WSeven battleground states are almost certain to decide the race, with recent election polls showing a dead heat or a narrow victory for either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris within the statistical margin of error.
Analysts are looking at voters in battleground states as polling companies scramble to make sense of these results, amid questions about their credibility following negative publicity surrounding their support for Trump in 2016 and 2020. We take a more granular approach to interpretation and focus on a small number of counties in these battleground states. region.
They are often called lead counties. This effectively means counties that could tip the scales in determining the outcome of battleground states.
From veteran election observers to Wall Street financiers, here are the counties that analysts are watching:
Maricopa County, Arizona
In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump in Arizona by just 10,000 votes. Voters in Maricopa County, which includes the Phoenix metropolitan area, supported Biden’s victory.
Four years ago, Maricopa accounted for more than 60% of Arizona’s ballots. Biden won Maricopa by 45,000 votes, with 50.3% of eligible voters voting for him, highlighting the importance of the county. The Associated Press explained the importance of this, saying, “In states where voters are overwhelmingly concentrated in a single county, even a narrow victory can make a big difference to the statewide numbers.” .
Also worth pointing out: According to U.S. News & World Report, Maricopa is home to most of the demographics that both sides have been aggressively appealing to, including centrist suburban Republicans, Latino voters, and older adults. Included.
Miami-Dade County, Florida
The Sunshine State has moved sharply to the right in recent election cycles. Trump has an almost double-digit advantage over Harris. Once a purple battleground state, Florida is now deep red.
Analysts are focusing on Miami-Dade County, which includes Miami and many surrounding communities. The county has long been a Democratic stronghold, with Hillary Clinton winning by a 30-point margin in 2016, but it has been on the rise since then.
According to Reuters, Biden beat Trump by 7 points in 2020. But the state’s most populous county is expected to release results “relatively soon” after polls close at 7 p.m.
Some analysts believe Miami-Dade may be a predictor of Harris’ overall performance. The news organization reported that a decline in her performance, especially among Latinos, could bode badly for her overall.
Latest: President Trump wins Miami-Dade
metro atlanta county georgia
The Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area is considered by nearly all analysts to be crucial in determining this swing state. Some focus on Forsyth County, 60 miles from Atlanta, as the deciding county, while others argue that a conglomerate of suburban and suburban counties will decide the race.
In addition to Forsyth County, analysts point to Cobb, Gwinnett and DeKalb counties as potentially decisive counties. Of course, Fulton County, which includes Atlanta, is seen as key.
NBC election expert Steve Kornacki pointed out on a recent episode of Pod Save America that nine counties he called the “blue blob” accounted for more than 40% of Georgia’s votes. . The region “gets bluer and bluer with every election.”
Kornacki said the race could indicate whether the economy is expanding.
“There’s one county in that area that’s moving dramatically toward Democrats that we just missed last time, Fayette County,” he said. “If Democrats are flipping it this time and expanding that chunk, I think that’s a sign, because you’re talking about suburban enthusiasm.”
Saginaw County, Michigan
Saginaw County, located in Michigan’s Great Lakes Bay region, is considered the preeminent swing county in the most definitive swing state. There are multiple reasons for this, including Saginaw’s voting record.
Barack Obama won Saginaw in 2008 and 2012. In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by just over 1,000 votes. In 2020, the margin narrowed further, with Biden winning by just 303 votes.
But Biden’s 2020 victory in Saginaw was complicated by Trump’s actual increase in votes in the county. His loss was also due to Democrats who did not vote in 2016 but decided to oust Trump in 2020.
Harris may need a similar turnout in Saginaw to win. The county’s results may reflect national trends, as voters’ concerns echo those in other important elections.
Clark County, Nevada
In the 2020 Nevada presidential election, Mr. Biden defeated Mr. Trump by just 3 points. Approximately 50% of Nevada’s population lives in Clark County, where Las Vegas is located.
If Trump wants to win Nevada, he needs to steal Democratic votes from Clark County, Reuters explains. Observers are also keeping an eye on Washoe County. It is the second largest population center in Nevada, including the city of Reno.
As in Las Vegas, Trump will need to chip away at Democratic support in the Reno area. As evidence of the tensions surrounding Washoe, observers from both sides of the aisle are closely monitoring the tally following recent controversy over voting there.
Republican county commissioners recently voted against certifying the results of this year’s primary, prompting legal action before changing course. Meanwhile, the Election Bureau is responding to a flood of questions and requests for information in an effort to allay public anxiety about the election.
Democrats have won every presidential election in Nevada since 2008, but economic stressors such as rising prices and a decline in affordable housing have raised questions about the tendencies of working-class voters. There is.
Mecklenburg County, North Carolina
Republicans have won every presidential election in North Carolina since Obama ran for president in 2008. Reuters points out that North Carolina has turned into a battleground state this year due to tight polling.
Mecklenberg County, which includes Charlotte, is strongly Democratic. Analysts are also keeping an eye on neighboring Cabarrus County, where Trump defeated Biden in 2020, but his lead has shrunk by 10 points since 2016, Reuters noted.
Wake County, which includes the highly educated city of Raleigh, is also attracting attention. The above-average-income county was once heavily Republican, but since 2008 it has “increased its overall vote share” in favor of Democratic presidential candidates, according to U.S. News & World Report. I am doing it.
Erie County, Pennsylvania
Erie County, which includes the city of Erie, is said to be a “Leader Region in a Leading State.” According to U.S. News, “No county in Pennsylvania, and perhaps the nation, swings as consistently as Erie County.”
In fact, Trump won the working-class county in 2016, followed by Biden’s narrow victory there in 2020. Some analysts are also keeping an eye on Lackawanna County.
Biden’s birthplace, Scranton, Pennsylvania, is in this county. Unlike Erie County, Lackawanna County has recently become more Republican. If Trump does well in Lackawanna, it could lead to broader success for him across this important state.
Latest: Trump wins Erie County
Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage
This article was amended on November 5, 2024 to correct the spelling of Ellie in the map.
