Iowa pollster Ann Selzer fights for her name and explains why police came to her home

Des Moines, Iowa (Gray Media Iowa State Capitol) – In November, Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer became the target of accusations, criticism, and allegations. The Iowa Poll, which she has conducted for the Des Moines Register since 1997, has previously won national praise for its accuracy.

One analysis by Nate Silver gave her an “A+” rating in the poll. No other U.S. polling firm (Selzer & Co.) had more accurate rankings than Selzer.

However, her poll numbers were far off in 2024.

Over the weekend before Election Day 2024, Iowa polls showed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris holding a 3-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in the state. However, on Election Day, Trump won by 13 points. Big mistake for seltzer.

Selzer said she was confident in her methodology, one she has used for years. But that didn’t work this year. Critics on social media claimed something malicious. Was Mr. Selzer trying to give Democrats pre-election enthusiasm with the poll results? Was she trying to stop Trump? Was she paid to help Democrats and hurt Republicans, as some have claimed?

No, to all these questions, she responded to Gray Media of Iowa, characterizing all these accusations as baseless, baseless and “more than a nuisance.”

Selzer said nothing has changed in 2024 from the general election polls that showed Trump winning in 2016 and 2020. In fact, her final Iowa polls for both races in the state matched the final election totals almost exactly. .

Cook Political Report analyst Matthew Klein looked at Selzer’s results in Iowa polls since 2012, using Selzer’s final Iowa poll numbers and subsequent election results. The results accurately showed that Trump would easily win in 2016 and 2020.

Selzer’s final pre-election poll predicted Republican Chuck Grassley would have similar success in his 2022 Senate race. Her poll also shows that 2012 presidential candidate Barack Obama (D) will carry the state again.

Election results were outside Selzer’s margin of error in Klein’s sample, as polls showed Democrat Fred Hubbell ahead of Republican Kim Reynolds in the gubernatorial race. It was only in 2018. Reynolds won.

Selzer announced that he would retire from voting after the 2024 election, and said he notified the Des Moines Registrar in 2023 that the 2024 election would be his last.

Read her announcement here.

Des Moines Register Editor-in-Chief Carol Hunter confirmed Selzer’s agreement to retire from the polls. She also described a review of what went wrong with the study.

Please read here.

President-elect Donald Trump called for an investigation into Selzer’s Iowa poll.

Iowa Republican Jeff Kaufman posted this message on X/Twitter on election night after Selzer’s final poll showed Harris leading Trump by 3 points. .

Selzer told Gray Media Iowa that West Des Moines Police came to her to inform her about the online chatter. She did not disclose any conversations with law enforcement about “direct threats to her life,” but said she took additional safety precautions after being warned.

Gray Media of Iowa contacted West Des Moines Police. The spokesperson said there was no “active investigation” into the specific threat against Selzer, could not confirm or deny that the officer issued a safety warning to Selzer, and that the officer did not visit Selzer. He said that he would not be allowed to divulge what he had discussed with her if the incident occurred.

In the video below, Selzer describes the conversation he had with police. She also explained why she said she would not risk the company’s financial future by running an intentionally inaccurate poll.

Much of her company’s business over the years has been with private companies and organizations, and she said the accuracy of her polling skills is why she continues to retain clients over the years.