How the Gaza war will reshape the Middle East: NPR

TEL AVIV, Israel — The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is now nearing an end, but much of the Middle East has been dramatically reshaped and the aftershocks continue to be felt.

When Hamas launched a surprise attack on southern Israel on the morning of October 7, 2023, it was operating under long-standing Middle Eastern rules. On one side was Israel, backed by the United States, and on the other side was Iran and its partners: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen.

Both sides believed they could inflict great damage on the other, which is why everyone was wary of a major confrontation.

Battles over the past 15 months have rewritten these rules. While Israel has dealt a powerful military blow to its rival, both Iran and its allies have suffered serious setbacks, with no clear path to recovery in sight.

Hamas and Hezbollah were cleansed of their leadership and signed separate cease-fires with Israel from weak positions. Syria’s longtime dictator Bashar al-Assad defected to Russia last month. Meanwhile, Iran, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who is 85 years old and in poor health, is trying to make sense of its rapidly changing Middle East.

A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas announced on Wednesday could end heavy fighting in the region and potentially prevent further major war, at least in the short term. But the past 15 months of fighting have created a number of hardships and made existing problems even more difficult to resolve.

Damage to Israel’s reputation

While Israel can claim major military successes, the devastation it has inflicted on Gaza has caused untold damage to Israel’s reputation. Gaza health officials say more than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in the region, more than half of them women and children.

The massacre has sparked widespread outrage in Arab countries, with anger spreading far beyond the region and into many Western countries. Israel relies heavily on the United States for military and political support, which will continue under President-elect Donald Trump. But Israel also needs European countries for political support and trade ties to limit its international isolation.

Before the war in Gaza, Israel was already facing widespread criticism over its coercive occupation of Palestinians. Israel now faces even more scrutiny over how it treats Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the occupied West Bank, where Jewish settlements are rapidly expanding.

Will Israel work with the international community to help rebuild Gaza and provide the Palestinians with a political path to statehood?

Or will Israel continue to oppress the Palestinians with the punitive measures that have characterized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s many years in office?

Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised to ensure security during his term. That promise was reneged on by Hamas attacks. Now that the Gaza war is clearly over, Israel will be in a stronger security position in the coming years. However, Israel is expected to face intense political pressure over its policies toward the Palestinians.

Iran’s strategy is broken

Iran’s strategy for decades has been to support a network of Arab partners with the aim of weakening Israel. This approach is currently in tatters.

Iranian proxies were overwhelmed in the battle with Israel. Iran itself suffered a setback last year in a missile exchange with Israel. Military analysts say Iran’s air defenses have been significantly weakened, making it vulnerable to future Israeli airstrikes.

Moreover, Iran’s fragile economy is boxed in by Western sanctions, making it unable to continue providing military aid like it has provided to its partners.

Iran will also have to deal with President Trump, who takes office on Monday. He imposed a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran during his first administration and is expected to pursue a hardline policy again.

In exchange for sanctions relief, Iran could be forced to make compromises, such as reducing or ending support for its proxies.

Of course, Iran could go in the opposite direction and pursue the use of nuclear weapons, seeing it as its best defense, a move that risks provoking a showdown with the United States and Israel.

Broken land urgently needed

Several parts of the Middle East were already in dire straits before October 7, 2023, and recent fighting only adds to the sense of hopelessness.

Much of Gaza has been reduced to rubble. Almost all of the country’s 2.2 million residents have been forced to evacuate multiple times and no longer have a home to return to. Israel has said it will no longer allow UNRWA, the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees, to operate in its territory.

While the crisis in Gaza is the most serious, Lebanon and Syria also face alarming challenges.

Lebanon has endured chronic political and economic hardship for years, and last fall’s Israeli military offensive devastated the country’s south. In a glimmer of hope, Lebanon’s parliament recently elected a president for the first time in more than two years.

President Assad’s defection to Russia last month ended Syria’s nearly 14-year civil war, but it will be a huge and long-term project to piece the shattered country back together. More than half of Syria’s population was forced to flee their homes during the war.

A ceasefire in Gaza would bring an end to 15 months of continuous chaos. The changes initiated will have an impact for years to come.