Who will win the Heisman Trophy this college football season? (Gregory Hodge/Yahoo Sports)
It probably wouldn’t be a bold bet to predict a quarterback will win the Heisman Trophy come December.
Only four players other than quarterbacks have won the award since the turn of the 21st century, and that trend is likely to continue this season: All 22 of the top candidates for the award are quarterbacks, according to BetMGM odds.
Here, we look at the state of the Heisman Trophy race ahead of the start of the 2024 season. Many of the candidates for the award will be quarterbacks for teams that are considered likely to participate in the College Football Playoff, which will be expanded at the end of the season.
For the new College Football Playoff viewer’s guide, click here. (Taylor Wilhelm/Yahoo Sports)
favorite
There aren’t many surprises in this group. Each player is the quarterback for a team that is a national title contender entering the 2024 season. Gabriel emerged as a favorite this summer after Bo Nix set the NCAA passing record for completion percentage with the Ducks in 2023. It would be a lot to ask Gabriel to break Nix’s record, but he would be a great fit for an Oregon offense loaded with talent heading into its first Big Ten season.
Beck was impressive in his first year as the Bulldogs’ starter and is expected to get even better with experience. Ewers missed out on a chance to play one more NFL season in Austin after a College Football Playoff appearance and a breakout season. Milroe should improve considerably as the 2023 season progresses and is an intriguing player to watch in new Alabama head coach Cullen DeBoer’s offense.
Like Gabriel, Dart has risen in the rankings recently as Ole Miss is favored to win the SEC title and make the playoffs. Howard transferred from Kansas State to Ohio State and the Buckeyes are hoping he’s the missing piece to their national title run.
Next Layer
Iamareva has only started one game in his career, but he enters this season as the No. 8 favorite to win. He had a great game in the Citrus Bowl, and Tennessee’s offense should be great with the former five-star player replacing Joe Milton. If Tennessee makes the playoffs, Iamareva will be a big reason why.
Nussmeyer replaces current Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels at Louisiana State and will be training a new group of receivers. There will also be a new offensive coordinator. Mike Denbrock, who led Louisiana State’s offense last season, is now at Notre Dame and will be directing Leonard’s play. The former Duke quarterback struggled with injuries in 2023. If he can stay healthy, Notre Dame could be in for a big season.
Johnson’s emergence late in the 2023 season pushed Howard into the transfer portal, where he could become the fastest starting quarterback in college football. Weigman had a brief stint as the Aggies’ starter in 2023 but was hampered by a season-ending foot injury. His health will likely be a factor in whether he can lead College Station to 10 wins.
Ward, meanwhile, is being tasked with leading the Hurricanes’ playoff push. Miami acquired Ward from Washington State after ramping up its player portal during the offseason and keeping an eye on the NFL Draft. As the season approaches, Ward’s odds have steadily declined and he is no longer the front-runner for the award.
Expectations are high for Coral Gables this season after quarterback Cam Ward transferred from Washington State to Miami. (AP Photo/Marta Lavandier, File)
Sleeper QB
If you’re looking for quarterbacks from this group to emerge as Heisman Trophy candidates, Arnold, Cook and Allers seem like the front-runners. The Missouri and Penn State quarterbacks all play for teams with serious playoff aspirations and schedules that make a 10-win season a realistic possibility. Arnold struggled in his Alamo Bowl debut, but should be much better after spending the offseason as the Sooners’ starter.
Daniels was the 2023 preseason Big 12 player of the year but has been limited by a back injury, so it will be exciting to see what he can do when healthy.
Sanders, on the other hand, is in this tier simply because bettors are attracted to Colorado. A lot has to go right for Colorado for him to be a Heisman Trophy contender, and we all saw how quickly things went wrong for the Buffaloes in 2023.
Long Shot QB
Arizona QB Noah Fifita (+4000)
Utah QB Cam Rising (+4000)
USC QB Miller Moss (+4000)
Florida State QB DJ Uiagalelei (+4000)
Clemson QB Cade Klubnick (+5000)
USC QB Jayden Maiava (+8000)
Yes, there are two USC QBs in this group. The competition in Los Angeles was the biggest of the offseason, as Maiava, a transfer from UNLV (and short stint at Georgia), came in to try to push Moss into the starting spot. Moss ultimately won that battle, taking over the role left by top NFL Draft pick Caleb Williams.
Rising will return for his seventh season of college football after missing 2023 with a knee injury suffered in last season’s Rose Bowl. Utah is the preseason favorite to win the Big 12 Conference. Fifita lost head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington, but Arizona should still be very strong under former San Jose State coach Brent Brennan.
Uiagalelei took over as head coach from Florida State after replacing Jordan Travis but got off to a tough start as the Seminoles lost to Georgia Tech in their season opener on Saturday. It will be interesting to see how head coach Mike Norvell adjusts the offense to accommodate Uiagalelei’s skill set.
Klubnik had a shaky season last year in his first season in Garrett Riley’s offense, and another offseason to acclimate could be a big benefit.
Oklahoma State running back Ollie Gordon II led the nation in rushing yards last season. (Brian Baer/Getty Images)
Top non-QBs
Yes, you’d have to go as low as 50-1 to find a non-quarterback selected first. And it’s hard to make many of these players eligible for the Heisman Trophy. Hunter is a phenomenal, rare athlete, but whether he’s selected will depend on the Buffaloes seriously improving. Have you seen the 2024 schedule?
Judkins was plagued by injuries in 2023, regressing from a stellar freshman season at Ole Miss. He and Henderson are the best one-two punch at running back in college football. Will either of them get enough carries to be a Heisman Trophy contender?
Gordon is unlikely to serve any suspension following his offseason DUI arrest and, as a result, may be the favorite among this group to win the Heisman Trophy, rushing for more than 1,700 yards last season and looking to be a driving force behind the Cowboys’ offense again in 2024.
Barden enters this season as arguably the best wide receiver in college football, but he’ll have to have a DeVonta Smith-type season to win the award. Edwards was huge for the Wolverines in the national title game after a lackluster season. If that’s a sign of Blake Collum’s NFL move in 2024, he’s worth a gamble.
prediction
The reason is simple: Beck should be the best player on the best team in the toughest conference in the country. Georgia is the overwhelming preseason favorite in the SEC despite a schedule that features Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss. A big reason for that is Beck. He had a great first season as a starter in 2023 and should be even better in 2024. He’s poised to have a breakout season that could make him the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.