Have we reached our population peak?

As the new year begins, we may be one step closer to peak population.

The world’s population is expected to peak at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, earlier than previously predicted, according to the United Nations’ latest projections. After that, it is predicted that by 2100, the number of people will reach a plateau at approximately 10.2 million. Experts blame a more imminent peak on lower birth rates and lower fertility rates, particularly in “ultra-low” fertility countries such as China, Italy and Spain.

“The earlier peak and decline is a sign of hope,” said Lee Junhua, the United Nations’ under-secretary-general for economic and social affairs, as leveling could reduce environmental damage.

Aging of the world’s population

Birth rates are declining globally, and governments’ pro-natalist policies have “almost completely failed to change that fact,” Box said. As a result, the UN’s forecasts may be off by a large margin, but “change is generally built in,” he said.

Debate over population policy often leads to “culture wars” and heated debates, but a phenomenon known as demographic momentum, in which populations continue to temporarily decline even as birth rates rise, means that such battles are “largely beside the point.” ” means.

In any case, the overall population will continue to age before reaching its peak. And since the pandemic has lowered global life expectancy, “this is partly a success story.” But the end result is a “global aging” in which there will be more elderly people than children by the 2070s. “We are just beginning to grapple with what an aging and shrinking world will look like. All we can do is adapt.”

“The projection keeps disappearing.”

Some analysts think the peak will come sooner. Population will eventually peak, but “predictions keep coming off,” John Byrne-Murdoch said in the Financial Times. Projections by the United Nations and other organizations tend to underestimate the rate of decline in the birth rate. And often they do not take into account small fluctuations in global trends.

Jesús Fernández Villaverde, a researcher and professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania, said the overall impact of these mistakes means the world’s population is on the path of the United Nations’ “low fertility” path. he told FT. This means that the world’s population could reach its peak of around 9 billion people as early as 2054, 30 years ahead of schedule.

Predicting the trajectory of the world’s population is no easy task, and “even small perturbations today can compound to form large rifts,” Vern Murdoch said. But perhaps the next predictions “should come with a health warning. These predictions are very vague and based on frameworks that were true in the past but may not be true now. ”

“Use with caution. You’ll probably err on the low side.”