.”
