The stock market has soared to record highs since Kamala Harris entered the presidential race in July. Will the good vibes continue if she wins the White House? The answer may vary from field to field.
Fortune surveyed analysts and academics to find out which stocks could rise with a Harris victory, and which companies could see their stock prices fall. Here are some companies to keep in mind.
what to buy
Harris and former President Donald Trump differ greatly on climate and energy policy. As vice president, Harris cast the tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Control Act. Joe Biden’s signature climate bill passed without Republican support, Trump promised to eliminate tax credits and allowed what he called the “new green fraud” .
It’s unclear whether Trump will be able to follow through on these campaign promises, but a Harris victory is likely to be pretty good news for renewable energy. Shares of First Solar, the largest U.S. solar panel manufacturer, have fallen 16% this month amid industry volatility and election uncertainty. Harris’ victory could reward investors who bought the stock on the spur of the moment.
The Harris administration could also help the electric car maker, which is trying to grab a spot at Elon Musk’s Tesla, especially since the Tesla CEO is fully supportive of Donald Trump. There is a possibility that it will happen. Mr. Musk’s political activities, including public spat with California officials, have given companies like Rivian an opportunity to take aim at disgruntled progressive customers. While Mr. Musk appears to be betting Tesla’s future on self-driving, government subsidies and tax credits are critical to the chances of companies like Rivian competing.
Offshore wind power will also benefit from Harris’ victory. Spanish energy giant Iberdrola has invested more than $13 billion in the US and UK in the past 12 months, with profits increasing 150% in the first nine months of this year. Avangrid, the company’s U.S. subsidiary, trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of just over 12 times, according to S&P Global.
Then there’s the less obvious choice. Preliminary analysis by Georgetown University’s Michael Bailey shows that the stock prices of defense contractors such as Honeywell, for example, are moving somewhat in tandem with the likelihood of a Harris victory. This may reflect that Harris is probably a safer bet to continue U.S. support for Ukraine against Russian aggression.
Finally, with Harris’ victory, major importers may breathe a sigh of relief. President Trump’s proposal to impose tariffs of at least 10% worldwide and a 60% tax on all Chinese goods is not good news for big retailers like Target, so Harris’ victory means the company The concerns currently factored into the company’s stock price may be dispelled.
SEE ALSO: 5 stocks to buy and 5 stocks to sell if Trump wins
what to sell
Some analysts are highly skeptical of trading based on who will occupy the Oval Office. Among them is Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, who explains how overall tax policy, including corporate tax rates, impacts the overall market. We are focusing more on the potential for impact.
But even he said the prospect of deregulation puts finance at the heart of the so-called “Trump deal.” JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs are two stocks that could be flooded with investors if Mr. Trump wins, but could prompt selling if Mr. Harris wins.
But the stocks most affected by climate policy may be the ones most worthy of attention. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said Harris is clearly the better option when it comes to renewable energy, but companies in sectors such as offshore oil, coal and foreign solar will be the biggest losers. He said it is possible.
So if Harris occupies the White House, oil drilling company Schlumberger could be a stock to avoid, Stovall said. The same goes for Consol Energy, one of the major players in the coal industry, he added.
A Bank of America memo obtained by CNBC says the Harris administration may be friendlier to Big Tech than the Biden administration, but companies centered around the gig economy could be at risk. For example, if the vice president is promoted by a U.S. citizen, investors may want to rush out of Uber.
