Chandler, Arizona
CNN
—
David Tapia has watched election after election from the sidelines, unperturbed and with little interest in politics. It wasn’t until this year that Donald Trump’s candidacy inspired him to become politically conscious.
He plans to cast his first vote for Kamala Harris.
“From both sides, to be honest, I’m not a Trump supporter. “I’m not,” Tapia, 42, said. I think that’s really what’s right and what’s wrong. ”
The balance between Arizonans who share Tapia’s views and those who disagree could go a long way in determining the outcome of the battle for the state’s 11 electoral votes. This is one of the most competitive battlegrounds in the country, and Latino men are coveted by both sides.
Early voting has already begun here, with a parade of presidential candidates and their running mates and surrogates vying for the lead in a race that some polls suggest is close. It’s flooding into the state.
“Arizona is the blue wall of the Southwest,” said Tucson Mayor Regina Romero (D).
Abortion and immigration are factors in elections across the country, but the issues are clashing in Arizona as in other battleground states. Voters are deciding how to vote to guarantee abortion rights in the state constitution and other questions about whether to make immigration violations a state crime rather than just a federal crime.
Trump is scheduled to attend a rally in Prescott, a city in central Arizona, on Sunday. Harris spent Thursday and Friday in the Phoenix area, pleading with her thousands of supporters to consider the results of the presidential election.
“This is not 2016 or 2020,” the vice president said. “The stakes are even higher.”
Four years ago, Trump lost Arizona by 10,457 votes out of more than 3.3 million cast, one of the narrowest defeats in a battleground state. Joe Biden becomes the first Democrat to win here since Bill Clinton in 1996 and the second since Harry Truman in 1948.
Republican Vice Presidential candidate J.D. Vance on Wednesday at a stop in Tucson cited the 2020 election results and urged supporters to dispel skepticism about early voting programs.
“11,000 votes. That’s the difference last time,” Vance told supporters at Tucson Speedway. This is an unusual admission for Trump of defeat, and many of his supporters here still have doubts. “We have to go out there and take advantage of it.”
In the first presidential election since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade, abortion is literally on the ballot in Arizona.
Strategists from both parties told CNN that a constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights is widely expected to pass. It’s far more uncertain whether the bill, Prop. 139, will bring people to the polls who might not have voted otherwise, which could benefit Ms. Harris.
“Arizona, we need to fight this fight on every front,” Harris told supporters here Thursday night. “You have a chance to vote YES on Proposition 139 at the state level to protect your right to make your own health care decisions.”
The measure provides for “basic abortion treatment” until the fetus is viable, around the 24th week of pregnancy, with exceptions where a health care provider determines that the mother’s life or mental health is at risk. “rights” will be created.
“This has been a right we’ve had for 50 years,” said retiree Donna Ross, who attended Harris’ rally and said she believed the measure would help increase voter turnout in the presidential election. spoke. “It’s crazy to think that you can accept that right away. Who would do that?”
The chaotic politics of abortion are one of the key issues at stake in the final chapter of the presidential campaign, and it is far from certain that Proposition 139 will give Harris a decisive advantage over Trump. .
Laura Dent of the Arizona Abortion Access Group helped collect more than 800,000 voter signatures to put abortion rights on the ballot, with only Democrats supporting the amendment. He said they are coming from all political walks of life, and not from all walks of life.
“This is something that resonates with independents, Democrats and Republicans,” said Dent, the group’s campaign manager. “That support would be greatly appreciated.”
Mayra Rodriguez, a former Planned Parenthood clinic manager turned anti-abortion activist, drives around the Phoenix area in her large RV, warning people to vote “no” on Proposition 139. She said she strongly opposes Harris and supports Trump. , but did not believe he was sufficiently supportive of the anti-abortion movement.
“I can’t believe he is,” Rodriguez said. “I always tell people, unless Jesus is on the ballot, we have to choose the lesser of two evils.”
When asked who that was, she replied, “For me, it’s Trump.”
But not all Trump supporters agree.
Earlier this week, Candy Perdue said while walking to an event in Vance wearing a Trump hat and campaign buttons that she supports Proposition 139 and that the government should not have anything to do with it. He said he was thinking about it.
“I’m against abortion,” Perdue said. “But I’m going to vote for Proposition 139 because I think every woman has the right to decide what she wants and what she can live with.”
The immigration voting bill, Proposition 314, adds a new dimension to the long-running debate over border security. Republican state lawmakers voted to put the issue on the ballot rather than collect signatures.
The measure has received less attention than the abortion proposal, even though border security is a top priority in the state, which shares a 370-mile border with Mexico. Virtually no money is being spent on advertising compared to the abortion proposals that dominate the airwaves here.
According to Arizona’s Secretary of State, Republicans had a six-point lead over Democrats in voter registration in late July. New numbers after the Oct. 7 voter registration deadline have not yet been released.
In Arizona, each campaign has spent more than $117 million on advertising, with Democrats outspending Republicans between $65 million and $52 million, according to data from AdImpact.
Arizonans will vote in person or by mail on Election Day in Arizona, which will be held every day through Nov. 5, with more than 855,000 Latinos expected to vote, according to the National Association of Latino Election and Appointed Officials. has been done. Voter turnout in 2020 increased by 58% from 2016.
Nearly one in four Arizona voters is expected to be Latino.
To win, Trump will need to do well among registered Republicans and win a significant share of independents, who make up about a quarter of the electorate. This camp taps into voters who prefer President Trump, even if they haven’t regularly participated in recent elections.
Harris is trying to thread a more difficult needle. In addition to Democrats, it seeks to capture a large portion of independent voters and a small percentage of Republicans, with a particular focus on members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Mormon church.
About 5% of Arizona adults, or more than 400,000 people, are Latter-day Saints, according to the Pew Research Center.
Mesa Mayor John Giles, an LDS member who heads the pro-Harris group Arizona Republicans, said the election “will be decided by who gets the better votes.” He called on families to help their relatives fill out the four-page, 80-question ballot.
“Do we recognize the urgency and great responsibility we have as voters in Arizona?” Giles said Tuesday at an event with her husband, the vice president, Doug Emhoff, who was also campaigning here. asked supporters. “As it is in Arizona, it will be in this election as well.”
CNN’s Veronica Stracqualursi and David Wright contributed to this report.
