Alan Lichtman, a prominent American historian and political scientist with an accurate record of predicting US presidential elections, predicts that Kamala Harris will have a higher approval rating than Donald Trump in next month’s polls. predicted that the country would have its first female president.
Lichtman, a renowned professor at American University, developed a predictive system known as “Keys to the White House” that has accurately determined the outcome of every U.S. presidential election since 1984.
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Lichtman developed the system in 1981 in collaboration with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Kaylis Volokh, applying prediction techniques that Kaylis Volokh had designed for earthquake prediction.
There are a total of 13 keys in the system. The political scientist predicts a loss if six of the 13 keys go against the incumbent White House party, and a win if fewer.
In an interview with ANI, Lichtman said there are only four keys that work against the incumbent Democrat, and that means Donald Trump will not return to the White House.
“The White House party (Democrats) loses a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2022, so they lose key number 1, the key of delegation. They lose key number 3, the key of incumbency, because the incumbent president is not running. They lose key number 12, the key to incumbency, the key to charisma, because no matter what you think about Harris, she’s only been a candidate for a little while, and the Middle East is the key to foreign policy failure. I have lost key number 11. “It’s a disaster, a humanitarian crisis with no end in sight,” the historian said.
“This is four keys down and two keys short of what would be needed to predict Donald Trump returning to the White House and Harris losing. “We predict that we will have a new president, our first female president, and our first president.”A president of mixed Asian and African descent predicts that America is quickly becoming a majority-minority country. “It’s something to do,” he said.
Lichtman said the factors working in favor of Democrats are that there is no recession in an election year, third-party campaigns are weak, and Republicans have failed to prosecute scandals against Democrats.
“Well, like I said, they’re only losing four, which means they’re gaining nine keys. Because Democrats have united around Harris. The key to the contest, because RFK Jr.’s campaign failed, is the key to the short-term economy, because there is no recession in an election year, and the key to the long-term economy, because real per capita growth under the Biden administration. They hold the key to policy change, as the rate is significantly higher than the average for the past two terms. Because the Biden administration’s policies are fundamentally different from those of the Trump administration, and the Republicans, who have spent four years trying to pit the scandal against Biden, hold the key to social unrest. It’s empty,” Lichtman said.
“They won the keys to foreign policy success because, as many expected, Putin conquered Ukraine, threatened America’s NATO allies, and undermined America’s national security. No matter what you think of Trump as a showman, he is the once-in-a-generation guy who holds the charisma key to the challenger. That’s because he doesn’t fit the key definition of an across-the-board inspirational candidate, with an approval rating of just 41 percent in his four years as president, the lowest in history and his second consecutive election. “We lost the people’s vote by a total of 10 million votes. That’s why there are nine keys to supporting the Democratic Party,” he further said.
Vice President Kamala Harris is the first female, first Black, and first Asian American vice president. If elected, the 59-year-old would become the first female president in history.
She is running against former President Donald Trump, who is seeking a historic return to the White House after a bitter exit in 2020. If Trump wins, he will be the first president in more than 100 years to serve as president twice. Nonconsecutive presidential terms.
The US presidential election is scheduled to be held on November 5th.
Asked whether there could be a different winner between Democrats and Republicans in terms of electoral or popular votes, Lichtman said he had no predictions on that point.
He also backed Harris’ prediction of victory, stressing that the key remains the same in the battleground states that essentially determine the outcome of the U.S. election.
The political scientist also called the October Surprise, a major event that changed the outcome of polls ahead of the November polls, “the biggest myth” in American history.
“The October Surprise is the greatest myth in American history. I’ve predicted every election, 10 elections, and this is the 11th, long before the October Surprise. The Greatest October Surprise of All Time. That was in 2016, when Donald Trump was taped on a TV show bragging about sexually assaulting women and many pundits said, “He’s done, he’s done.” “But my prediction of Trump’s victory proved correct.”
He added that Trump is an inward-looking leader who opposes the collective security of America’s allies, while Harris is a “typical” American who believes in working with allies. He said he was the president. He also said the current US position is “significantly better” than it was during the four years of the Trump administration.
“Trump is an America-first president or candidate. Either way, he believes in turning inward. He opposes collective security with our allies. It has destroyed the Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies are very concerned about a Trump presidency.” Harris is a classic example of “believing in collective security and standing alone.” This is a president who believes in working with allies without trying to act,” Lichtman said.
“In fact, in terms of perceptions of the United States, our standing in the world is much better than it was during the Trump administration, when we were basically trashing our allies,” he added.
Original publication date: October 14, 2024 | 9:42 a.m. Pacific Time