Americans will finish voting in the 2024 presidential election on November 5th, but YouGov polling and modeling show that American voters are sharply divided between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. It turned out.
But that doesn’t mean that all individual subgroups of Americans are equally divided. YouGov’s extensive compilation of public opinion polls from recent months paints a picture of how Americans are predictably and unexpectedly divided on the 2024 election. Mr. Harris works well with atheists, renters, people with college degrees, and even people who like to watch movies in theaters and sleep over. Mr. Trump does well with Protestants, married people, and people who live in rural areas. People who have been in a car accident or feel like they’ve seen a UFO.
Data for this article was compiled from multiple polls conducted between August 26 and October 30. During this period, the overall shape of the lace changed from time to time. Therefore, all numbers reflect the relative bias of that group at the time of the poll compared to all registered voters in the same poll. For example, a poll conducted between September 27 and 30 showed Ms. Harris leading Mr. Trump by 3 points. The poll also found that registered voters who know a federal employee support Harris by 8 points. Thus, people who know federal employees are reported here to be 5 points more likely to support Harris than voters.
Many of the categories analyzed here are closely correlated with other characteristics. For example, married people are more likely to have children under the age of 18 than unmarried people. We did not attempt to explain how the various questions are related to each other, nor do we make claims about the extent to which particular characteristics cause support for Harris or Trump.
First, here are some relatively standard demographic breakdowns that show the relative support for Trump and Harris.
But YouGov also regularly asks off-beat non-political questions. We collected 25 of the most interesting questions from the past few months and looked at how they relate to relative support for Trump and Harris.
As part of the bonus breakdown, we did the same with a survey of Americans between September 24 and 27 asking them about their choices for Best Picture winners and nominees. Here’s how Americans who say they “love” the following movies lean in the presidential election compared to all registered voters:
— Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this article
Check out the voting results for this article.
October 26-29, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll August 26-30, 2024 YouGov Poll September 6-9, 2024 YouGov Poll September 24-27, 2024 YouGov Poll 4-6 October 2024 YouGov Poll 9-12 October 2024 YouGov Poll 10-14 October 2024 YouGov Poll 11-14 October 2024 YouGov Poll 2024-10 YouGov poll from March 28th to March 30th
Methodology: The Economist/YouGov poll was conducted Oct. 26-29, 2024 among 1,587 U.S. adults. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to represent the adult U.S. population. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, turnout and presidential vote count in the 2020 election, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets are based on the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is a respondent’s most recent response given before November 1, 2022, weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democrat, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately 3%.
Each of the other polls included in this article was conducted online among more than 1,000 U.S. adults. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to represent the adult U.S. population. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, turnout and presidential vote count in the 2020 election, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets are based on the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is a respondent’s most recent response given before November 1, 2022, weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democrat, 31% Republican). The margin of error across samples for each vote is approximately 4%.
Image: Getty (Chip Somodevilla/Staff)
What do you think about elections, American politics in general, and everything else?Say your opinion, join YouGov panels, and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here.
