JERUSALEM (AP) — The specter of all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah seems closer than ever after the Israeli defense minister announced a “new phase” of hostilities and a suspected Israeli attack caused electronic devices to explode in Lebanon.
Hopes for a diplomatic solution to the conflict appear to be fading fast as Israel has signaled its desire to change the status quo in northern Lebanon. Israel has been exchanging cross-border artillery fire with Lebanese militant group Hezbollah since the group launched attacks on October 8, a day after Hamas launched its first artillery attack of the war.
Israel has moved heavy combat forces to its northern border in recent days, officials have become more vocal and the country’s security minister has made the return of tens of thousands of displaced people to their homes in northern Israel an official war objective.
Look at how Israel is preparing for war with Lebanon.
Gaza sends troops to northern border
Daily fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has flared up multiple times, but the bitter rivalry between the two countries has been careful to avoid all-out war.
That seems to be changing, especially since the advent of devices such as pagers and walkie-talkies. Explosions occurred in Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday. At least 20 people were killed and thousands wounded in a sophisticated attack that Hezbollah blamed on Israel.
“You can’t do something like that, attack thousands of people and think war isn’t coming,” said retired Israeli Brigadier General Amir Avibi, who heads the Israel Defense and Security Forum, a hardline group of former military commanders. “Why didn’t they do it for 11 months? Because they weren’t ready for war yet. What’s happening now? Israel is ready for war.”
As fighting in Gaza has slowed, Israel has been beefing up its forces along its border with Lebanon, with the arrival this week of a powerful army division that has taken part in some of Gaza’s fiercest fighting.
The 98th Division is expected to include several thousand soldiers, including airborne infantry, artillery and elite special forces trained specifically to operate behind enemy lines. The deployment was confirmed by the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss troop movements.
The division played a key role in Gaza, spearheading the army’s operations. The southern city of Khan Yunisa Hamas stronghold. The attack has caused extensive damage, forcing thousands of Palestinians to flee and killing numerous civilians, as well as damaging Hamas fighters and tunnels. Israel claims that Hamas is endangering civilians by hiding in residential areas.
The military also said it conducted a series of training exercises along the border this week.
“The mission is clear,” said Maj. Gen. Ori Godin, commander of Israel’s Northern Command. “We are determined to change our security reality as quickly as possible.”
A “new phase” of the war
The military move has been accompanied by a sharp exchange of words from Israeli leaders, who say they have reached the end of their patience.
Defense Minister Yoav Galant said Wednesday night: A “new dimension” of war As Israel shifts its focus to Hezbollah, “the center of gravity is shifting to the north by diverting resources and forces,” he said.
He spoke a day after the Israeli cabinet allowed displaced people in northern Israel to return to their homes. The official aims of the warThe move is largely symbolic — Israeli leaders have previously pledged to return these residents — but the increased importance of the goal signals a more hardline stance.
“We will allow residents of the north to return safely to their homes,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on Wednesday after meeting with senior security officials.
Netanyahu dispatched a top U.S. envoy to the region this week in an attempt to ease tensions, and delivered an equally tough message.
An official with knowledge of the clashes told The Associated Press that Special Envoy Amos Hochstein told Netanyahu that escalating the conflict with Hezbollah would not help the return of displaced Israelis.
“Residents will not be able to return unless there is a fundamental change in the security situation in the north,” Netanyahu told Hochstein in a statement from his office. The statement said Netanyahu “appreciated and respected” the U.S. assistance, but Israel would “do what is necessary to protect its security.”
Is war inevitable?
Israeli media reported on Wednesday that the government had not yet decided whether to launch a major offensive in Lebanon.
Much will likely depend on the response from Hezbollah, whose leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is due to give a major speech on Thursday.
However, Israeli public opinion appears to favor tougher measures against Hezbollah.
A late August poll by the Jerusalem think tank, the Israel Democracy Institute, found that 67 percent of Jewish respondents believe Israel should step up its response to Hezbollah, including 46 percent who think Israel should launch an all-out offensive to attack Lebanese infrastructure and 21 percent who want an increased response that avoids attacking Hezbollah infrastructure.
“There is a lot of pressure from society to go to war and win,” said Abibi, the retired general. “Unless Hezbollah says tomorrow morning, ‘OK, we got the message and we’re leaving southern Lebanon,’ war is imminent.”
Such a war would almost certainly be devastating for both sides.
Already since October 8, Israeli attacks have killed more than 500 people in Lebanon, mostly Hezbollah and other militant groups, but also over 100 civilians. In northern Israel, attacks from Lebanon have killed at least 23 soldiers and 26 civilians.
Israel inflicted devastating damage on Lebanon in a month-long war with Hezbollah that ended in a stalemate in 2006. Israeli leaders have warned of tougher action this time, vowing to replicate the destruction they saw in Gaza in Lebanon.
But Hezbollah has also strengthened its capabilities since 2006. It now possesses an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, some of which are believed to have guidance systems that allow it to threaten high-value Israeli targets, and it has also developed an increasingly sophisticated drone fleet.
Hezbollah has the capacity to attack all of Israel, potentially paralyzing life there and forcing hundreds of thousands of Israelis to flee.
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Associated Press writer Natalie Meltzer in Jerusalem contributed to this report.