How Trump’s threat has revived Canada’s liberal party

If you asked the Canadian a few months ago if they would win the next general election, most would have predicted a decisive victory for the Conservatives.

The results are not so sure now.

President Donald Trump’s threat to Canada led Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s liberals to surge in polls, reducing their double-digit lead, and conservative rivals have been steadily holding them since mid-2023.

The dramatic change in the country’s political landscape reflects how Trump’s tariffs and his repeated calls to make Canada a “51st state” have fundamentally changed the priorities of Canadian voters.

Trump’s rhetoric “pushed away all other issues” before taking office on January 20th, says Luc Turgeon, a professor of political science at the University of Ottawa.

He even managed to revive the once deeply unpopular Trudeau. Of course, the Prime Minister announced his resignation at the beginning of the year, so he will not be in power for too long.

On Sunday, his liberals declare the outcome of the leadership contest to decide who will take over the party that runs the volatile minority government. The new leader will make two immediate decisions: how to respond to Trump’s threats and when to call for a general election. The answer to the first dilemma certainly affects the second dilemma.

Who is running to replace Trudeau as the leader of the liberal party?

Federal elections must be held before October 20th, but will be called as early as this week.

Polls show that many Canadians are still at the top and want change. But what will that change look like – a complete shift towards liberal government under new leadership, or conservatives – is now speculating by everyone, says Greg Lyle, president of the Toronto-based innovative research group.

“Until now, it’s been a punk for conservatives,” he told the BBC.

That’s because the central right party led by Pierre Poilievre was effective in the message about issues that have occupied the Canadian spirit for the past few years: increased cost of living, affordability, crime, and the strained health system.

Poilievre has successfully linked these social issues with what Trudeau labeled “disastrous” policies, and has promised a return to “common sense politics.”

But the message is outdated with Trudeau’s resignation and Trump’s threat to Canada’s economic security and its sovereignty, Lyle said. His polls suggest that the majority of the nation is currently most afraid of Trump’s presidency and its impact on Canada.

Trump’s 25% tariff on all imports in Canada is all imports to the United States, suspended until April 2nd, and is devastating for the Canadian economy, sending three-quarters of all products to the United States. Authorities forecast an outcome of up to 1 million people, and if taxes on products persist, Canada could fall into a recession.

Trudeau left without doubt how seriously he was taking a threat when he told reporters this week that the reason for US tariffs – the flow of fentanyl across the border – was false and unfair.

“What he wants is to see a complete collapse of the Canadian economy, because it will make it easier to annex us,” the prime minister warned.

“In many ways, it’s all inclusive and fundamental to the survival of the country,” Professor Turgeon tells the BBC. Therefore, the best way to stand up to Canada will be a key issue in future elections.

Conservatives are still ahead in the polls, with the latest average suggesting that 40% of voters will support them. Meanwhile, the fate of liberals has revived, with support that has risen by just over 30% since January, up 10 points.

The Liberal Party sought to highlight similarities between the Conservative leader and the Republican president. In a leadership debate last week, the candidate called Poilierbre “a small version of Trump at home here,” and said he was trying to “imulate” the US president. Two liberal party attack ad juxtaposition clips using similar phrases such as “fake news” and “radical left.”

However, there is a clear difference between the two politicians in terms of style and substance. And Trump himself downplayed the similarities, and in a recent interview with a British magazine, Poilierbre told the audience that it was “not enough.”

Still, polls suggest a slip in conservative support. A recent poll by Angus Reed in the referendum shows that Canadians believe that Mark Carney, the top runner of liberal leadership, is better equipped to address Trump on tariff and trade issues than Polyebre.

Former central bankers in both Canada and England tout their experiences dealing with economic crises, including the 2008 financial crash and Brexit.

And a change in political mood forced conservatives to recalculate their message.

If the election is called soon, the campaign takes place the moment when Trump’s threat sparked intense patriotism among Canadians. Many boycott American goods at local grocery stores and cancel trips to the US.

Professor Turgeon says the “gathering around the flag” has become an important theme in Canadian politics.

Conservatives are moving away from the “Canada is Broken” slogan, and Lyle says there is a risk of being “anti-patriotic” and leading to “Canada First.”

Conservatives also redirected the attack on Carney. Before Trump’s tariffs, they ran an ad called “Justin” in an attempt to tie him to Trudeau. However, in recent weeks, conservatives have begun to dig into Carney’s loyalty to Canada.

Specifically, they question whether he plays a role in moving the headquarters of Canadian investment firm Brookfield Asset Management when he chairs it.

Carney responded that he left the company by the time a decision was made, but company documents reported by public broadcaster CBC show that Carney approved the move in October 2024, when he was still in Brookfield.

The move and the ambiguity of Carney’s involvement in it was criticized by the Canadian Editorial Board’s national newspaper, The Globe and Mail.

More broadly, the paper writes: “Every leader of party leadership must realize that Canada has been in a period of uncertainty over the years. The next prime minister needs to lead a country that doesn’t need to move forward but doesn’t want to go,” he said.

Given the uncertainty reverberating among Canadians, Lyle says that Carney’s ambiguity about loyalty to the country could still be damaging to him and the liberals.

Whenever an election comes, and whenever who wins, there’s one thing that’s certain. Trump will continue to influence Canadian politics just like he does in the United States.