Donald Trump has vowed to launch the largest deportation operation in U.S. history on his first day in office, with one aide saying Monday that “President Trump placed his hand on a Bible and took the oath of office.” He said the execution would begin “in a moment.” .
But how big that operation is and how quickly it can be carried out will depend in part on whether the administration can clear a number of hurdles, immigration experts said. These include pushback from some cities and local law enforcement agencies, budget and staffing shortages in Immigration and Customs Enforcement, lawsuits from advocacy and civil rights groups, and the need to increase the number of deportations. This includes questions regarding cooperation between countries.
There are currently an estimated 11 million people in the United States without legal status.
“I don’t think it’s possible to deport all illegal immigrants,” Kathleen Bush-Joseph, a policy analyst with the Migration Policy Institute’s U.S. Immigration Policy Program, told NBC News.
The first Trump administration removed about 1.2 million illegal immigrants, according to data from the Department of Homeland Security. The Obama administration removed 2.9 million illegal immigrants in its first term and 1.9 million in its second term. This number may also include people who have been deported multiple times.
“The first Trump administration often fell short of these standards, in part because sanctuary policies and laws reduced cooperation with local and state law enforcement,” Bush-Joseph said. ” he said. “This time, many sheriffs and local law enforcement agencies are on the record saying they will or will not support a mass deportation plan.”
He said he would focus on a potential “widening gap between red and blue states and localities.”
Democratic city and state leaders across the country have already pledged to oppose President Trump’s plan and, in some cases, passed ordinances aimed at protecting illegal immigrants from his efforts to deport them. Never. Meanwhile, Texas is positioned to play a key role in President Trump’s immigration policies, flexing its unique law enforcement powers at the border as other conservative states pass anti-sanctuary policies.
Over the past decade, about 70% to 75% of arrests made by ICE in the interior of the United States were handed over from other law enforcement agencies, such as local, state or federal prisons, according to the Immigration Legal Resource Center.
“For President Trump’s policy to work, a lot of it may have to be coordinated with the states,” said Rick Hsu, a law professor at the University of North Carolina.
Trump administration officials say they intend to take action against local governments that resist his plan, and the president-elect is considering withholding federal police funding from law enforcement agencies that refuse to help with deportations. He said there was.
Trump pursued a similar strategy during his first term, but faced major legal hurdles. Su said the question of what the administration can legally force states and localities to do remains open.
If the courts rule in favor of President Trump’s ability to mobilize federal resources and force state and local governments to comply, “residents may start to oppose these things quite dramatically. ” he said.
As the second Trump administration unfolds, some areas may see efforts to maintain their sanctuary status in full, while others may face challenges for people with criminal records or national security threats. Andrea Flores said they may cooperate with cases deemed to be higher priority, such as those deemed to be. He is vice president of immigration policy and campaigns at FWD.us, which describes itself as a nonpartisan organization advocating for immigration reform.
“But cities will continue to be the first line of defense,” said Flores, an immigration policy adviser in the Biden and Obama administrations. “Cities have had to provide a patchwork of protections to their residents. body,” he said.
President Trump told NBC News last month that his administration would first focus on deporting criminals and then expand its operations.
The Trump administration’s ability to enact the plan at its desired pace and scale could also be hampered by legal action from civil rights and immigrant advocacy groups. Although the specific legal strategy will depend on what actions President Trump takes and whether there are potential civil rights issues, the American Civil Liberties Union says, “The moment President Trump takes the oath of office, We are ready to take action.”
ICE budget shortage
Another major potential hurdle is a $230 million ICE budget shortfall, even before the costs associated with mass deportations, two U.S. officials with knowledge of the numbers told NBC News exclusively in December. He spoke clearly.
“ICE is already operating at a deficit, and unless Congress provides significant additional funding for the enforcement side of the mass deportation program, it could take a really long time to strengthen the program,” Bush-Joseph said. said.
Spending negotiations will begin in January when Republicans control the White House and a majority in the Senate, as well as a majority in the House, but it remains unclear when and how Congress will agree on funding.
“The reality is that even when he made some tough statements, he didn’t dramatically increase deportations,” Su said of Trump’s first term. “Some of it was resources and some of it was funding.”
President Trump’s mass deportation policy could cost an estimated $88 billion or more, according to the American Immigration Council, an immigration research and advocacy group. President Trump previously told NBC News that “you can’t put a price on it” when it comes to mass deportation plans.
Tom Homan, Trump’s nominee for border czar, previously told NBC News that $86 billion would be a “great start” and said he wanted at least 100,000 detention beds. There are currently approximately 34,000 in the United States.
Outgoing ICE Director P.J. Lechleitner told NBC News earlier this month that the agency has nearly 8 million people on its non-custodial record, with one officer responding to more than 7,000 cases. spoke. According to a letter from ICE to Congress, as of September 2024, 435,719 of these individuals were found to have criminal records, including 13,099 with murder convictions and 15,811 criminal convictions. A person was convicted of sexual assault.
Rechleitner said ICE is “chronically underfunded” and needs more staff and resources.
He also said it would be impossible to increase the number of deportations with ICE’s current resources.
Cooperation from other countries
Bush-Joseph said President Trump “cannot deport everyone, but if Congress provides significant additional funding and allows anticipated restrictions to take effect, the administration could ramp up deportations during his term.” There is a possibility that it will.”
Flores and Bush-Joseph said another barrier to mass deportation is the need for diplomatic agreements with other countries, since not all unauthorized immigrants can be forcibly returned to their countries of origin.
“This is an absolutely critical component of this mass deportation plan,” Bush-Joseph said.
“The Biden administration has made a very concerted effort to negotiate with other countries to accept more of their nationals back,” she said. “This includes a historic agreement with Mexico to bring back third-country nationals in exchange for establishing legal pathways such as a humanitarian parole process.”
President Trump has threatened to use tariffs to force countries to return their citizens, and during his administration, she said, “It’s not clear what other countries would ask in return for accepting their nationals or third-country nationals.” said. .
He said most of those being deported are from Mexico and northern Central America, as those countries are accepting large numbers of their nationals back. However, in recent years there has been a significant increase in immigration from Venezuela and Cuba, and these countries are not accepting their nationals back.
Experts said there are several factors that could help President Trump’s plan to strengthen deportations, including quickly deporting more immigrants who enter the country illegally through expanded expedited removals.
Since 2004, the policy has allowed authorities to expedite deportation proceedings for undocumented immigrants caught within 160 miles of the U.S. land border and apprehended within 14 days of arrival.
The first Trump administration moved to extend the policy broadly to undocumented immigrants anywhere in the United States who cannot prove they have been in the country for more than two years.
This decision was blocked by the courts before it was finally allowed to take effect. Biden administration lawyers reversed the policy.
Noting that there are more than 3.5 million immigration cases pending, Bush-Joseph said he expects the Trump administration to once again expand expedited removals, thereby eliminating long backlogs and delays in immigration courts. This is because it will be avoided.”
Bush-Joseph said the conservative-dominated Supreme Court has also upheld the executive branch’s authority in immigration cases in recent years, and that recent precedent has limited its ability to litigate cases.
Even in the case of large-scale litigation, as the case moves through the legal system, courts must decide whether to block the policy or allow it to continue to be implemented.
