Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk. This evening newsletter brings you the latest reporting and analysis from campaigns, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News politics team.
In today’s issue, Senior Political Editor Mark Murray analyzes consolidated NBC News polling data that shows how important infrequent voters are to Donald Trump’s current level of support. Plus, we delve into some of the key dynamics shaping the final days of racing in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
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Trump’s support is increasing among people who vote infrequently. Will they show up?
Written by Mark Murray
A close presidential election will most likely come down to the following questions: Will the rare voters who support Donald Trump by double digits actually vote?
Vice President Kamala Harris wins by 6 points (51% to 45%) among voters who participated in both the 2020 and 2022 elections, according to a national poll compiled by NBC News in July, September, and October. He won by a margin of . And among voters who did not participate in 2020 but did participate in 2022, she holds a tiny share by a 9-point margin (52% to 43%).
These findings are not surprising, given that the Democratic Party’s midterm election results two years ago were better than expected.
But among those who vote infrequently, our combined poll shows that among those who only participated in 2020 and not 2022, Trump wins by 4 points (48% to 44%). ) is shown to be winning. And they have a 10-point lead (50% to 40%) over voters who did not participate in either 2020 or 2022.
This is all part of the recent realignment of American politics, with Democrats now outperforming in low-turnout elections and Republicans doing better (at least on paper) in high-turnout elections.
The challenge for Mr. Trump is to turn his support in the polls into votes.
Our combined polling shows that some voters who did not participate in either 2020 or 2022 are more interested in the next election than voters who voted in at least one of the past two elections. have been found to be low, raising questions about whether they will show results. Until 2024.
Meanwhile, NBC News recently observed two focus groups of voters who did not participate in the 2020 election but are planning to participate this time. They gave valid reasons for not voting four years ago. Work, family, COVID-19 and missing voter registration deadlines all got in the way.
Many, if not all, non-2020 voters also spoke out about why they supported Trump over Harris. Because they believe life was better when Trump was president than it is now.
When asked what life was like when President Trump was in the White House, respondents said “prosperous,” “steady,” “normal,” and “hopeful.”
now? Responses included “difficult,” “struggling,” “declining,” and “troubled.”
Focus groups found that these voters were leaning toward Mr. Trump. The billion-dollar question at stake in this election: Will they, and like the millions of other voters who did not vote in 2020, ultimately turn out and vote for Trump?
Check the play status on the “Blue Wall”
As readers of this newsletter are well aware, the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the presidential election. With just over a week until Election Day, here are some of the key dynamics that will shape the election landscape.
🧤Michigan: Alex Seitz-Wald and Henry J. Gomez say Kamala Harris’ gains in Michigan’s suburbs include Democratic bases including Arab Americans, black men, and younger voters in places like Dearborn and Detroit. wrote that it hopes to reverse some of its losses. Read more →
Henry also discusses how Republicans are pushing a message centered around civility and “relentless positive action” rather than Donald Trump as they seek to regain control of the Michigan Legislature. are also exploring. Read more →
🔑 Pennsylvania: Peter Nicholas looks back at the Harris campaign’s massive door-knocking operation in suburban Philadelphia. Interviews with 20 campaign aides, Democratic strategists, volunteers and elected officials show that Harris’ hopes in Pennsylvania rest on a ground campaign that they believe will dwarf what Trump has amassed. It suggests that. Read more →
🦡 Wisconsin: Matt Dixon reports that the Harris campaign is piling up support for Republicans in Wisconsin, which has emerged as the centerpiece of an effort to attract Trump-skeptical voters from across the aisle. . Read more →
🗞️ Today’s Top News
🔊 Turn up the volume: An NBC News analysis found that President Trump has made baseless claims about possible fraud by Democrats in the November election in 14 of his last 20 rallies. It turns out. By comparison, Trump mentioned Democrats trying to steal the 2024 election just five times in 20 rally speeches over the summer. Continue reading → ⚠️ Election Alert: U.S. intelligence agencies are targeting domestic extremists with grievances rooted in election-related conspiracy theories, including beliefs in widespread voter fraud and hostility toward perceived political opponents. identified as the most likely threat of violence in the upcoming election. Continue reading → 🗳️ Vote Watch: Ballot boxes in Portland, Oregon, and neighboring Vancouver, Washington, were set on fire early Monday, and authorities believe the incidents are connected. Continue reading → 🗣️ Closing arguments: President Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday was overshadowed by crude and racist remarks from multiple speakers, but the Harris campaign has already announced that it will be It’s captured in advertising. Continue reading → 🛑 Not in such a hurry: Philadelphia district attorney is suing Elon Musk and his super PAC to block $1 million in donations to registered voters. Continue reading → ☑️ How to read the early voting numbers: Weeks of early voting have already been completed in some areas, but it’s hard to read too much into the partisan divide over who has voted so far It’s dangerous. Because there is still time for that pattern to change. . Continue reading → 😴 Sleeper Races: Sahil Kapur breaks down nine Senate and House races that could be more competitive than expected on election night. Read more → Follow live updates from the campaign trail →
That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.
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