There was a moment during the presidential election when prediction markets broke out, when they proved to be more accurate than most polls.
So, with various cryptocurrencies soaring since Donald Trump won the election, perhaps prediction markets can accurately answer the question “How high will Bitcoin go?”
In the crypto-based polymarket where the so-called French whale made huge profits after the election, bettors have a variety of options for Bitcoin, which is currently trading at around $91,000.
For a contract on what the price of Bitcoin will be in November, there is a 72% chance that it will reach $95,000. The next most likely price is $105,000 at 23%, then $110,000 at 14%.
Another contract asking if Bitcoin will hit $90,000 on November 22nd has a probability of 60%, while another contract asking if Bitcoin will hit $100,000 in November. The probability is only 42%.
On the prediction market Calci, a contract asking how high Bitcoin will rise by 2026 has 52% odds of over $125,000 and 44% odds of over $150,000.
If prediction markets aren’t your thing and you prefer more traditional Wall Street analyst predictions, Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, is for you.
Among the forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, his predictions for the stock market in 2023 were found to be the most accurate.
As for Bitcoin, he said in March that it could reach $150,000 by the end of the year. Although that seems unlikely with only a month and a half left in the year, Lee told CNBC last week that there is still a chance of further gains in 2025 and 2026, and “six digits” by the end of the year. he said.
“Bitcoin has become more relevant since the halving, the regulatory overhang has probably decreased, and I think there is a lot of upside from here,” he explained.
Bitcoin has already soared 32% in November alone, and has more than doubled this year. It would need to rise another 10% to reach $100,000.
However, there are signs that the post-election rally is stalling as the stock market has had a down week. Still, key components of the “Trump trade” are soaring, including Tesla stock, Treasury yields and the dollar.
Meanwhile, Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Wrecker Capital, told Fortune last week that he was optimistic that Bitcoin would soon reach the $100,000 milestone.
“I’m glad we achieved our goal by the end of the year,” he said. “It’s very likely we’ll get it by the end of the month, but we’ll see.”
